Terrific-Default-Age — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

—

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

64 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$272 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-07

last 09-04 06:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Politics

56% 30% +$29

Other

25% 42% +$7

Crypto

16% 6% -$34

Sports

3% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes		+5	$1	8¢	$0	-$1	09-04 06:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$83	572	72	+500	Yes	+$61	04-09 09:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	3	$35	90	45	+44	Yes	-$3	04-21 11:56
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$23	68	42	+26	Yes	-$20	04-21 11:56
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	1	$20	0	20	-20	Yes	$0	05-16 23:34
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	1	$12	20	0	+20	No	+$8	04-07 20:27
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:20 UTC	1	$10	45	0	+45	Down	-$10	04-09 07:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:10 UTC	1	$10	91	0	+91	Up	-$10	04-09 07:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$9	32	32	+0	No	+$5	06-21 12:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 16:00 UTC	2	$5	5	5	+0	Up	+$4	06-21 16:05
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$5	17	17	+0	No	+$1	07-04 12:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	21	0	+21	No	-$5	05-21 10:23
bitcoin above 76k on april 12	1	$4	72	0	+72	No	-$4	04-10 20:04
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$3	15	0	+15	No	-$3	06-21 16:18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$3	67	67	+0	No	+$1	05-25 15:49
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	1	$2	0	20	-20	No	+$2	04-10 07:16
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	1	$2	0	20	-20	No	+$2	04-21 11:43
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	1	$2	62	0	+62	No	-$2	04-10 07:18
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	1	$2	40	0	+40	No	-$2	07-04 12:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 11:55 UTC	1	$2	7	0	+7	Down	-$2	04-10 11:56
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$2	91	0	+91	No	-$2	05-18 11:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	1	$2	30	0	+30	No	-$2	05-21 10:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$2	42	0	+42	No	-$2	05-25 15:55
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	1	$1	0	20	-20	No	+$1	04-21 11:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$1	18	0	+18	No	-$1	06-21 13:02
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	143	0	+143	No	-$1	04-08 08:48
bitcoin above 82k on april 15	1	$1	83	0	+83	No	-$1	04-10 20:00
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	62	0	+62	No	-$1	05-18 11:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Up	-$1	05-21 09:41
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	1	$1	250	0	+250	No	-$1	07-04 12:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1	143	0	+143	No	-$1	04-08 08:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-04 06:39:42	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x7e001f…
09-04 06:39:00	Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?	Yes	SELL	111	1¢	$1	0xac55e7…
07-04 12:19:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x705903…
07-04 12:17:05	Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	260	0¢	$1	0x939b07…
07-04 12:16:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x2db0fb…
07-04 12:08:20	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	17	17¢	$3	0x900369…
06-21 20:55:41	Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x3511e5…
06-21 20:42:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd7a010…
06-21 16:18:13	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0xdad607…
06-21 16:05:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$4	0xe6ed53…
06-21 16:00:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-21 16:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x165329…
06-21 15:58:46	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x435762…
06-21 15:48:38	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x2ab834…
06-21 13:02:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	18	7¢	$1	0xf18381…
06-21 12:44:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	32	20¢	$7	0x27d91f…
05-25 15:55:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x010dbf…
05-25 15:49:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	67	2¢	$2	0x4ba13c…
05-22 04:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x20c146…
05-21 10:23:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x9d9a73…
05-21 10:20:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xe3b0ca…
05-21 10:06:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0xf7a3ab…
05-21 10:01:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x2a6ff1…
05-21 09:41:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x77f60e…
05-21 07:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb2971a…
05-21 07:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xebd4bc…
05-21 07:47:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd1a43b…
05-21 07:38:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x940d02…
05-18 11:21:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x91f0f3…
05-18 11:07:11	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x24de8c…
05-17 01:51:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xfa66ae…
05-16 23:40:54	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x2656d8…
05-16 23:34:45	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd3b7fe…
04-21 11:56:10	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	26	6¢	$1	0xa8fa38…
04-21 11:56:02	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	44	4¢	$2	0x2c9ba1…
04-21 11:43:16	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xfe37a6…
04-21 11:43:00	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xd9a299…
04-21 05:45:12	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	SELL	42	4¢	$1	0xb316a3…
04-10 20:04:17	bitcoin above 76k on april 12	Yes	BUY	72	5¢	$4	0xb74b83…
04-10 20:00:27	bitcoin above 82k on april 15	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x9f32c2…
04-10 19:54:15	bitcoin above 82k on april 16	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x575086…
04-10 14:27:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x3964a0…
04-10 11:56:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 11:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x7a6524…
04-10 11:53:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 11:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xaf9434…
04-10 11:48:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xc7c6c9…
04-10 11:16:31	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	SELL	45	36¢	$16	0xaab9b8…
04-10 07:18:19	Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	3¢	$2	0x2f1f6a…
04-10 07:16:23	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x33d2dc…
04-10 06:13:45	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x9348f4…
04-10 06:10:39	Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x64b1c3…
04-10 06:08:23	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xbb7c24…
04-10 06:07:31	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0xd6ec35…
04-10 06:00:27	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x214230…
04-10 06:00:01	Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x912939…
04-09 09:32:51	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xbe0045…
04-09 07:22:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x235753…
04-09 07:15:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xdefde8…
04-08 08:49:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xd7c1fd…
04-08 08:48:11	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x909d22…
04-08 08:47:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xfbd08d…
04-08 08:12:23	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	45	37¢	$17	0x7a493a…
04-08 06:57:35	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	No	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xcc2953…
04-08 06:36:27	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x604f77…
04-07 20:27:11	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x9241b4…
04-07 20:20:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xe682e1…