Realized P&L
-$107
Unrealized P&L
+$192
Hit rate
16.6%
Resolved
10
Trades
13,150
lifetime
Volume
$409.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$1.65K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 07-20 18:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
55% 33% $-107
Other
40%
Tech
5%
Crypto
0%
Sports
0% 50% $-1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 259 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +649 $286 99¢ $639 +$353 06-26 19:16
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +260 $119 68¢ $175 +$56 06-12 14:29
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +164 $149 100¢ $164 +$15 06-21 12:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +116 $75 82¢ $95 +$19 07-07 19:28
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +100 $89 88¢ $88 $-1 07-04 22:59
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -100 $-84 88¢ $-88 $-3 06-23 01:23
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +65 $43 86¢ $56 +$13 06-25 05:16
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +172 $66 32¢ $56 $-10 06-06 14:55
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +171 $84 32¢ $54 $-30 06-29 02:24
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +50 $38 86¢ $43 +$5 06-25 04:36
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -35 $-33 96¢ $-33 $-1 06-24 20:38
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +252 $38 12¢ $31 $-6 06-20 19:21
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -163 $-133 18¢ $-28 +$105 07-09 21:00
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -50 $-22 40¢ $-20 +$2 07-11 00:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +100 $31 18¢ $18 $-13 06-30 15:54
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +25 $24 68¢ $17 $-7 07-05 22:12
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes +100 $23 12¢ $12 $-11 06-23 23:19
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No -11 $-11 82¢ $-9 +$2 07-11 18:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +495 $299 $7 $-292 07-18 17:47
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No +7 $4 88¢ $6 +$2 07-13 02:50
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -3 $3 74¢ $-2 $-5 07-18 17:31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes -15 $3 14¢ $-2 $-5 06-24 06:33
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +1 $-3 82¢ $1 +$3 06-23 14:39