Flashy-Constellation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$71

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

22.1%

Resolved (7d)

102

Trades (7d)

605

49,935 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$2.92K

$170.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 11-03 19:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 209 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 77% -$638

Other

20% 11% -$2,521

Politics

6% 17% -$399

Sports

3% 8% -$496

Tech

2% 14% -$257

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 174 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$4	25¢	$5	+$1	11-03 16:12
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?	Yes	+1	$0	47¢	$0	+$0	05-30 17:12
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+0	$1	78¢	$0	-$1	07-16 14:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	15	$320	687	687	+0	No	-$3	06-05 07:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	14	$311	560	560	+0	No	-$8	06-14 16:22
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	13	$294	337	337	+0	No	-$9	06-01 15:40
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	6	$258	165	165	+0	Yes	-$5	06-09 12:47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	14	$240	350	350	+0	Yes	-$7	06-14 16:44
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	4	$230	286	286	+0	open	—	07-08 00:00
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 24?	4	$224	300	300	+0	No	-$10	07-23 10:00
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	11	$219	470	470	+0	No	+$0	06-07 23:54
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?	2	$193	75	150	-75	Yes	-$18	05-31 12:32
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	11	$189	527	527	+0	Yes	-$10	07-08 22:13
will yeet launch a token by december 31 2026	4	$188	135	135	+0	open	—	06-10 02:29
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	16	$188	480	480	+0	No	-$15	07-04 14:59
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	3	$184	110	110	+0	No	-$1	06-05 10:59
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	16	$182	341	341	+0	Yes	+$1	06-08 08:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?	9	$170	360	360	+0	No	-$10	06-06 09:16
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	9	$161	212	212	+0	Yes	-$2	07-21 16:49
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$160	220	220	+0	open	—	07-07 17:59
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	8	$160	370	370	+0	No	-$5	06-17 07:22
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%?	6	$158	150	150	+0	Yes	-$2	06-18 02:36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	12	$148	357	357	+0	No	-$3	06-11 23:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	8	$145	300	300	+0	No	-$3	06-25 00:47
will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	4	$143	180	180	+0	No	-$4	07-15 11:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	10	$142	307	307	+0	Yes	+$0	06-01 14:49
will wti dip to 65 in july 2026	6	$141	242	242	+0	No	-$4	07-14 16:53
tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	14	$141	321	321	+0	No	+$2	06-09 12:28
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?	11	$140	294	294	+0	Yes	-$9	07-14 16:53
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	6	$139	168	168	+0	Yes	-$8	05-28 09:30
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?	9	$137	250	250	+0	No	$0	06-01 14:11
israeli parliament dissolved by july 31	5	$137	220	220	+0	Yes	-$4	07-02 10:37
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 30?	9	$136	200	200	+0	Yes	-$8	06-29 14:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 20:16:34	Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x2a1278…
11-03 20:15:06	Will Feyenoord reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xcd5e2e…
11-03 19:59:45	Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x9172e7…
11-03 19:58:36	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xc69d07…
11-03 19:53:39	Will Republicans win 1 Senate and Governor election in states won by Kamala?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xf061a7…
11-03 19:43:58	Will Dario Durigan be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0x69e8a0…
11-03 19:40:31	Will ERC win 12-13 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9cc6d8…
11-03 19:35:39	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be 5,100,000 or more?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x59c0b6…
11-03 19:34:25	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x671fc9…
11-03 19:30:21	Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x11ccd3…
11-03 19:27:37	Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x2c632f…
11-03 19:26:15	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,350,000 and 2,500,000?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1d7c58…
11-03 19:25:04	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa614c8…
11-03 19:22:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xd7b7dc…
11-03 19:20:49	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xeaac6b…
11-03 19:16:01	will chicago white sox advance to the world series in the 2027 mlb playoffs	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x621859…
11-03 19:15:37	will detroit tigers advance to the world series in the 2027 mlb playoffs	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x3dc291…
11-03 19:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0x4f7b0e…
11-03 19:06:15	Will Shakhtar Donetsk reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x5e62fe…
11-03 19:02:57	Will Sporting CP finish 9th-24th in UCL league phase?	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x492edf…
11-03 18:56:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-01 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x66d27d…
11-03 18:45:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xc5c133…
11-03 18:38:28	Will Republicans win the Texas, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x189367…
11-03 18:38:04	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MT-01 House election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x85cac0…
11-03 18:37:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xb3af86…
11-03 18:31:07	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 5?	Yes	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0x5ac3b9…
11-03 18:07:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Alabama Senate election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x57b606…
11-03 17:45:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xf7b4ca…
11-03 17:33:19	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x734580…
11-03 17:29:34	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x1b8c02…
11-03 17:28:24	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x7c97a1…
11-03 17:22:49	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x3622fd…
11-03 17:12:18	Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd2cafa…
11-03 16:57:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-04 House election by 15%-20%?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x2d30df…
11-03 16:53:12	Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?	No	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0xefb35b…
11-03 16:48:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	29¢	$2	0x5f27d2…
11-03 16:45:28	Will ByteDance have the third highest private market valuation at the end of November?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xe0dd7a…
11-03 16:43:24	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x9dd506…
11-03 16:37:33	Will Republicans win the Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x2b36fd…
11-03 16:30:46	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	0	9¢	$0	0x5cce30…
11-03 16:27:01	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xb12f47…
11-03 16:24:49	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x3e4c65…
11-03 16:16:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x666c36…
11-03 16:12:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x117b0a…
11-03 16:12:28	Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x69612f…
11-03 15:47:15	Will Democrats sweep the Michigan Senate and Governor elections?	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x4232a5…
11-03 15:39:01	Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x05edf7…
11-03 15:31:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-32 House election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x2e16d1…
11-03 15:29:28	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xcf86c0…
11-03 15:27:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xec9879…
11-03 15:24:27	Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $168B by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x5f28b6…
11-03 15:11:28	Will Kirk Cousins finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x3fde07…
11-03 15:00:04	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xe6aaed…
11-03 14:59:21	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xe303e0…
11-03 14:42:13	Will Hákon Haraldsson record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xbf7c6b…
11-03 14:42:12	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xda66cc…
11-03 14:42:12	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 14?	No	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xbf65b1…
11-03 14:42:12	Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xa0126f…
11-03 14:42:10	Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xe0eb11…
11-03 14:42:10	Will Mathis Preston win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xa20361…
11-03 14:42:10	Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?	No	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x9e5a3f…
11-03 14:42:10	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x5866f2…
11-03 14:42:09	Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xc3192f…
11-03 14:42:09	Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x688988…
11-03 14:42:09	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x4dc5d8…
11-03 14:42:07	Will Republicans lose any "Solid R" House race?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xda3cd2…
11-03 14:42:07	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xb32067…
11-03 14:42:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x90493a…
11-03 14:13:25	Will the Republican Party win the GA-12 House seat?	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb2cf46…
11-03 14:12:42	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x59cb72…
11-03 14:01:36	Will Hákon Haraldsson record the most assists in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xe86e31…
11-03 13:46:33	Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by November 30?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xa98f1a…
11-03 13:40:43	Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xb9a3fb…
11-03 13:34:54	Will Mathis Preston win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xe83b1a…
11-03 13:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x4cdc63…
11-03 12:57:39	Will South Korea win Group E at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x577dca…
11-03 12:20:15	Will Republicans lose any "Solid R" House race?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x6e83f7…
11-03 11:36:43	Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x144df6…
11-03 11:33:48	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xa17494…
11-03 11:32:15	Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x90f5f2…
11-03 11:30:37	Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x092130…
11-03 11:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 4?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x594fb7…
11-03 10:15:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on November 4?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x74e7c1…
11-03 00:53:04	Will brawk play for Sentinels in 2027?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xed7f5f…
11-03 00:53:04	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0x08997f…
11-03 00:53:03	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0xd69c26…
11-03 00:53:03	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on November 3?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x23bf0b…
11-03 00:53:01	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xf8c129…
11-03 00:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 3?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xee05a6…
11-03 00:53:01	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x61002c…
11-02 23:32:00	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x2da6de…
11-02 23:26:31	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x489627…
11-02 23:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x824a45…
11-02 23:25:15	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xdb12a6…
11-02 23:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x7f824b…
11-02 22:58:45	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0x63f70a…
11-02 22:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	6	43¢	$2	0x09b4a6…
11-02 22:36:15	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	20¢	$3	0x69e76e…
11-02 22:31:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xea1e25…
11-02 22:31:30	Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3aa9ee…