Modern-Belligerency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

96.9%

Resolved

121

Trades

141

lifetime

Volume

$1.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$26

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-29 03:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 37 days

Categories

Other

51% 97% +$3

Politics

24% 86% -$33

Crypto

22% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No		+18	$18	100¢	$18	+$0	10-29 03:09
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+8	$8	100¢	$8	+$0	10-05 01:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	4	$178	91	91	+0	No	+$0	09-01 03:51
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	2	$95	48	48	+0	Yes	+$0	08-16 22:59
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$49	49	0	+49	Yes	+$0	08-05 06:25
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$46	47	0	+47	No	+$2	08-14 00:49
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	08-10 06:40
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$1	08-20 18:58
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$0	09-14 15:38
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$41	42	0	+42	No	+$0	09-10 19:38
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	09-07 01:40
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-23 09:54
will spy reach 780 in june 2026	1	$38	38	0	+38	No	+$0	06-30 00:58
will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	09-28 04:45
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$34	40	0	+40	Yes	-$34	10-15 07:11
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	07-30 16:30
nvda above 130 on march 31 2026	1	$23	23	0	+23	Yes	+$0	03-31 02:30
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	10-18 07:30
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	09-17 12:31
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	1	$18	18	0	+18	open	—	10-29 03:09
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 781	1	$16	16	0	+16	No	+$0	02-24 21:28
Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	05-14 06:38
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$8	8	0	+8	open	—	10-05 01:42
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	04-28 09:15
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	2	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-08 18:59
will anthropic have the third best ai model at the end of january 2026	1	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-08 10:36
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-22 00:53
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-19 11:51
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	10-01 00:49
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-01 01:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-22 20:57
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-23 00:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 03:09:47	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xad6df4…
10-18 07:30:32	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0x6349c3…
10-15 07:11:58	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	40	83¢	$34	0xec586f…
10-08 13:24:02	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x17c6b5…
10-05 01:42:49	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe0e6bb…
10-01 00:49:23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf923c7…
09-28 04:45:21	will bitcoin reach 97pt5k in september 2026	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x15ea34…
09-24 10:15:09	Will XRP reach $2.80 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x86863b…
09-23 09:54:01	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc29751…
09-23 00:24:44	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x03ead7…
09-22 20:57:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xd69a5d…
09-19 11:51:57	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x69f9a4…
09-17 12:31:28	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x652374…
09-14 15:38:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$41	0x01b9b0…
09-10 19:38:01	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$41	0x418461…
09-07 01:40:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$41	0x73e918…
09-04 07:23:18	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x30805a…
09-01 03:51:19	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0x8dddf2…
09-01 01:21:37	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xde58f9…
08-30 04:04:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xe2960d…
08-26 16:38:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	96¢	$44	0x71f971…
08-24 19:47:16	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0xcee924…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0x94a91d…
08-23 17:56:45	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x898437…
08-23 17:54:22	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	0¢	$0	0x34904d…
08-22 22:52:24	will xauusd dip to 3900 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4c6b86…
08-20 18:58:09	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x0d4185…
08-17 22:22:31	Will Baidu be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4a80e4…
08-16 22:59:01	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0xaedeed…
08-16 21:55:51	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	48	99¢	$47	0x3282bd…
08-14 00:49:45	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	47	97¢	$46	0x82fb05…
08-10 06:40:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x5ec186…
08-09 20:53:36	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb4093d…
08-09 15:36:00	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3df265…
08-05 06:25:00	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x9a2a4c…
07-30 16:30:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xfcec97…
07-30 12:04:54	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xf7b8dc…
07-29 17:03:35	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb6ddc1…
07-29 15:18:33	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x707f74…
07-29 10:51:20	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x4acbee…
07-29 02:39:53	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd5e3d6…
07-28 14:46:23	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0a8493…
07-28 01:54:25	will spy dip to 690 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x18c4a0…
07-26 05:15:49	will spy reach 770 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x672faf…
07-24 14:47:31	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xedb6ca…
07-24 11:51:18	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe285c7…
07-24 08:43:10	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x65f5ef…
07-22 07:31:01	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x07dfb3…
07-22 00:43:27	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0b94f7…
07-21 01:18:55	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,400 in July?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xab7f78…
07-17 10:31:16	will xagusd reach 70 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x66e5d3…
07-04 22:32:26	will ethereum dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x57f4e7…
06-30 00:58:44	will spy reach 780 in june 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x8c057f…
06-27 20:43:40	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x4660af…
06-27 19:40:58	will xauusd reach 4800 in june 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x13038d…
06-27 06:53:17	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x080728…
05-30 18:27:14	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5b6138…
05-30 00:30:29	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x798510…
05-27 05:20:23	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc6e423…
05-23 01:59:26	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x93b2bd…
05-14 06:38:05	Will Germany be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xac5131…
05-11 23:26:28	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3c3798…
05-10 21:00:30	Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1bd083…
05-09 21:05:22	Will Solana dip to $40 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x04bce0…
05-08 18:59:42	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x833e63…
05-08 18:13:49	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x418f0a…
05-08 17:45:42	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x02fe64…
05-08 01:14:39	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd8e605…
05-05 22:55:44	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $264 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e0a0b…
05-05 20:59:34	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3f8486…
05-05 18:34:50	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb23452…
05-05 17:28:44	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x5962d8…
05-05 15:15:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xde3c92…
04-28 09:15:14	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x0c66ad…
04-25 14:29:32	Will BNB dip to $400 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc04a0b…
04-24 07:09:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x72bb1a…
04-22 00:53:22	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9012cc…
04-21 12:56:52	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7b74ce…
04-20 05:33:48	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcfb4be…
04-19 13:39:44	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x1cf56b…
04-18 20:07:02	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x0ac3bf…
04-18 09:17:06	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xef4ed1…
04-17 18:41:34	will the bank of russia increase the key rate after the april meeting	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x996c3e…
04-16 21:18:56	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4f668e…
04-16 15:09:02	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc9f66a…
04-15 23:07:02	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb94e37…
04-15 03:06:38	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xea9453…
04-14 12:09:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x160696…
04-13 21:51:15	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x88a076…
04-13 06:45:59	Will Google (GOOGL) close above $220 end of April?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x2548e3…
04-05 13:48:41	Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x5dcb17…
03-31 02:30:21	nvda above 130 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x09459c…
03-29 11:13:58	will solana dip to 50 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8b38dd…
03-28 07:33:57	will openai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7788b0…
03-26 12:07:13	will openai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ae513…
03-24 15:49:27	will hyperliquid dip to 12 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x03f6e2…
03-23 12:06:31	will ethena reach 0pt2 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaf6e82…
03-21 22:47:41	will elon musks net worth be between 700b and 710b on march 31	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf62c65…
03-21 08:17:31	will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x69334d…
03-20 04:29:21	will solana dip to 20 in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcc7ca9…