Uncommon-Pajamas — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

42.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$804

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-04-29

last 07-10 04:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$1

Politics

20% 50% $-26

Sports

10% 50% +$3

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

8% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No		+16	$10	78¢	$13	+$3	07-06 16:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	9	$198	283	0	+283	open	—	05-03 23:19
pep quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 09 2026 2pt21	2	$79	89	89	+0	open	—	07-09 06:15
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	4	$55	71	71	+0	open	—	06-21 20:12
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$47	83	0	+83	open	—	06-01 16:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	3	$34	24	15	+9	open	—	05-16 22:26
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$31	80	0	+80	open	—	06-19 10:14
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$30	32	0	+32	Yes	$-30	05-02 19:20
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$22	28	28	+0	open	—	05-12 22:14
ctas quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 15 2026 1pt23	2	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	07-10 04:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$21	21	14	+8	open	—	05-24 02:27
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	1	$20	31	0	+31	open	—	06-03 14:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	06-04 18:11
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	2	$19	16	16	+0	open	—	06-21 20:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$18	27	27	+0	open	—	05-11 09:14
cag quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 15 2026 0pt46	2	$15	37	0	+37	open	—	07-07 08:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	1	$14	45	0	+45	open	—	05-14 01:15
mlb tb mia 2026 06 06 total 6pt5	2	$12	16	16	+0	open	—	06-06 20:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-18 16:10
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	05-04 13:23
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5	1	$10	19	0	+19	open	—	05-03 17:18
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	05-11 14:35
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	07-06 16:16
israel closes its airspace by june 10	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	06-09 22:13
James Comey arrested by April 30?	1	$9	15	0	+15	open	—	04-29 12:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	1	$7	11	0	+11	No	+$4	05-04 17:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$7	24	0	+24	open	—	06-03 08:10
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5	1	$5	9	0	+9	Under	+$4	05-05 10:23
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-11 01:03
mlb bal bos 2026 06 04 total 9pt5	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-04 00:17
mlb tb hou 2026 07 03 total 8pt5	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	07-03 11:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 04:15:43	ctas quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 15 2026 1pt23	Yes	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0x206dae…
07-09 12:20:11	ctas quarterly earnings gaap eps 07 15 2026 1pt23	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x73877b…
07-09 06:15:31	pep quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 09 2026 2pt21	No	SELL	89	81¢	$72	0x048444…
07-08 06:19:19	pep quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 09 2026 2pt21	No	BUY	89	8¢	$7	0xba7b66…
07-07 08:15:52	cag quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 15 2026 0pt46	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xfaafb4…
07-06 16:16:29	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	60¢	$10	0x17db43…
07-06 08:17:59	cag quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 15 2026 0pt46	No	BUY	23	42¢	$10	0x903c5e…
07-05 18:03:38	mlb sf col 2026 07 05 total 12pt5	Over	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x6c5dcf…
07-03 11:13:29	mlb tb hou 2026 07 03 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd7d710…
06-22 00:04:01	mlb bos col 2026 06 22 f5 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x88f9b4…
06-21 20:13:14	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	SELL	16	71¢	$11	0xad8b05…
06-21 20:12:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	36	50¢	$18	0x3d40f2…
06-21 20:12:35	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	SELL	34	50¢	$17	0xb82c1c…
06-21 00:14:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xcbe555…
06-20 20:10:37	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	36	22¢	$8	0x4973b9…
06-20 10:16:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	34	34¢	$12	0x4f8b94…
06-19 10:14:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x297ce9…
06-19 06:08:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	23	42¢	$10	0xc3f197…
06-19 02:17:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	35	32¢	$11	0x9d9c1a…
06-18 16:10:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xb20650…
06-09 22:13:57	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xb2d4c4…
06-06 20:07:18	mlb tb mia 2026 06 06 total 6pt5	Under	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0x35fb58…
06-06 20:04:33	mlb tb mia 2026 06 06 total 6pt5	Under	BUY	16	37¢	$6	0x081572…
06-04 18:11:45	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x36e29b…
06-04 04:28:24	mlb sd phi 2026 06 04 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb57e0e…
06-04 00:17:34	mlb bal bos 2026 06 04 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x68a19d…
06-03 14:03:05	Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9f2719…
06-03 08:10:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	28¢	$7	0xbac136…
06-03 02:14:18	New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xeac953…
06-03 02:13:46	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xb1be1e…
06-03 02:13:25	Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x07d279…
06-01 16:13:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	57¢	$47	0x2ca719…
05-24 02:27:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	43¢	$6	0xf5e223…
05-17 13:21:24	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x14ebae…
05-16 22:26:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x11cf9e…
05-14 01:15:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	Yes	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0x4bf49e…
05-12 22:14:08	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	28	43¢	$12	0x69f607…
05-12 16:14:18	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0x7efe4d…
05-11 14:35:03	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x481f18…
05-11 09:14:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	30¢	$8	0xdb866b…
05-11 01:36:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xdc1b26…
05-11 01:03:07	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x27316b…
05-10 16:42:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	36¢	$10	0xb1c6b7…
05-10 13:23:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xa6ae99…
05-10 07:20:55	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x935cbe…
05-10 05:33:55	Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xe9a36a…
05-05 10:23:42	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8866a5…
05-05 09:29:08	Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x40235c…
05-04 17:16:38	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	11	63¢	$7	0xf91707…
05-04 13:23:02	Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xa74e6d…
05-03 23:19:40	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	47¢	$9	0xb052dd…
05-03 22:20:02	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	62¢	$25	0x075e63…
05-03 22:18:56	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	61¢	$14	0xac5500…
05-03 21:30:04	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	69¢	$17	0x9c0f2a…
05-03 21:22:12	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	69¢	$33	0x5aa64b…
05-03 17:18:20	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5	Over	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xfaaf4d…
05-03 14:28:08	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0xb4733d…
05-03 12:20:46	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x83a5a0…
05-03 00:16:10	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xf63c11…
05-02 23:21:10	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	78¢	$30	0x4336fa…
05-02 19:20:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xaf4eba…
05-01 09:23:16	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0xc99922…
04-29 12:31:38	James Comey arrested by April 30?	Yes	BUY	15	64¢	$9	0x995808…