Naive-Waterwheel 0x10b289…e74ceb
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$790
Unrealized P&L
-$280
Hit rate
51.8%
Resolved
52
Trades
61,683
lifetime
Volume
$1.36M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$22
Open exposure
$484
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-20 16:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Other
72% 10% $-894
Politics
15% 43% +$92
Sports
9% 50% +$11
Crypto
3% 100% +$1
Tech
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 2637 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +181 $36 66¢ $119 +$82 06-20 16:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +248 $62 34¢ $86 +$23 06-20 14:42
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +75 $-12 100¢ $74 +$86 06-09 23:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -393 $-29 18¢ $-69 $-40 06-20 16:11
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No -85 $-55 62¢ $-52 +$3 06-20 16:13
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +43 $-33 70¢ $31 +$64 06-20 16:05
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes -39 $-21 41¢ $-16 +$5 06-16 07:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +43 $12 30¢ $13 +$1 06-20 00:32
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes -27 $-6 34¢ $-9 $-3 06-20 16:16
Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? Yes -30 $-6 24¢ $-7 $-1 06-20 16:16
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -8 $-0 26¢ $-2 $-2 06-20 16:24
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No +3 $1 52¢ $2 +$0 06-07 11:50
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes -18 $-4 9¢ $-2 +$3 05-29 04:41
Blue wave in 2026? No +4 $1 26¢ $1 $-0 06-18 06:12
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes -3 $-0 30¢ $-1 $-1 06-20 16:15
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes -500 $42 0¢ $-1 $-43 06-20 16:11
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03? No -10 $-2 4¢ $-0 +$2 06-20 16:18
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes -112 $98 0¢ $-0 $-99 06-20 16:11
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +47 $5 0¢ $0 $-4 06-19 13:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +32 $71 1¢ $0 $-71 06-20 16:12
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes +42 $7 0¢ $0 $-7 06-10 21:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Yes +62 $19 0¢ $0 $-19 06-20 16:15
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? Yes -23 $-0 0¢ $-0 +$0 06-18 10:51
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes -10 $48 0¢ $-0 $-48 06-20 16:13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes +38 $7 0¢ $0 $-7 06-20 16:17
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? Yes -30 $1 0¢ $-0 $-1 06-20 16:14
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes -30 $81 0¢ $-0 $-81 06-20 16:24
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes -0 $70 16¢ $-0 $-70 06-20 16:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -0 $20 14¢ $-0 $-20 06-20 16:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $34 0¢ $0 $-34 06-20 05:48