Excitable-Yarn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.15K

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

40.0%

Resolved

4,712

Trades

15,589

lifetime

Volume

$84.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-29 10:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 43% -$647

Other

21% 25% -$338

Politics

21% 21% -$112

Tech

2% 27% -$49

Sports

1% 0% —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes		+0	-$2	70¢	$0	+$3	05-27 12:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	14	$1.8K	1,520	1,520	+0	No	-$23	05-31 15:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	20	$1.5K	1,640	1,640	+0	Yes	-$7	05-29 14:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 20:40 UTC	21	$1.5K	973	964	+9	Up	+$74	02-27 20:41
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	25	$1.5K	2,360	2,360	+0	Yes	-$55	06-02 14:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	26	$1.3K	1,487	1,487	+0	No	-$8	05-08 20:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	17	$1.2K	895	895	+0	Yes	-$18	05-29 11:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	16	$1.2K	920	920	+0	Yes	-$2	05-30 15:26
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	16	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	$0	05-09 19:52
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	7	$1.1K	840	840	+0	No	+$3	05-29 20:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	10	$965	900	900	+0	No	-$7	05-28 19:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$931	1,120	1,120	+0	No	+$0	05-21 06:53
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	9	$881	820	820	+0	open	—	05-26 23:18
Iran leadership change by December 31?	8	$819	600	600	+0	open	—	05-30 08:02
solana up or down march 4 3pm et	56	$735	614	425	+190	Down	+$114	03-04 21:55
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	16	$603	620	620	+0	No	-$4	05-17 19:21
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$597	570	570	+0	No	+$0	06-01 00:30
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	20	$588	640	640	+0	Yes	-$1	05-29 14:47
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	2	$582	300	300	+0	No	+$0	01-09 09:44
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	14	$580	517	517	+0	Yes	-$4	05-13 14:40
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	9	$580	620	620	+0	No	-$3	05-30 00:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-26 15:45 UTC	179	$557	1,130	0	+1,130	Up	+$39	02-26 15:58
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$544	320	320	+0	open	—	06-02 18:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	6	$536	600	600	+0	No	+$0	05-10 16:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	5	$531	500	500	+0	No	-$21	05-13 07:04
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	2	$528	300	300	+0	Yes	+$0	05-23 23:23
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	2	$525	320	320	+0	Yes	+$0	05-12 14:07
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	14	$498	684	684	+0	No	+$0	05-21 19:20
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	12	$494	597	597	+0	No	$0	05-29 18:59
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	5	$440	620	620	+0	open	—	06-02 15:58
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	4	$437	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 17:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 10:45:41	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xd1a24d…
10-29 10:45:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	0	45¢	$0	0xe52e80…
10-29 10:45:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0x343828…
10-29 09:25:50	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0xdeb086…
10-28 12:41:34	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xed4fb5…
10-28 12:41:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x8e9a65…
10-28 09:51:11	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xb05f13…
10-28 09:45:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x7b3f85…
10-28 09:30:07	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x35ea4f…
10-28 08:54:19	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	17	10¢	$2	0x631686…
10-28 08:41:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x8315fd…
10-28 05:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	7	32¢	$2	0xb62d05…
10-28 05:10:38	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x5bd74c…
10-28 05:10:37	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xdcc980…
10-28 04:11:01	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x493d38…
10-28 01:20:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x00f908…
10-28 01:20:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6d0762…
10-27 23:05:23	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	1	26¢	$0	0x93f662…
10-27 23:05:23	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$0	0x51eaba…
10-27 23:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xafec0c…
10-27 23:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x8f4395…
10-27 23:05:21	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	6	26¢	$2	0x2902e2…
10-27 22:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x2695ba…
10-27 22:17:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x34c496…
10-27 22:14:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xac9058…
10-27 22:10:33	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x94aea4…
10-27 21:17:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	24	7¢	$2	0xb7b473…
10-27 20:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x97fe46…
10-27 20:44:18	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$1	0x968a0b…
10-27 20:43:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xedb84f…
10-27 20:38:02	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	45	4¢	$2	0xcb9366…
10-27 20:37:57	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc95e53…
10-27 19:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x2a3d76…
10-27 18:49:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x39e4d5…
10-27 18:28:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0xcd7523…
10-27 15:03:05	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x9b0d0a…
10-27 13:09:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xcc2327…
10-27 13:03:53	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	6	50¢	$3	0xe1124c…
10-27 13:03:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	27	37¢	$10	0xf6cd62…
10-27 12:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x30cbf0…
10-27 12:38:11	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	4	37¢	$1	0x8cd847…
10-27 12:36:23	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x7af243…
10-27 12:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x4c2260…
10-27 11:21:05	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0xb2593a…
10-27 11:16:50	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xfcc904…
10-27 10:39:00	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0xa144cb…
10-27 10:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	35	15¢	$5	0xdaaa78…
10-27 07:57:45	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0x61642c…
10-27 07:44:53	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x934c12…
10-27 07:01:08	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4e46be…
10-27 07:01:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x93703b…
10-27 06:52:44	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xf3a7e9…
10-27 06:04:20	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x83161e…
10-27 06:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x7b746a…
10-27 05:59:39	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x6eaee0…
10-27 05:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xbaa59b…
10-27 05:40:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0xa458ab…
10-27 05:36:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	20¢	$4	0xb7aa81…
10-27 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0xe5e8d5…
10-27 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xdcb122…
10-27 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x8ec474…
10-27 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x7ca0a6…
10-27 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x15b6ab…
10-27 05:13:44	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x01d2ee…
10-27 05:09:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x15258e…
10-27 05:09:00	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x617096…
10-27 05:08:59	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0x183c0b…
10-27 04:56:08	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xa73031…
10-27 04:05:27	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x72a72f…
10-27 04:05:24	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0x971fe3…
10-27 02:14:59	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x4269d5…
10-27 01:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x864c83…
10-27 00:31:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x114b4e…
10-27 00:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xee9158…
10-27 00:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x7ce408…
10-27 00:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x159141…
10-27 00:23:53	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	47	1¢	$0	0xc33be9…
10-27 00:11:50	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	13	3¢	$0	0xbc5a5a…
10-27 00:11:41	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x681cf4…
10-27 00:11:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	29	1¢	$0	0xbe644e…
10-26 23:10:44	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x14e870…
10-26 23:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xd63242…
10-26 23:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x5dd1e7…
10-26 23:07:35	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xefeea2…
10-26 23:04:50	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x37d2da…
10-26 23:02:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x88f0bf…
10-26 22:45:50	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x8960c6…
10-26 22:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x61f837…
10-26 22:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	4	9¢	$0	0x031a97…
10-26 22:37:20	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0x23b380…
10-26 22:37:18	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0x801c48…
10-26 22:12:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x9ecb08…
10-26 22:01:23	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x79e887…
10-26 21:43:11	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa07153…
10-26 21:28:21	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xe0df9d…
10-26 21:28:20	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0xea5a76…
10-26 21:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	2	21¢	$0	0xad75b2…
10-26 21:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x1d7a16…
06-02 19:15:17	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	63¢	$25	0xaa1a44…
06-02 18:14:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x3d1e8b…