Naive-Waterwheel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$790

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.8%

Resolved

Trades

61,683

lifetime

Volume

$1.36M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-20 16:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

72% 10% $-894

Politics

15% 43% +$92

Sports

9% 50% +$11

Crypto

3% 100% +$1

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 485 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	372	$19.7K	11,031	10,377	+655	open	—	01-28 14:09
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	347	$7.6K	11,882	3,455	+8,427	open	—	01-31 08:45
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	3	$5.8K	2,757	3,049	-292	open	—	01-04 16:01
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	311	$4.2K	3,967	3,664	+302	open	—	01-23 17:36
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	92	$3.2K	1,619	1,669	-50	open	—	01-25 21:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	116	$2.9K	15,714	8,525	+7,189	open	—	05-31 20:09
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	51	$2.6K	1,351	1,284	+67	open	—	01-17 18:39
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	111	$2.6K	1,369	1,278	+91	open	—	02-08 17:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	144	$2.5K	3,887	1,882	+2,005	open	—	02-28 19:25
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	170	$2.4K	2,320	1,547	+772	open	—	01-31 13:55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	96	$2.3K	7,783	1,993	+5,790	open	—	03-09 21:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	124	$2.2K	7,468	6,235	+1,232	open	—	06-15 01:09
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	75	$1.8K	1,826	561	+1,264	open	—	01-31 20:53
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	224	$1.8K	2,263	932	+1,331	open	—	02-01 03:56
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	104	$1.8K	1,190	608	+582	open	—	01-07 20:30
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	44	$1.7K	1,014	824	+190	open	—	01-25 09:12
will claude opus 4 7 thinking be the top ai model on april 24 2026 style control on	4	$1.6K	859	855	+4	open	—	04-24 22:24
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	50	$1.6K	1,841	1,997	-156	open	—	03-13 03:32
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	96	$1.5K	1,888	1,125	+763	open	—	03-03 18:22
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	55	$1.5K	4,128	784	+3,344	open	—	03-08 19:45
Total Kills Over/Under 26.5 in Game 1?	3	$1.3K	750	518	+233	open	—	04-25 18:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	39	$1.3K	2,095	1,452	+643	open	—	06-01 01:54
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	74	$1.2K	1,759	1,125	+634	open	—	02-28 21:37
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	61	$1.2K	2,775	2,821	-46	open	—	03-13 03:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	39	$1.2K	1,739	1,601	+137	open	—	06-01 01:54
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	89	$1.2K	598	632	-34	open	—	02-24 17:02
maduro out by january 31 2026 318	20	$1.2K	897	497	+400	open	—	01-03 09:36
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	95	$1.1K	3,404	3,001	+403	open	—	05-30 14:27
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	53	$1.1K	781	358	+423	open	—	01-26 12:58
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	16	$1.1K	644	484	+161	open	—	02-09 20:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-20 16:26:20	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 22 2026 20260607225940216 619	No	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0x3ce2d9…
06-20 16:24:17	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xbee2fd…
06-20 16:24:16	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	29	11¢	$3	0xfdfdab…
06-20 16:24:13	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	SELL	34	51¢	$18	0x2c581c…
06-20 16:24:10	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	206	23¢	$48	0x498d24…
06-20 16:24:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	SELL	280	1¢	$3	0xa9468d…
06-20 16:24:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	890	1¢	$10	0x941fbc…
06-20 16:18:59	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	No	SELL	6	14¢	$1	0xdfeea0…
06-20 16:18:53	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0xfe632e…
06-20 16:18:52	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	30¢	$2	0x33e535…
06-20 16:18:50	fifwc hrv gha 2026 06 27 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xb17e61…
06-20 16:18:46	will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	No	SELL	9	51¢	$4	0x24d4b8…
06-20 16:18:43	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x4ae60f…
06-20 16:18:38	will msft dip to 360 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x7b2132…
06-20 16:18:34	will belgium reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120759	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0xc54ca0…
06-20 16:18:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xa5b622…
06-20 16:18:20	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$2	0x77ce71…
06-20 16:18:17	bitcoin above 62k on june 24 2026	No	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x1523c1…
06-20 16:18:13	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x64b7da…
06-20 16:18:11	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x415b86…
06-20 16:18:08	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0x80e6cc…
06-20 16:17:52	will openais valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 882 628	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0x433a34…
06-20 16:17:46	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0xb1b01c…
06-20 16:17:41	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 spread home 1pt5	Bosnia and Herzegovina	SELL	15	43¢	$7	0x0917d2…
06-20 16:17:40	Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?	No	SELL	15	31¢	$5	0x0b5e41…
06-20 16:17:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0x444b06…
06-20 16:17:32	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x279351…
06-20 16:17:28	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	21¢	$4	0x983218…
06-20 16:17:23	fifwc tur usa 2026 06 25 spread away 1pt5	United States	SELL	18	23¢	$4	0xd9724c…
06-20 16:17:05	Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xe72899…
06-20 16:17:01	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x67afab…
06-20 16:16:56	Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	22	27¢	$6	0x144e90…
06-20 16:16:46	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	26	25¢	$7	0x3a81e7…
06-20 16:16:44	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	26	36¢	$9	0x26e8a1…
06-20 16:16:38	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	24¢	$6	0x7b2fdf…
06-20 16:16:37	Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	SELL	28	34¢	$10	0x4b6a77…
06-20 16:16:34	Base FDV above $8B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x1f8833…
06-20 16:16:31	will brazil reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120743	No	SELL	30	30¢	$9	0xc89a38…
06-20 16:16:28	Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	12¢	$4	0x112b44…
06-20 16:16:26	fifwc ury cvi 2026 06 21 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0xb25e7f…
06-20 16:16:13	fifwc bih qat 2026 06 24 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	33	19¢	$6	0x72ecc4…
06-20 16:16:08	Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	14¢	$2	0x6f66a1…
06-20 16:16:04	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	11¢	$4	0x4bc8a8…
06-20 16:16:01	Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	31¢	$11	0x79cadd…
06-20 16:15:59	base fdv above 5b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	36	40¢	$14	0xa019d3…
06-20 16:15:58	fifwc ecu kor 2026 06 20 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	36	39¢	$14	0x68af95…
06-20 16:15:49	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	39	12¢	$5	0xd46afb…
06-20 16:15:47	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x9a7666…
06-20 16:15:46	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0xe295c8…
06-20 16:15:43	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	44	6¢	$3	0x59e206…
06-20 16:15:41	will openais valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 937 533	Yes	SELL	44	12¢	$5	0xef6dd4…
06-20 16:15:38	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0xd82424…
06-20 16:15:37	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0x78080d…
06-20 16:15:37	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0x02385d…
06-20 16:15:34	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	49	39¢	$19	0x89bc34…
06-20 16:15:29	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	49	94¢	$46	0x9aa31b…
06-20 16:15:28	fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 corners team home 3pt5	Over	SELL	50	43¢	$21	0x254fc6…
06-20 16:15:26	will openais valuation hit low 700b by december 31 939 865	Yes	SELL	50	29¢	$14	0x299726…
06-20 16:15:19	fifwc col prt 2026 06 27 total 1pt5	Under	SELL	56	28¢	$16	0x116576…
06-20 16:15:17	world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	Yes	SELL	58	4¢	$3	0x1f864f…
06-20 16:15:16	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	60	35¢	$21	0x641d7e…
06-20 16:15:13	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	62	79¢	$49	0xa25db1…
06-20 16:15:10	Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	63	26¢	$17	0x0a9b31…
06-20 16:15:08	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	64	4¢	$2	0x48eff6…
06-20 16:15:07	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt35t by june 30	Yes	SELL	64	2¢	$1	0x9f725a…
06-20 16:15:04	Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	71	33¢	$23	0x05592a…
06-20 16:15:02	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	Yes	SELL	75	3¢	$2	0x0e5579…
06-20 16:15:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	76	55¢	$42	0x73fbeb…
06-20 16:14:58	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	Yes	SELL	80	8¢	$6	0x123055…
06-20 16:14:55	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 429	No	SELL	80	7¢	$6	0x8840da…
06-20 16:14:50	will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by june 30	Yes	SELL	82	1¢	$1	0x3b9826…
06-20 16:14:49	will israel and lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026 20260607225940217 843	No	SELL	82	12¢	$10	0x6394b1…
06-20 16:14:43	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	Yes	SELL	86	22¢	$19	0xe99490…
06-20 16:14:35	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0x3e10b6…
06-20 16:14:29	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	99	14¢	$14	0x51447a…
06-20 16:14:28	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	70	13¢	$9	0xd06328…
06-20 16:14:25	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x3cfa6e…
06-20 16:14:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x69850b…
06-20 16:14:22	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xfa9290…
06-20 16:14:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x7a7a6f…
06-20 16:14:14	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	SELL	105	18¢	$18	0xf7041a…
06-20 16:14:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	112	46¢	$51	0x6587a6…
06-20 16:14:07	ufc mel7 bia1 2026 06 20	Melissa Mullins	SELL	116	16¢	$19	0x4382a6…
06-20 16:14:05	Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	117	44¢	$52	0x02e1f9…
06-20 16:14:02	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	134	48¢	$65	0x4b1f9a…
06-20 16:13:55	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	SELL	156	6¢	$9	0xcb46cb…
06-20 16:13:53	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	158	18¢	$28	0xaaf4a9…
06-20 16:13:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	96¢	$154	0x5093fb…
06-20 16:13:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	165	13¢	$21	0x29c562…
06-20 16:13:46	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	179	14¢	$25	0xab3423…
06-20 16:13:43	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	184	41¢	$76	0xed56d3…
06-20 16:13:40	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	190	49¢	$93	0xe43330…
06-20 16:13:32	US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	45¢	$90	0xb91a72…
06-20 16:13:31	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	209	7¢	$15	0xd45b69…
06-20 16:13:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31	Yes	SELL	211	26¢	$55	0x1efff5…
06-20 16:13:28	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	215	11¢	$24	0x0fe4ab…
06-20 16:13:26	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	216	15¢	$32	0x97c152…
06-20 16:13:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	227	23¢	$53	0x032e96…
06-20 16:13:23	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	SELL	194	56¢	$109	0x13575e…
06-20 16:13:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	238	50¢	$119	0x18c5ec…