Upbeat-Complicity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$114

Unrealized P&L

-$95

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

Trades

210

lifetime

Volume

$2.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$185

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-16

last 10-30 04:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 34 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 62% -$73

Politics

31% 58% +$275

Other

10% 50% -$68

Sports

1% 0% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+123	$100	82¢	$100	$0	10-30 04:44
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+35	$30	94¢	$33	+$3	05-08 03:09
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+88	$15	13¢	$11	-$4	05-06 02:53
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+11	$10	97¢	$11	+$1	05-10 18:54
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+147	$50	8¢	$11	-$39	05-11 18:15
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	+273	$30	4¢	$11	-$19	06-03 14:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+233	$25	2¢	$5	-$20	05-09 18:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+35	$20	11¢	$4	-$16	07-28 18:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$100	123	0	+123	open	—	10-30 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	4	$92	106	13	+92	Up	-$1	04-25 18:04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	3	$90	178	31	+147	open	—	05-11 18:15
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$68	46	46	+0	Yes	+$22	02-28 07:00
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$60	115	0	+115	Yes	-$60	05-08 03:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$60	121	0	+121	Up	+$61	05-12 03:08
Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	2	$60	37	37	+0	open	—	05-11 18:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	3	$55	129	0	+129	Down	-$55	05-13 03:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	3	$53	36	36	+0	Down	+$13	05-11 18:31
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$51	88	88	+0	No	-$17	04-01 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$50	32	32	+0	Up	+$10	05-12 03:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$50	30	30	+0	No	+$10	06-02 18:23
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	1	$50	99	0	+99	No	-$50	05-09 03:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	5	$50	581	0	+581	Down	-$50	05-13 03:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	5	$50	94	0	+94	Up	+$44	04-25 20:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	3	$48	30	30	+0	Up	+$8	05-11 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$44	30	30	+0	Up	+$4	05-11 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	5	$44	64	26	+37	Up	$0	04-27 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	4	$40	51	0	+51	Up	+$11	05-13 02:59
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$40	25	25	+0	Yes	+$11	04-05 05:01
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	2	$37	1,357	1,357	+0	No	-$1	01-20 03:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$35	20	20	+0	No	+$5	05-12 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	5	$33	48	6	+42	Up	+$13	04-25 18:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	2	$32	23	23	+0	Up	+$12	05-11 18:28
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$30	273	0	+273	open	—	06-03 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	3	$30	48	0	+48	Down	-$30	04-27 15:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$30	52	0	+52	Down	+$22	05-11 18:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	4	$30	58	0	+58	Down	-$30	05-12 03:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	3	$30	37	0	+37	Down	+$7	04-27 15:03
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	2	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	05-08 03:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 04:44:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	123	82¢	$100	0x554021…
07-28 18:36:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0x043326…
07-03 15:02:32	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0xdff063…
06-03 14:49:15	Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0xdf1319…
06-02 18:23:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x49c62a…
05-13 03:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	44	11¢	$5	0x2d52a2…
05-13 03:17:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x767126…
05-13 03:16:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	43	59¢	$25	0x02826c…
05-13 03:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xc014ef…
05-13 03:08:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x57553d…
05-13 03:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x705494…
05-13 03:06:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xa6846d…
05-13 03:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xcd0f4d…
05-13 03:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xfd69c7…
05-13 03:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x129399…
05-13 03:00:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xfc00ce…
05-13 02:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x46dcac…
05-13 02:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x24ec8e…
05-13 02:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xb44767…
05-13 02:57:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x798939…
05-12 16:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x3413d2…
05-12 16:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x8a001f…
05-12 15:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x858b3c…
05-12 15:56:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x2e2025…
05-12 13:43:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc4c1ac…
05-12 03:44:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0x114bb4…
05-12 03:39:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x7bf0cb…
05-12 03:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x5e96c9…
05-12 03:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	SELL	32	96¢	$30	0xa74d7a…
05-12 03:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xc3d72d…
05-12 03:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xf3e28e…
05-12 03:08:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x0760ab…
05-12 03:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0xb715c0…
05-12 03:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x186175…
05-12 03:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xb66c3a…
05-12 03:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xbee029…
05-12 03:01:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x185e3c…
05-11 18:47:02	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	SELL	37	80¢	$30	0xd081a6…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xfd2128…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd16a31…
05-11 18:41:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x2a292e…
05-11 18:37:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x46c8d2…
05-11 18:31:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	SELL	36	90¢	$33	0x9a4094…
05-11 18:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x2753e6…
05-11 18:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x738312…
05-11 18:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	SELL	23	98¢	$22	0xdf4160…
05-11 18:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x34067c…
05-11 18:23:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	30	94¢	$28	0x04aa56…
05-11 18:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x394d10…
05-11 18:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd55bf4…
05-11 18:15:46	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	34¢	$50	0x67d6ec…
05-11 18:07:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	155	16¢	$25	0x286d09…
05-11 18:06:54	Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo	No	BUY	37	81¢	$30	0x11c481…
05-11 18:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	30	82¢	$24	0xb5cae7…
05-11 18:03:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xd9bde2…
05-11 18:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x40deb2…
05-10 18:57:53	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x806765…
05-10 18:56:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	16	67¢	$11	0x672d04…
05-10 18:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x2efe82…
05-10 18:54:16	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x39b96b…
05-10 06:46:36	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	31	62¢	$20	0x6ba8a5…
05-10 02:53:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x6d4adc…
05-10 02:36:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	23	52¢	$12	0xb0120e…
05-09 18:28:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x4aaf09…
05-09 14:31:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xf95699…
05-09 14:31:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x72db34…
05-09 12:50:07	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xa70af7…
05-09 12:47:38	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa2161a…
05-09 09:49:13	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xedf53d…
05-09 03:49:25	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x2002b8…
05-09 03:44:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x56ee25…
05-09 03:33:24	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0x966be4…
05-08 03:22:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0xa66947…
05-08 03:21:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0x75f932…
05-08 03:20:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	52¢	$30	0xd33b09…
05-08 03:09:20	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x3430d0…
05-06 02:53:06	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	88	17¢	$15	0xb07aa4…
05-06 02:51:36	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xdae0d4…
05-05 03:54:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x0fa0ae…
05-04 10:28:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x479ca7…
05-03 17:56:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xf6043d…
05-03 05:19:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xcbefaf…
04-27 15:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x4ca720…
04-27 15:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x759b72…
04-27 15:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x33f064…
04-27 15:07:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x296250…
04-27 15:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xcfdb0a…
04-27 15:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x152cee…
04-27 15:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	SELL	26	14¢	$4	0xdb719a…
04-27 15:05:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x16a745…
04-27 15:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xdd5651…
04-27 15:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x75414d…
04-27 15:02:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x2e5ac1…
04-27 14:47:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xc598dc…
04-27 03:27:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xfd3fbc…
04-27 02:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x9d6a77…
04-26 19:17:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x7de4f4…
04-26 06:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	13	74¢	$10	0xedeb12…
04-26 05:57:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x59070e…
04-26 05:19:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x71746e…