First-Node — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$597

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

89.2%

Resolved

10,464

Trades

22,814

lifetime

Volume

$256.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$270

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 10-31 01:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 218 days

Categories

Other

51% 95% -$102

Crypto

48% 85% -$497

Politics

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 384 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	+100	$96	96¢	$96	$0	10-26 00:26
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+78	$76	98¢	$76	+$0	10-27 20:09
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	+71	$68	96¢	$68	$0	10-29 05:38
China coup attempt before 2027?	No	+30	$28	97¢	$29	+$1	10-29 12:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
China coup attempt before 2027?	25	$795	427	397	+30	open	—	10-29 12:37
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	22	$758	380	380	+0	Yes	+$1	09-03 16:18
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 15?	46	$687	360	330	+30	No	+$1	07-15 08:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 09:00 UTC	13	$638	353	352	+1	Down	+$0	01-30 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 05:25 UTC	10	$582	505	90	+415	Up	+$10	08-14 05:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-26 01:45 UTC	10	$526	499	499	+1	Up	+$391	01-26 02:00
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 06:45 UTC	35	$515	619	200	+419	Up	-$63	02-05 06:53
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 28?	5	$509	509	0	+509	No	+$1	09-29 04:00
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	42	$505	297	219	+78	open	—	10-27 20:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 01:50 UTC	4	$480	246	246	+0	Up	+$7	04-12 01:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 06:00 UTC	25	$478	650	100	+550	Down	+$17	01-30 06:13
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	27	$431	273	173	+100	open	—	10-26 00:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-12 14:05 UTC	15	$398	408	15	+393	Up	+$2	08-12 14:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 02:10 UTC	5	$389	300	100	+200	Up	+$7	04-12 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:45 UTC	22	$364	235	189	+46	Down	+$5	04-12 03:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:25 UTC	5	$357	241	184	+56	Down	+$9	03-24 08:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:15 UTC	7	$354	217	168	+49	Down	+$19	04-12 03:19
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 25?	29	$335	217	217	+0	Yes	-$16	07-25 08:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 05:45 UTC	14	$335	600	0	+600	Down	+$15	01-30 05:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 01:30 UTC	38	$329	646	0	+646	Down	-$6	02-05 01:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:20 UTC	8	$327	428	177	+251	Down	+$25	03-24 08:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 08:00 UTC	15	$324	497	60	+437	Up	+$12	02-05 08:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-24 08:15 UTC	4	$319	251	153	+98	Down	-$15	03-24 08:19
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-01-30 08:00 UTC	20	$318	600	0	+600	Up	-$18	01-30 08:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 05:00 UTC	46	$306	757	0	+757	Down	+$70	02-05 05:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 01:15 UTC	37	$306	579	0	+579	Down	+$1	02-05 01:29
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 24?	20	$298	160	140	+20	No	+$2	07-24 09:09
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on September 20?	20	$297	160	140	+20	No	+$2	09-20 08:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 05:15 UTC	3	$292	168	168	+0	Down	-$40	08-14 05:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-12 03:20 UTC	11	$289	161	160	+1	Down	+$20	04-12 03:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x1c4097…
10-31 01:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x82e0b6…
10-31 01:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xc2a05e…
10-31 01:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x1eda48…
10-31 01:09:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd00b80…
10-31 01:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x441300…
10-31 00:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xcbd9ef…
10-31 00:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xf00808…
10-30 23:58:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x703a1a…
10-30 23:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xba0114…
10-30 23:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x19b214…
10-30 23:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xa4c8d2…
10-30 23:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x104d4d…
10-30 23:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x3001a6…
10-30 22:54:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0xf8b8a9…
10-30 22:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa8a58f…
10-30 21:23:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x39ed7a…
10-30 21:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x39e7e4…
10-30 20:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x09e1a8…
10-30 20:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x2529c9…
10-30 19:48:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x941009…
10-30 19:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x51a80e…
10-30 19:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x071706…
10-30 19:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xa3e274…
10-30 19:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x897d6c…
10-30 19:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x8b76a4…
10-30 19:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x51ec04…
10-30 18:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x48d285…
10-30 18:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x95d225…
10-30 18:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x5e872e…
10-30 18:33:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x3416aa…
10-30 18:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x4cad61…
10-30 17:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7376aa…
10-30 17:33:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa1d7f5…
10-30 17:24:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0xc53dae…
10-30 17:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x079cab…
10-30 17:08:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc93812…
10-30 17:08:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x43c3c6…
10-30 16:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xc91f58…
10-30 16:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x7cd57c…
10-30 16:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xcdd9e8…
10-30 15:53:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xc45093…
10-30 15:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0xd9ad2a…
10-30 15:43:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xb05656…
10-30 15:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x939179…
10-30 14:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x2f0132…
10-30 14:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xcd7fa1…
10-30 13:48:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7785e3…
10-30 13:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xde0a33…
10-30 13:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x5a7907…
10-30 13:19:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd80f51…
10-30 13:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9c016e…
10-30 13:14:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x8a6c76…
10-30 13:03:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x41c093…
10-30 13:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xe86891…
10-30 12:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xec860a…
10-30 12:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x7f2586…
10-30 12:03:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x9611e6…
10-30 11:54:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd14ce2…
10-30 11:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x59c44f…
10-30 11:44:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x317e04…
10-30 11:43:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x9fc054…
10-30 11:03:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xa823b0…
10-30 11:03:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xa69110…
10-30 10:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xab3a13…
10-30 10:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x146f06…
10-30 10:38:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x1c44da…
10-30 10:28:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xa0a91e…
10-30 10:28:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x018d36…
10-30 10:23:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x7d805c…
10-30 10:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x0fc47f…
10-30 10:18:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xf86461…
10-30 10:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x69cf5a…
10-30 10:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x750fcb…
10-30 09:43:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x0fba48…
10-30 09:14:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x7a4634…
10-30 08:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x2558e9…
10-30 08:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x842903…
10-30 08:03:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xf85055…
10-30 08:03:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa5c88c…
10-30 07:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x93a071…
10-30 07:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x21a7e8…
10-30 07:53:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x2952bc…
10-30 07:39:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x91b412…
10-30 07:18:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xc9ea65…
10-30 07:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc0cdeb…
10-30 07:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x899d3d…
10-30 06:44:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x658cce…
10-30 06:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x70ef18…
10-30 06:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xaa2e5d…
10-30 06:33:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x0950e0…
10-30 06:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x1f6ad3…
10-30 06:23:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xde80c5…
10-30 06:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x5ba7f7…
10-30 06:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x6a14bd…
10-30 05:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x9536cc…
10-30 05:58:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x644d3b…
10-30 05:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xfef795…
10-30 05:49:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x74f3d3…
10-30 05:38:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xdade61…