Unaware-Doubling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$794

Unrealized P&L

-$297

Hit rate

53.0%

Resolved

Trades

155

lifetime

Volume

$25.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$163

Open exposure

$362

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 03:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

76% 21% +$546

Other

24% 40% +$327

Sports

0% 0% -$79

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes		+6,590	$659	6¢	$362	-$297	06-28 03:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	11	$8.4K	7,943	7,943	+0	Yes	+$5,254	02-28 21:38
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	9	$3.0K	15,368	15,368	+0	Yes	-$2,273	02-28 21:35
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	10	$1.2K	2,309	2,309	+0	No	+$248	01-23 21:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	11	$1.1K	6,212	6,212	+0	No	-$241	01-30 21:21
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	4	$991	7,657	4,283	+3,375	No	-$391	06-15 22:29
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	5	$962	4,250	4,250	+0	No	+$185	03-09 21:16
us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by march 31 2026	4	$826	736	736	+0	Yes	+$560	03-04 02:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$787	5,387	0	+5,387	No	-$787	03-19 18:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$659	6,590	0	+6,590	open	—	06-28 03:54
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$543	3,046	0	+3,046	No	-$543	03-04 03:32
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	3	$512	1,930	1,930	+0	No	+$10	01-23 20:57
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$502	9,937	9,937	+0	No	-$173	06-15 22:28
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$497	6,549	6,549	+0	No	-$153	06-15 17:30
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$449	6,910	6,910	+0	No	-$242	06-11 22:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$359	8,089	8,089	+0	No	-$246	05-21 04:55
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$301	791	791	+0	No	+$1	03-07 16:00
us x venezuela military engagement by january 31 2026 977	1	$271	1,425	0	+1,425	Yes	+$1,154	01-02 03:06
Iran leadership change by June 30?	4	$235	5,820	0	+5,820	No	-$235	06-13 22:55
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$235	408	408	+0	Yes	+$35	01-09 06:06
will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	6	$228	4,930	4,930	+0	No	-$182	01-30 21:21
will khamenei leave iran by jan 16 974	6	$226	6,758	6,758	+0	No	-$179	01-15 12:40
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	1	$200	1,667	0	+1,667	No	-$200	03-09 21:17
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	2	$187	3,659	3,659	+0	No	-$26	02-25 03:36
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$178	2,092	2,092	+0	No	-$15	05-27 05:53
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$171	13,422	13,422	+0	No	-$9	05-27 05:54
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$169	2,722	2,722	+0	No	-$49	02-28 00:37
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	2	$167	550	550	+0	No	-$40	01-10 22:52
us strikes iran by january 11 2026 946	3	$162	1,547	1,547	+0	No	-$72	01-11 14:48
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	2	$155	6,221	0	+6,221	No	-$155	02-28 13:56
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	4	$122	3,813	1,505	+2,307	No	-$82	06-15 17:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 03:41:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 6–8%?	Yes	BUY	1,025	10¢	$100	0xa7369b…
07-13 21:08:29	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	254	6¢	$15	0x19703e…
07-05 21:41:52	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	690	2¢	$15	0xb9f037…
06-28 03:54:01	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6,590	10¢	$659	0x28c0be…
06-24 23:06:41	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,617	6¢	$91	0xbc7f04…
06-15 22:29:18	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	928	12¢	$109	0x89b479…
06-15 22:28:46	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7,354	2¢	$118	0xb51043…
06-15 17:30:52	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	BUY	2,307	1¢	$27	0xbfc8b3…
06-15 17:30:19	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,537	2¢	$29	0xef81db…
06-13 23:04:34	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	27	8¢	$2	0xc13880…
06-13 23:03:46	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	SELL	85	3¢	$2	0x7f875d…
06-13 22:55:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	685	3¢	$20	0x88afd9…
06-13 22:54:10	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	SELL	1,505	1¢	$20	0x27b0f1…
06-11 22:54:34	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,354	4¢	$51	0xbb7466…
06-11 22:54:19	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,354	4¢	$50	0x5a32bd…
06-11 22:48:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6,910	2¢	$104	0x761333…
06-10 19:33:22	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0xca0030…
06-10 19:31:55	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	SELL	943	1¢	$11	0xac7b37…
06-10 17:57:31	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	BUY	1,242	3¢	$33	0x037ade…
06-10 17:56:13	Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	BUY	943	1¢	$10	0x3a47aa…
06-10 17:47:27	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,600	3¢	$46	0x787945…
06-10 03:55:24	Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?	Yes	BUY	264	16¢	$42	0xa17e4a…
06-10 03:47:58	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,354	4¢	$50	0x74bb4b…
06-09 06:11:04	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,425	5¢	$70	0xd672cd…
06-09 06:10:28	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,222	4¢	$100	0xf80a6d…
06-09 06:03:34	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,424	4¢	$100	0x142eaa…
06-09 06:03:31	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,137	3¢	$100	0xff8fe8…
06-08 19:02:27	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,356	4¢	$95	0xc1d84e…
06-08 19:01:34	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3,412	3¢	$96	0x47aa49…
05-27 06:09:23	Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	3,412	7¢	$225	0x68d8f6…
05-27 06:08:37	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,583	2¢	$46	0xcb1670…
05-27 05:54:58	Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13,422	1¢	$81	0xe661ef…
05-27 05:53:29	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,092	4¢	$82	0x1a7964…
05-27 05:53:13	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2,017	2¢	$36	0x7173fe…
05-26 16:47:26	Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,017	2¢	$32	0x042524…
05-26 16:47:03	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,940	2¢	$35	0xa422e4…
05-23 20:47:31	Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,583	1¢	$36	0xf0f7a1…
05-23 20:36:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	SELL	1,214	3¢	$37	0x506bd9…
05-23 19:16:48	Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,092	5¢	$96	0xb5747a…
05-23 19:14:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	BUY	1,214	3¢	$34	0x67ea13…
05-23 19:09:34	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,940	3¢	$50	0xced629…
05-23 19:09:24	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,447	12¢	$300	0x5a826e…
05-23 19:09:03	Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	13,422	1¢	$90	0x948ddd…
05-21 04:57:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,132	5¢	$57	0x1dba36…
05-21 04:55:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	8,089	1¢	$57	0x824a85…
05-14 00:00:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,777	5¢	$289	0xc65dce…
05-14 00:00:08	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4,283	7¢	$300	0x214e29…
05-13 21:23:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	179	1¢	$3	0x57e785…
05-13 20:29:17	Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4,283	7¢	$283	0x356fa9…
04-20 10:42:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4,275	3¢	$150	0x9207da…
04-19 20:48:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,635	4¢	$150	0xe18de8…
03-19 18:42:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	3,578	14¢	$501	0x6dbc68…
03-19 17:15:07	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,861	3¢	$65	0xf53475…
03-09 21:18:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,809	16¢	$286	0x9b92ae…
03-09 21:17:31	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	BUY	1,667	12¢	$200	0xd61089…
03-09 21:16:25	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	SELL	2,795	17¢	$486	0x53860d…
03-07 16:01:07	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	576	26¢	$151	0x32fc96…
03-07 16:00:57	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	791	19¢	$151	0x1dd349…
03-04 03:32:45	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	3,046	18¢	$543	0x676f7f…
03-04 03:29:55	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	2,219	7¢	$150	0xef59e8…
03-04 02:49:51	us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	679	94¢	$638	0xd368ea…
03-04 02:43:49	us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	55	96¢	$53	0xc5cd92…
03-04 02:10:07	us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x4a5934…
03-02 14:52:49	will germany strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	666	13¢	$87	0x6a833d…
03-02 14:52:37	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,456	6¢	$87	0xff35ae…
03-01 15:57:15	us anti cartel strikeoperation on foreign soil by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	736	18¢	$133	0xab0539…
03-01 15:55:45	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	791	19¢	$150	0xb4571b…
03-01 06:23:29	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,607	1¢	$20	0x68cfef…
03-01 03:52:47	us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	Yes	BUY	647	15¢	$100	0xb91475…
02-28 21:38:41	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	6,534	98¢	$6,403	0x7e539b…
02-28 21:37:07	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,456	6¢	$87	0xabbae8…
02-28 21:35:59	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	942	9¢	$87	0x181cb1…
02-28 21:26:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	942	11¢	$102	0xc4df32…
02-28 21:26:29	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	110	92¢	$102	0xf2bf27…
02-28 13:56:41	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	5,669	2¢	$106	0xcf0aa6…
02-28 13:55:11	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	136	78¢	$106	0x20d185…
02-28 00:44:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,105	26¢	$287	0x8f2ceb…
02-28 00:44:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	Yes	SELL	14,426	2¢	$287	0x827fd5…
02-28 00:44:03	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	230	26¢	$60	0x2390f1…
02-28 00:37:49	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	2,722	2¢	$60	0x514806…
02-27 18:06:37	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	2,722	4¢	$109	0x782b34…
02-27 18:05:35	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	605	18¢	$109	0xf837b3…
02-25 03:36:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	402	20¢	$80	0x672dc7…
02-25 03:36:30	us strikes iran by february 25 2026	Yes	SELL	3,659	2¢	$80	0xeb9eb8…
02-24 18:48:00	us strikes iran by february 25 2026	Yes	BUY	3,659	3¢	$106	0x4d6e19…
02-24 18:47:20	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	558	19¢	$106	0xc2cdc2…
02-17 22:42:53	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	3,166	18¢	$570	0x7c1fef…
02-03 19:36:48	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	3,014	19¢	$568	0xe14cc8…
01-30 21:21:42	will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	Yes	BUY	552	9¢	$50	0xe7dfd4…
01-30 21:21:18	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	SELL	3,826	1¢	$27	0x90bf94…
01-30 21:21:16	will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	Yes	SELL	4,930	0¢	$23	0xe0ea01…
01-28 12:45:51	will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,150	2¢	$18	0xa6df23…
01-28 12:45:23	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	Yes	SELL	810	2¢	$18	0x901bd6…
01-26 18:04:23	will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,131	1¢	$17	0xd988e4…
01-26 18:03:55	Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	Yes	SELL	417	4¢	$17	0xa92e0b…
01-23 21:11:56	will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,085	9¢	$95	0x54fa92…
01-23 21:11:34	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	SELL	270	35¢	$95	0x96ad01…
01-23 20:59:30	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	250	34¢	$85	0x1f8790…
01-23 20:59:14	will france uk or germany strike iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	616	6¢	$40	0x9b3ddd…
01-23 20:57:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x658a49…