Realized P&L
+$426
Unrealized P&L
+$79
Hit rate
68.5%
Resolved
185
Trades
6,454
lifetime
Volume
$54.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$923
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 10-28 23:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 86 days
Categories
Other
67% 65% +$422
Politics
18% 42% +$24
Sports
8% 62% -$59
Tech
4% 50% -$6
Pop-Culture
2% 33% +$48
Crypto
1% 64% -$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No -369 -$262 84¢ $-310 -$48 10-28 07:21
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes +208 $55 46¢ $96 +$41 10-15 23:40
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes +210 $61 36¢ $76 +$15 10-22 06:47
Celonis IPO before 2027? No +51 $45 92¢ $47 +$2 10-26 07:04
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No +50 $36 90¢ $45 +$10 07-12 15:35
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No -35 -$28 91¢ $-32 -$4 05-13 09:52
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No +130 $34 22¢ $29 -$5 10-13 05:32
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? No -30 -$28 96¢ $-29 $0 05-08 15:20
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No +27 $21 87¢ $23 +$2 10-26 10:02
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes -26 -$11 90¢ $-23 -$13 06-30 08:57
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +41 $14 56¢ $23 +$9 10-28 08:32
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +128 $44 17¢ $22 -$23 10-26 18:31
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +22 $18 96¢ $21 +$3 10-09 01:09
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes +140 $31 14¢ $20 -$11 10-14 13:48
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes +67 $18 27¢ $18 +$1 10-25 04:04
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? No +19 -$23 89¢ $17 +$41 10-05 06:59
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No -15 -$11 89¢ $-13 -$2 04-30 12:40
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +30 $10 36¢ $11 +$0 09-13 21:06
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +21 $8 50¢ $10 +$2 10-23 19:18
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +30 $10 34¢ $10 +$0 09-14 07:41
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +19 $8 43¢ $8 $0 10-19 17:25
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +48 $8 16¢ $7 -$1 10-28 22:15
Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? No +6 $4 96¢ $6 +$2 10-07 14:51
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +5 $4 89¢ $5 +$0 10-28 09:56
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +5 $4 87¢ $4 +$0 10-05 21:51
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes +5 $4 78¢ $4 +$0 08-30 23:02
Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026? No +23 -$19 15¢ $3 +$22 10-28 20:26
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No +4 -$36 85¢ $3 +$39 10-15 23:28
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Yes -71 -$3 4¢ $-3 $0 10-23 03:57
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? No +15 $6 16¢ $2 -$3 10-28 22:55