Upbeat-Complicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$159

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

66.6%

Resolved

Trades

185

lifetime

Volume

$1.96K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$29

1 position

First seen

2026-01-16

last 06-03 14:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

74% 58% $-63

Politics

23% 100% +$222

Other

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes		+273	$30	11¢	$29	$-1	06-03 14:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	4	$92	106	13	+92	open	—	04-25 18:04
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$68	46	46	+0	open	—	02-28 07:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$60	115	0	+115	open	—	05-08 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$60	121	0	+121	Up	+$61	05-12 03:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	3	$55	129	0	+129	Down	$-55	05-13 03:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	3	$53	36	36	+0	Down	+$13	05-11 18:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$51	88	88	+0	open	—	04-01 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$50	32	32	+0	Up	+$10	05-12 03:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	5	$50	581	0	+581	Down	$-50	05-13 03:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	5	$50	94	0	+94	open	—	04-25 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	3	$48	30	30	+0	Up	+$8	05-11 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$44	30	30	+0	Up	+$4	05-11 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	5	$44	64	26	+37	open	—	04-27 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	4	$40	51	0	+51	Up	+$11	05-13 02:59
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$40	25	25	+0	open	—	04-05 05:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$37	1,357	1,357	+0	open	—	01-20 03:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-12 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	5	$33	48	6	+42	open	—	04-25 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$32	23	23	+0	Up	+$12	05-11 18:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$30	0	30	-30	open	—	06-02 18:23
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$30	273	0	+273	open	—	06-03 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$30	52	0	+52	Down	+$22	05-11 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	3	$30	48	0	+48	open	—	04-27 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	4	$30	58	0	+58	Down	$-30	05-12 03:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$30	37	0	+37	open	—	04-27 15:03
btc updown 5m 1777033800	4	$28	44	42	+2	open	—	04-24 12:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$27	202	0	+202	Yes	+$175	05-03 05:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$25	38	0	+38	Down	$-25	05-13 03:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	1	$25	155	0	+155	Up	$-25	05-11 18:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	03-01 18:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 14:49:15	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0xdf1319…
06-02 18:23:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x49c62a…
05-13 03:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x2d52a2…
05-13 03:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x767126…
05-13 03:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0x02826c…
05-13 03:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xc014ef…
05-13 03:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x57553d…
05-13 03:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x705494…
05-13 03:06:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xa6846d…
05-13 03:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xcd0f4d…
05-13 03:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xfd69c7…
05-13 03:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x129399…
05-13 03:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xfc00ce…
05-13 02:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x46dcac…
05-13 02:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x24ec8e…
05-13 02:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xb44767…
05-13 02:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x798939…
05-12 16:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3413d2…
05-12 16:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8a001f…
05-12 15:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x858b3c…
05-12 15:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x2e2025…
05-12 13:43:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc4c1ac…
05-12 03:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x7bf0cb…
05-12 03:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x5e96c9…
05-12 03:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	32	96¢	$30	0xa74d7a…
05-12 03:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc3d72d…
05-12 03:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xf3e28e…
05-12 03:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x0760ab…
05-12 03:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xb715c0…
05-12 03:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x186175…
05-12 03:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xb66c3a…
05-12 03:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbee029…
05-12 03:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x185e3c…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xfd2128…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd16a31…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x2a292e…
05-11 18:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x46c8d2…
05-11 18:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	36	90¢	$33	0x9a4094…
05-11 18:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x2753e6…
05-11 18:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x738312…
05-11 18:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xdf4160…
05-11 18:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x34067c…
05-11 18:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x04aa56…
05-11 18:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x394d10…
05-11 18:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd55bf4…
05-11 18:07:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	155	16¢	$25	0x286d09…
05-11 18:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	30	82¢	$24	0xb5cae7…
05-11 18:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xd9bde2…
05-11 18:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x40deb2…
05-10 18:57:53	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x806765…
05-10 18:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x672d04…
05-10 18:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x2efe82…
05-09 03:44:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x56ee25…
05-08 03:22:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0xa66947…
05-08 03:21:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0x75f932…
05-08 03:20:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0xd33b09…
05-03 05:19:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcbefaf…
04-27 15:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x4ca720…
04-27 15:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x759b72…
04-27 15:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x33f064…
04-27 15:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x296250…
04-27 15:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xcfdb0a…
04-27 15:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x152cee…
04-27 15:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0xdb719a…
04-27 15:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x16a745…
04-27 15:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xdd5651…
04-27 15:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x75414d…
04-27 15:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x2e5ac1…
04-27 14:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xc598dc…
04-27 03:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xfd3fbc…
04-27 02:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x9d6a77…
04-26 19:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x7de4f4…
04-26 06:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xedeb12…
04-26 05:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x59070e…
04-26 05:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x71746e…
04-26 05:16:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xa86edf…
04-26 05:15:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xee6f10…
04-26 05:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	SELL	11	14¢	$2	0x7b8383…
04-26 05:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x42b91f…
04-26 05:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x1e0627…
04-26 04:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x625503…
04-26 04:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x0d0f67…
04-25 20:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x4ee7cc…
04-25 20:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xcbb12a…
04-25 20:43:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xd680da…
04-25 20:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x66ccdd…
04-25 20:42:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x4c5a16…
04-25 19:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x185746…
04-25 19:48:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xb72c54…
04-25 19:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x297471…
04-25 19:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x47fcc7…
04-25 19:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x4a1f3d…
04-25 19:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x0d8623…
04-25 19:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x7c7603…
04-25 18:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x34f261…
04-25 18:47:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xd4c6fd…
04-25 18:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x523bf4…
04-25 18:46:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	38¢	$2	0x95332f…
04-25 18:45:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x166190…
04-25 18:21:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x61a43d…