Realized P&L
-$107
Unrealized P&L
+$354
Hit rate
16.6%
Resolved
10
Trades
12,031
lifetime
Volume
$367.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$31
Open exposure
$3.29K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 06-30 09:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 8 days
Categories
Politics
57% 33% $-107
Other
39%
Tech
3%
Crypto
0%
Sports
0% 50% $-1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 259 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No +534 $441 100¢ $533 +$92 06-12 04:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +649 $286 64¢ $412 +$125 06-26 19:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +300 $253 82¢ $248 $-6 06-29 02:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +595 $305 36¢ $217 $-88 06-26 20:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +170 $113 100¢ $169 +$56 06-25 15:31
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +164 $149 100¢ $164 +$15 06-21 12:21
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No -159 $-170 100¢ $-159 +$11 06-16 07:43
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +260 $119 59¢ $153 +$34 06-12 14:29
US strike on Mexico by December 31? No +155 $136 81¢ $125 $-11 06-26 19:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +101 $92 100¢ $101 +$9 06-14 14:52
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -100 $-84 84¢ $-84 +$1 06-23 01:23
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +79 $70 100¢ $79 +$9 06-20 18:46
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? No +125 $84 58¢ $73 $-11 06-30 09:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No -72 $-60 100¢ $-72 $-12 06-22 04:57
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +171 $84 42¢ $71 $-13 06-29 02:24
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +172 $66 41¢ $71 +$4 06-06 14:55
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -261 $-155 24¢ $-63 +$92 06-23 01:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +84 $57 72¢ $60 +$3 06-25 08:09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +200 $61 29¢ $57 $-4 06-28 13:31
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +65 $43 80¢ $52 +$9 06-25 05:16
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -50 $-49 100¢ $-50 $-1 06-28 02:03
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +252 $38 16¢ $42 +$4 06-20 19:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +47 $23 86¢ $41 +$18 06-27 06:25
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No +50 $38 80¢ $40 +$2 06-25 04:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No +40 $19 100¢ $40 +$21 06-10 06:53
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +46 $40 76¢ $35 $-4 06-30 06:39
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -35 $-33 97¢ $-34 $-1 06-24 20:38
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No +22 $21 99¢ $22 +$1 06-27 01:56
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes +100 $23 19¢ $19 $-4 06-23 23:19
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? No +9 $7 84¢ $8 +$1 06-30 09:01