Stark-Muscatel — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$834

Unrealized P&L

+$21

Hit rate

44.5%

Resolved (30d)

576

Trades (30d)

648

1,698 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$9.02K

$38.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$44

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 11-03 12:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Crypto

96% 46% -$5,453

Other

4% 43% -$159

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
XRP Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	—	+22	$11	99¢	$22	+$11	11-03 10:40
Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	—	+22	$11	98¢	$21	+$10	11-03 13:26
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+10	$1	8¢	$1	+$0	11-03 12:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	28	$2.1K	4,390	0	+4,390	Up	-$2,134	04-30 15:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$1.1K	2,124	0	+2,124	Down	-$1,098	04-30 14:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	6	$525	592	450	+141	Up	-$75	07-21 13:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 13:55 UTC	6	$474	567	373	+194	Up	-$106	08-24 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	11	$425	830	0	+830	Up	-$425	04-30 14:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	5	$389	463	319	+144	Down	+$68	07-21 13:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-28 14:55 UTC	4	$299	399	199	+200	Up	-$101	08-28 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-07 13:20 UTC	3	$297	395	198	+196	Up	+$94	09-07 06:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 13:30 UTC	3	$297	392	196	+196	Down	-$103	08-27 08:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 14:25 UTC	3	$256	328	188	+140	Up	-$72	08-07 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 13:05 UTC	3	$256	326	188	+138	Down	+$66	08-07 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 13:10 UTC	3	$256	326	188	+138	Down	+$66	08-07 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 13:00 UTC	3	$256	324	187	+137	Down	+$65	08-07 11:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-24 14:40 UTC	4	$240	344	137	+207	Down	+$101	08-24 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 15:05 UTC	2	$220	218	218	+0	Down	-$2	07-22 13:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$200	394	0	+394	Up	-$200	10-07 14:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	1	$177	347	0	+347	Down	-$177	04-30 14:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:40 UTC	4	$159	316	0	+316	Up	-$159	08-21 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:20 UTC	2	$159	312	0	+312	Down	-$159	08-21 08:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:05 UTC	2	$159	312	0	+312	Up	+$153	08-21 08:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 13:40 UTC	2	$159	308	0	+308	Up	+$149	08-21 08:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:30 UTC	1	$158	312	0	+312	Up	-$158	08-21 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-21 14:15 UTC	1	$158	310	0	+310	Down	-$158	08-21 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 14:30 UTC	1	$143	284	0	+284	Up	-$143	08-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 14:40 UTC	1	$143	280	0	+280	Down	-$143	08-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 14:35 UTC	1	$143	284	0	+284	Down	+$141	08-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 14:15 UTC	1	$143	280	0	+280	Down	-$143	08-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 13:40 UTC	1	$143	284	0	+284	Up	-$143	08-20 08:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	5	$138	192	84	+108	Up	-$56	10-06 14:26
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	4	$132	158	105	+53	Down	+$23	10-21 09:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 13:32:28	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-04 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x772e5d…
11-03 13:32:13	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-04 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x4a95f4…
11-03 13:31:58	BNB Up or Down - November 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x7d01e7…
11-03 13:27:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x15ca26…
11-03 13:26:52	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xa1afd9…
11-03 13:26:25	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xe81437…
11-03 13:25:40	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0xd3e5cc…
11-03 13:23:30	XRP Up or Down - November 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x8d50c3…
11-03 13:21:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-04 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0x9f38bd…
11-03 13:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	53	51¢	$27	0xe2506f…
11-03 12:14:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x2f71cf…
11-03 11:38:43	BNB Up or Down - November 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x8932e0…
11-03 11:38:16	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x2c7244…
11-03 11:38:06	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x14b749…
11-03 11:37:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x1bae85…
11-03 11:37:42	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xc8c81e…
11-03 11:36:31	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x96b457…
11-03 11:36:13	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xdfb3aa…
11-03 11:36:01	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x1a34a4…
11-03 11:35:51	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xabb81f…
11-03 11:34:04	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xb67562…
11-03 11:33:55	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xcc4c46…
11-03 11:32:46	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x614a3c…
11-03 11:32:24	Solana Up or Down - November 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xa7e4d2…
11-03 11:31:27	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xff1e76…
11-03 11:31:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x41d041…
11-03 11:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x0fb02e…
11-03 10:44:30	BNB Up or Down - November 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x4fb3ee…
11-03 10:43:34	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x0c1ca4…
11-03 10:43:18	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x4d5aa0…
11-03 10:43:03	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xd15e51…
11-03 10:42:49	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xd4fada…
11-03 10:42:30	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xf5ea37…
11-03 10:41:24	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x4b8885…
11-03 10:41:12	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xb616d6…
11-03 10:40:48	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x076abb…
11-03 10:40:25	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xb40542…
11-03 10:14:42	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xd7206a…
11-03 10:14:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x84ed9b…
11-03 10:14:00	Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x66a399…
11-03 10:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x845582…
11-03 10:11:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x00a8d1…
11-03 10:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xa9f50f…
11-03 05:50:49	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-03 13:20 UTC	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xc98b06…
11-03 05:50:34	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-03 12:55 UTC	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xf6ed17…
11-03 05:50:15	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-03 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xfb8901…
11-03 05:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-03 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x18aac1…
11-03 05:44:45	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x51f67a…
11-03 05:44:16	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x1f1cd2…
11-03 05:43:52	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x73a1dc…
11-03 05:43:25	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x82293c…
11-03 05:42:48	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 22:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x21312c…
11-03 05:42:33	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x48f66d…
11-03 05:42:13	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6159bc…
11-03 05:41:43	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5f6836…
11-03 05:41:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-03 10:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xbcf491…
11-03 05:39:48	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd8842d…
11-03 05:39:31	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x465c7e…
11-02 12:05:45	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-11-03 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x3544cb…
11-02 12:05:40	BNB Up or Down - November 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xb235ec…
11-02 12:03:28	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 3, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x3b5f75…
11-02 12:02:43	XRP Up or Down - November 3, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x11b9fd…
11-02 11:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x28dc41…
11-02 10:52:09	BNB Up or Down - November 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x6ddd7b…
11-02 10:51:57	BNB Up or Down - November 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xd1876e…
11-02 10:51:42	BNB Up or Down - November 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x0c8cac…
11-02 10:51:22	BNB Up or Down - November 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x71c13f…
11-02 10:50:34	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x047675…
11-02 10:50:24	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xdd70a7…
11-02 10:50:10	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x774c25…
11-02 10:49:58	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x26c734…
11-02 10:49:46	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x98fd93…
11-02 10:49:36	Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x955af3…
11-02 10:48:04	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x3dac61…
11-02 10:47:48	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x84bf29…
11-02 10:47:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x76a9bb…
11-02 10:47:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xe4893e…
11-02 10:47:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x1f8b13…
11-02 10:46:49	Dogecoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x40e2c3…
11-02 10:44:40	XRP Up or Down - November 2, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x6178b0…
11-02 10:44:16	XRP Up or Down - November 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x05ea4e…
11-02 10:42:57	Solana Up or Down - November 2, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xf876c5…
11-02 10:42:40	Solana Up or Down - November 2, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x875b5d…
11-02 10:41:31	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x336821…
11-02 10:41:18	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x491c7c…
11-02 10:41:06	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0xbc66cf…
11-02 10:40:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x14b9dd…
11-02 10:39:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x697823…
11-02 10:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0xe6aa32…
11-02 10:38:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	22	50¢	$11	0x7173c9…
11-02 10:37:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x04fca8…
11-02 06:38:55	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x273cce…
11-02 06:38:43	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xfb9142…
11-02 06:38:25	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x631b5c…
11-02 06:38:12	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 11:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x571069…
11-02 06:37:48	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x08b098…
11-02 06:33:22	BNB Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9c7d87…
11-02 06:32:57	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc22d92…
11-02 06:32:40	HYPE Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xbf7fde…
11-02 06:29:54	XRP Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-02 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x0a1fd8…