Flashy-Constellation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.29K

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

13,576

Trades

49,793

lifetime

Volume

$170.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 11-02 06:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 208 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 77% -$638

Other

20% 11% -$2,505

Politics

6% 17% -$399

Sports

3% 8% -$495

Tech

2% 14% -$257

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes		+1	$0	50¢	$0	+$0	05-30 17:12
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+0	$1	82¢	$0	-$1	07-16 14:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	15	$320	687	687	+0	No	-$3	06-05 07:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	14	$311	560	560	+0	No	-$8	06-14 16:22
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	13	$294	337	337	+0	No	-$9	06-01 15:40
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	6	$258	165	165	+0	Yes	-$5	06-09 12:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	14	$240	350	350	+0	Yes	-$7	06-14 16:44
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	4	$230	286	286	+0	open	—	07-08 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?	4	$224	300	300	+0	No	-$10	07-23 10:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$219	470	470	+0	No	+$0	06-07 23:54
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	2	$193	75	150	-75	Yes	-$18	05-31 12:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	11	$189	527	527	+0	Yes	-$10	07-08 22:13
will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	4	$188	135	135	+0	open	—	06-10 02:29
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	16	$188	480	480	+0	No	-$15	07-04 14:59
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	3	$184	110	110	+0	No	-$1	06-05 10:59
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	16	$182	341	341	+0	Yes	+$1	06-08 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	9	$170	360	360	+0	No	-$10	06-06 09:16
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	9	$161	212	212	+0	Yes	-$2	07-21 16:49
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$160	220	220	+0	open	—	07-07 17:59
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	8	$160	370	370	+0	No	-$5	06-17 07:22
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	6	$158	150	150	+0	Yes	-$2	06-18 02:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	12	$148	357	357	+0	No	-$3	06-11 23:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	8	$145	300	300	+0	No	-$3	06-25 00:47
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$143	180	180	+0	No	-$4	07-15 11:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	10	$142	307	307	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 14:49
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$141	242	242	+0	No	-$4	07-14 16:53
tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	14	$141	321	321	+0	No	+$2	06-09 12:28
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	11	$140	294	294	+0	Yes	-$9	07-14 16:53
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	6	$139	168	168	+0	Yes	-$8	05-28 09:30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	9	$137	250	250	+0	No	$0	06-01 14:11
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	5	$137	220	220	+0	Yes	-$4	07-02 10:37
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 30?	9	$136	200	200	+0	Yes	-$8	06-29 14:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 07:01:40	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x70d23a…
11-02 06:58:03	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb2defd…
11-02 06:58:03	Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	17	33¢	$6	0x4e5a93…
11-02 06:53:42	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	19	13¢	$3	0xa9af24…
11-02 06:51:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xa76be3…
11-02 05:56:25	Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x5ae6ba…
11-02 05:50:52	Will valyn play for NRG in 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x2472d0…
11-02 05:38:52	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x1fe942…
11-02 05:12:24	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0xd9a663…
11-02 05:03:37	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	No	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xb3c3d1…
11-02 05:03:36	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	No	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xec2768…
11-02 04:53:58	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0x0d8b0f…
11-02 04:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0xe59b67…
11-02 04:36:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x84bdda…
11-02 04:26:48	Will the next governing coalition of Israel consist of Likud + Yashar + Together?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x83dbde…
11-02 04:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x9f7615…
11-02 02:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0x4b7f49…
11-02 01:19:46	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x214943…
11-02 01:11:00	Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x217346…
11-02 01:03:43	Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x9d29ae…
11-02 01:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0xd4a607…
11-02 01:00:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x08d3f8…
11-02 00:57:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x2f95a2…
11-02 00:38:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0xb144c8…
11-02 00:33:04	Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xbf690b…
11-02 00:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x008df5…
11-02 00:11:48	Will "Thriller - Michael Jackson" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xbfe162…
11-02 00:11:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xbc0817…
11-02 00:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xfe4f6b…
11-02 00:09:36	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x3e4e7a…
11-02 00:05:39	Will Rayan Cherki (Man City) record the most assists in the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xab79fa…
11-01 23:04:09	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xdc65b8…
11-01 22:31:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-08 House election by 9%-12%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x2e9468…
11-01 21:20:52	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 27.5-30%?	No	SELL	3	16¢	$0	0xdab807…
11-01 21:15:27	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 27.5-30%?	No	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0x0c1a6f…
11-01 21:04:28	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 27.5-30%?	No	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0x9ee64d…
11-01 21:04:21	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 27.5-30%?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc33cd0…
11-01 19:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0xd0a167…
11-01 19:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	7	23¢	$2	0x14d45b…
11-01 19:17:34	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x850168…
11-01 19:17:34	Will Isco record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x73a24b…
11-01 19:17:34	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x12036d…
11-01 19:17:33	Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xf6b263…
11-01 18:57:06	Will Isco record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x4c0b3e…
11-01 18:35:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xc642ef…
11-01 17:41:13	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x89e237…
11-01 17:34:36	Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x506590…
11-01 17:23:22	Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the June meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0xa8bd13…
11-01 17:01:10	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0xce6fe8…
11-01 17:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x1d3c5f…
11-01 16:51:22	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x7ddd6c…
11-01 16:34:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-07 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9e781b…
11-01 15:19:30	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xde1afe…
11-01 15:19:07	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x4b5d98…
11-01 14:58:57	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xc44e27…
11-01 14:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on November 1?	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xb630b8…
11-01 14:19:12	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	No	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x6e761d…
11-01 14:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xf13fa1…
11-01 13:49:27	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	No	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xffd71a…
11-01 13:25:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xa99e25…
10-30 18:56:06	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x50c40f…
10-30 16:08:30	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	13	73¢	$10	0xfef64c…
10-30 16:08:27	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xea2265…
10-30 16:08:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x314426…
10-30 16:08:27	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x23d790…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xe18734…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xe03dae…
10-30 16:08:25	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x4daced…
10-30 16:08:24	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x48a3ed…
10-30 16:07:16	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x43c2aa…
10-30 16:06:34	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decrease the official cash rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0xf87a02…
10-30 15:55:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AZ-02 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x8f8bf4…
10-30 15:51:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x18a41a…
10-30 15:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0xb47712…
10-30 15:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x501132…
10-30 15:29:37	Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x4ae0b9…
10-30 15:13:48	Court finds BBC liable for defaming Trump?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xa05787…
10-30 15:12:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x44cefd…
10-30 15:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 1?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x899164…
10-30 14:47:19	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xfb36bc…
10-30 14:47:19	Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xe28593…
10-30 14:45:09	Will Agapito win Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x0e44c1…
10-30 14:45:07	Will Rachel Rohrabacher / Christian Alshon advance to the Semifinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xe57373…
10-30 14:45:07	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x202504…
10-30 14:45:06	Will ETH/BTC reach 0.0305 October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x8d643a…
10-30 14:45:06	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x8b9208…
10-30 14:45:06	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x428273…
10-30 14:16:16	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x31a710…
10-30 13:31:45	Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x56937b…
10-30 13:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x72a385…
10-30 13:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xace8d7…
10-30 12:11:21	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x147bf8…
10-30 12:11:12	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xbd2646…
10-30 12:10:49	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	28¢	$0	0x5f045c…
10-30 12:10:49	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x52d804…
10-30 12:10:24	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb2e120…
10-30 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0xf94b1d…
10-30 12:05:33	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	14	78¢	$11	0x1548ea…
10-30 12:05:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x917cfb…
10-30 11:49:27	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x8efaa3…