Realized P&L
+$184
Unrealized P&L
+$75
Hit rate
91.7%
Resolved
30,643
Trades
202,246
lifetime
Volume
$2.50M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$1.24K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 08-25 08:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 223 days
Categories
Other
77% 88% +$1,237
Sports
10% 91% +$694
Politics
8% 88% +$14
Crypto
5% 89% -$597
Tech
1% 74% -$1,159
Pop-Culture
0% 87% -$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
4 active days in 12wk • peak 186 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +500 $345 64¢ $318 -$28 05-05 00:33
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +500 $145 36¢ $182 +$38 05-05 00:33
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +100 $94 100¢ $100 +$6 04-29 04:32
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +100 $97 100¢ $100 +$3 04-29 04:32
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +100 $84 100¢ $100 +$16 04-29 04:32
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No +100 $76 99¢ $99 +$23 04-29 04:32
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No +75 $69 98¢ $74 +$4 05-06 19:25
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +30 $17 100¢ $30 +$13 05-04 17:46
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +30 $27 97¢ $29 +$3 05-08 16:23
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -11 -$10 97¢ $-11 $0 07-17 14:18
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 08-16 13:36
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 04-30 23:52
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 08-06 21:20
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 08-06 19:53
Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be 9% or higher? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 $0 04-30 23:52
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 $0 04-30 23:52
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 08-06 19:48
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31? No +10 $9 100¢ $10 +$1 05-20 07:40
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 05-20 07:40
Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 $0 05-20 07:40
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 04-30 23:52
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No +10 $8 98¢ $10 +$2 04-30 23:52
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? No +10 $8 90¢ $9 +$1 08-06 19:48
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? No +10 $9 86¢ $9 $0 05-01 11:24
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +15 $15 57¢ $9 -$6 06-04 19:28