First-Node — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$599

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

89.2%

Resolved

10,223

Trades

22,494

lifetime

Volume

$254.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$236

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-27 11:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 214 days

Categories

Other

52% 95% -$102

Crypto

48% 85% -$499

Politics

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 384 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+100	$96	96¢	$96	+$0	10-26 00:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+71	$70	98¢	$70	+$0	10-27 10:44
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+50	$48	96¢	$48	+$0	10-27 08:58
China coup attempt before 2027?	No	+22	$20	97¢	$22	+$1	10-27 09:45

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	22	$758	380	380	+0	Yes	+$1	09-03 16:18
China coup attempt before 2027?	21	$744	397	375	+22	open	—	10-27 09:45
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 15?	46	$687	360	330	+30	No	+$1	07-15 08:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 09:00 UTC	13	$638	353	352	+1	Down	+$0	01-30 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 05:25 UTC	10	$582	505	90	+415	Up	+$10	08-14 05:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 01:45 UTC	10	$526	499	499	+1	Up	+$391	01-26 02:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 06:45 UTC	35	$515	619	200	+419	Up	-$63	02-05 06:53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28?	5	$509	509	0	+509	No	+$1	09-29 04:00
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	41	$499	291	219	+71	open	—	10-27 10:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:50 UTC	4	$480	246	246	+0	Up	+$7	04-12 01:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 06:00 UTC	25	$478	650	100	+550	Down	+$17	01-30 06:13
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	27	$431	273	173	+100	open	—	10-26 00:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 14:05 UTC	15	$398	408	15	+393	Up	+$2	08-12 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 02:10 UTC	5	$389	300	100	+200	Up	+$7	04-12 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:45 UTC	22	$364	235	189	+46	Down	+$5	04-12 03:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	5	$357	241	184	+56	Down	+$9	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:15 UTC	7	$354	217	168	+49	Down	+$19	04-12 03:19
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?	29	$335	217	217	+0	Yes	-$16	07-25 08:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 05:45 UTC	14	$335	600	0	+600	Down	+$15	01-30 05:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 01:30 UTC	38	$329	646	0	+646	Down	-$6	02-05 01:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:20 UTC	8	$327	428	177	+251	Down	+$25	03-24 08:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 08:00 UTC	15	$324	497	60	+437	Up	+$12	02-05 08:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:15 UTC	4	$319	251	153	+98	Down	-$15	03-24 08:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 08:00 UTC	20	$318	600	0	+600	Up	-$18	01-30 08:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 05:00 UTC	46	$306	757	0	+757	Down	+$70	02-05 05:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 01:15 UTC	37	$306	579	0	+579	Down	+$1	02-05 01:29
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 24?	20	$298	160	140	+20	No	+$2	07-24 09:09
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 20?	20	$297	160	140	+20	No	+$2	09-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 05:15 UTC	3	$292	168	168	+0	Down	-$40	08-14 05:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:20 UTC	11	$289	161	160	+1	Down	+$20	04-12 03:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 12:03:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xef8e3e…
10-27 11:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x1707c2…
10-27 11:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1037a1…
10-27 10:44:32	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xa0ec0b…
10-27 10:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x17c2c3…
10-27 10:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0a7ee6…
10-27 10:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4c24b9…
10-27 09:45:23	China coup attempt before 2027?	No	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x1f0744…
10-27 09:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x57e8fa…
10-27 09:38:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x26af56…
10-27 09:33:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x3de712…
10-27 09:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0d4fbd…
10-27 09:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xc46069…
10-27 08:58:59	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf1054d…
10-27 08:56:24	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xac25dd…
10-27 08:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x426fb3…
10-27 08:38:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xcd732e…
10-27 08:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xe65a78…
10-27 08:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x8957be…
10-27 08:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7d4e07…
10-27 07:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0059b8…
10-27 07:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf9541e…
10-27 07:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x0e589f…
10-27 07:06:23	Lai Ching-te visits US by December 31?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd03812…
10-27 07:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0x258793…
10-27 07:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x0c0777…
10-27 06:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xf34e30…
10-27 06:33:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x73e95c…
10-27 06:19:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xf9ccf1…
10-27 06:09:05	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	21	98¢	$21	0x641664…
10-27 05:33:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa5004e…
10-27 05:13:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xa0f542…
10-27 05:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xfe0fe4…
10-27 05:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x087e8c…
10-27 04:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xf0fd91…
10-27 04:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xadd843…
10-27 04:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x6830f2…
10-27 03:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9897c4…
10-27 03:47:18	China coup attempt before 2027?	No	SELL	56	97¢	$54	0x6e0631…
10-27 03:38:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7895f0…
10-27 03:18:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9dc127…
10-27 02:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xdf2f77…
10-27 02:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x681126…
10-27 02:13:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1cc02e…
10-27 02:09:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x9c9f08…
10-27 02:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1736a0…
10-27 02:03:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x3d3e79…
10-27 02:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x81d2e0…
10-27 01:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x10799e…
10-27 01:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa120dd…
10-27 01:38:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x2d3f0d…
10-27 01:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5b46bf…
10-27 01:04:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x58166d…
10-27 00:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xf643e7…
10-27 00:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x15d307…
10-27 00:44:18	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0x17dd8b…
10-27 00:33:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa5a375…
10-27 00:25:53	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0x7a7ecb…
10-27 00:13:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xb75813…
10-27 00:08:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xdfa10a…
10-27 00:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7646d2…
10-26 23:52:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xb11c30…
10-26 23:52:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x4ce616…
10-26 23:52:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb2c9f4…
10-26 23:48:02	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	98¢	$9	0xcd1560…
10-26 23:45:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x042161…
10-26 23:33:48	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x234cf0…
10-26 23:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xe62323…
10-26 22:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x0c9849…
10-26 22:13:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x6d1e1b…
10-26 21:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5c1ad3…
10-26 21:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa466fd…
10-26 21:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xc40ee0…
10-26 21:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4cd0bd…
10-26 21:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4a5225…
10-26 21:18:23	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x565398…
10-26 21:12:24	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xfa49f8…
10-26 20:53:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x460b99…
10-26 20:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5b4cf6…
10-26 20:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x52f94f…
10-26 20:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x60a175…
10-26 20:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xac3ca0…
10-26 19:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xf0f3ca…
10-26 19:38:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x75f6c1…
10-26 19:28:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x4aeae2…
10-26 19:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1f18c7…
10-26 19:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x45e424…
10-26 18:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xd9206a…
10-26 18:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x50f1c7…
10-26 18:33:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1101f2…
10-26 18:30:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x43fece…
10-26 18:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x8a19d4…
10-26 17:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x285f2a…
10-26 17:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x2e2d34…
10-26 17:34:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x51d8ce…
10-26 17:03:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xb9b876…
10-26 16:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x19fcb4…
10-26 16:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x5e60a2…
10-26 16:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x69fbf2…
10-26 15:58:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9b68dc…