Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.60K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.98K

Hit rate

81.7%

Resolved

213

Trades

2,395

lifetime

Volume

$127.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$53

Open exposure

$10.4K

21 positions

First seen

2026-07-03

last 10-30 12:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 63 days

Categories

Other

51% 67% +$981

Politics

42% 77% +$336

Tech

6% 50% +$210

Sports

1% 100% +$28

Crypto

0% 100% +$40

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (18) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+7,100	$5,782	82¢	$5.9K	+$75	10-28 15:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+1,950	$605	88¢	$1.7K	+$1,120	10-29 17:31
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,513	$1,061	83¢	$1.3K	+$195	10-30 00:15
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	+611	$335	88¢	$537	+$202	10-29 09:12
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	+242	$200	88¢	$213	+$13	10-29 17:48
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	+238	$175	75¢	$178	+$3	10-30 12:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+140	$88	94¢	$132	+$43	10-27 10:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+113	-$10	94¢	$106	+$116	10-29 17:31
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	+100	$75	98¢	$98	+$23	10-07 23:00
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+100	$70	82¢	$82	+$13	10-30 09:38
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	+58	$29	84¢	$49	+$20	10-30 11:08
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	+261	$52	16¢	$42	-$10	10-24 23:54
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+40	$36	95¢	$38	+$2	10-06 19:39
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+50	$26	55¢	$28	+$2	10-12 16:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	+29	-$77	86¢	$25	+$101	10-29 05:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+30	-$3	32¢	$10	+$12	09-30 20:25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+20	$9	42¢	$8	-$1	10-29 02:11
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$4	98¢	$5	+$0	07-03 14:16
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+0	$0	94¢	$0	+$0	07-23 17:49
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$21	100¢	$0	+$21	09-21 12:19
AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	+0	-$28	91¢	$0	+$28	09-17 21:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	129	$14.4K	14,550	12,600	+1,950	open	—	10-29 17:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	48	$8.0K	8,400	1,300	+7,100	open	—	10-28 15:11
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	41	$5.9K	3,173	3,173	+0	No	+$161	09-17 04:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	45	$4.3K	2,573	2,544	+29	open	—	10-29 05:52
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	63	$3.2K	2,867	1,353	+1,513	open	—	10-30 00:15
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	55	$2.7K	2,038	1,448	+591	No	+$423	08-29 12:07
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	35	$2.6K	2,141	1,530	+611	open	—	10-29 09:12
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	25	$2.5K	1,539	1,539	+0	open	—	09-23 12:45
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$2.4K	1,500	1,400	+100	Yes	+$110	07-29 07:43
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	28	$2.2K	1,260	1,260	+0	open	—	09-15 20:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	46	$2.2K	1,345	1,232	+113	open	—	10-29 17:31
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	12	$2.1K	1,159	1,159	+0	No	+$120	08-18 13:35
Trump renames AI by September 30?	30	$2.1K	1,460	1,460	+0	Yes	-$38	09-29 21:25
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	42	$1.8K	1,208	1,208	+0	open	—	10-23 09:49
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	17	$1.8K	1,025	1,025	+0	No	+$91	07-13 10:59
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	13	$1.6K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$113	08-18 14:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	34	$1.6K	1,050	950	+100	No	+$158	07-14 05:58
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	20	$1.6K	858	858	+0	open	—	10-27 03:55
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	16	$1.5K	850	850	+0	No	+$30	09-22 14:37
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	16	$1.4K	851	851	+0	No	+$13	09-22 17:55
israel x iran ceasefire continues through october 31	22	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-28 08:13
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	13	$1.2K	850	850	+0	Yes	+$10	09-02 10:12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	30	$1.1K	1,081	1,081	+0	open	—	10-26 00:15
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	22	$1.0K	582	582	+0	No	+$15	09-30 19:54
israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260627173804884 615 954 754 586	17	$1.0K	560	560	+0	Yes	+$55	07-14 17:57
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	10	$991	600	600	+0	Yes	+$7	07-07 15:41
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	1	$990	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$10	07-18 22:57
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	9	$985	550	550	+0	No	+$70	08-02 20:52
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?	12	$982	550	550	+0	No	+$19	09-20 13:16
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	45	$941	1,140	1,140	+0	Yes	-$130	09-02 17:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:06:03	Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	76¢	$23	0x6340b8…
10-30 11:08:13	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x19dd43…
10-30 09:38:30	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xd7df66…
10-30 00:15:18	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	80¢	$27	0x0f85eb…
10-29 22:56:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xc364fa…
10-29 22:56:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x024b67…
10-29 17:48:49	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xab2eb3…
10-29 17:31:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	90¢	$180	0x30ca52…
10-29 17:31:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	50	95¢	$48	0x64a8bc…
10-29 09:12:01	US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xb20c6b…
10-29 05:52:13	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	200	87¢	$174	0x967327…
10-29 02:11:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x8e3918…
10-28 16:30:08	Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$49	0x2b7eb3…
10-28 15:18:14	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0xee35ea…
10-28 15:11:38	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xa9dc2d…
10-28 14:59:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x068bb1…
10-28 14:36:17	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	194	83¢	$161	0xc82171…
10-28 14:27:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xc56d3e…
10-28 08:13:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	450	97¢	$437	0xc91183…
10-28 05:19:34	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x16547d…
10-28 01:48:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x827c0d…
10-27 19:04:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0xc6de97…
10-27 18:22:11	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x613110…
10-27 16:13:06	Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	58	80¢	$46	0x71783f…
10-27 11:06:30	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x953684…
10-27 10:41:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	103	93¢	$96	0xd83f5f…
10-27 10:38:42	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xa5703b…
10-27 09:52:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	47	93¢	$44	0x6b07e0…
10-27 07:52:08	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x7c9682…
10-27 07:42:06	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	44	86¢	$38	0x513129…
10-27 06:03:50	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	86¢	$48	0x135a94…
10-27 04:40:51	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x3e981e…
10-27 03:56:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	290	97¢	$281	0x95d3a9…
10-27 03:55:06	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	260	99¢	$257	0xd67949…
10-26 19:41:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	100	93¢	$93	0x693ca3…
10-26 14:21:47	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	79¢	$40	0x000285…
10-26 11:11:33	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x7a8079…
10-26 03:49:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	42	90¢	$38	0xbb0bed…
10-26 03:41:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	33	90¢	$30	0xd79071…
10-26 03:40:38	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0xbd4654…
10-26 03:40:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xea94e0…
10-26 03:40:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x52d1f6…
10-26 00:15:05	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	802	34¢	$277	0x5d7204…
10-25 23:27:02	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	111	0¢	$0	0x641016…
10-25 23:25:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xa7f19a…
10-25 23:25:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0x385b3a…
10-25 23:24:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	7	10¢	$1	0x64547e…
10-25 23:24:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	193	10¢	$18	0x0db9c0…
10-25 22:29:59	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0xf71748…
10-25 14:55:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0xf25158…
10-25 11:16:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0xb28c72…
10-25 03:02:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x67978d…
10-25 02:25:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x29b0a8…
10-25 00:20:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	72¢	$72	0x8fc5dd…
10-24 23:54:56	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	20¢	$6	0xc32799…
10-24 22:52:50	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	151	95¢	$143	0x6718d4…
10-24 15:58:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	81¢	$81	0x582b8f…
10-24 11:43:23	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xac5913…
10-24 04:20:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x7ceae6…
10-24 03:29:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0xaf0b8c…
10-24 03:27:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0xd6db3e…
10-24 03:27:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xeace74…
10-24 03:27:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x988ed1…
10-24 02:59:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xc459c7…
10-24 02:44:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xdf0600…
10-23 11:46:05	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x056f62…
10-23 11:39:02	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x701259…
10-23 09:49:17	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0xaa8c74…
10-22 20:44:11	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0xfd50ab…
10-22 20:44:11	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	130	76¢	$99	0x651418…
10-21 21:29:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0xa70524…
10-21 20:56:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x0e7113…
10-21 18:37:20	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xe10469…
10-21 18:26:24	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	100	71¢	$71	0x5dcfc1…
10-21 15:28:51	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0x14f622…
10-21 14:41:50	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0xb58c34…
10-21 14:30:44	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	34¢	$32	0x6f0de9…
10-21 12:18:26	Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x627791…
10-21 07:17:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0xa2142e…
10-21 06:56:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x4f9ecc…
10-21 05:42:41	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	164	86¢	$141	0x6f6b01…
10-20 14:41:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x2ad5e2…
10-20 12:18:35	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x7c1ea0…
10-20 12:05:05	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	73¢	$73	0x248aec…
10-19 17:09:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x37dcdd…
10-19 15:52:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xf99251…
10-19 15:27:47	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	32	67¢	$22	0x46d3ba…
10-19 14:29:17	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x7b71cd…
10-19 14:28:56	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x0872b8…
10-19 14:26:47	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x496307…
10-19 12:08:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x7c0622…
10-19 11:05:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xe00663…
10-19 08:03:59	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x17db17…
10-19 03:50:23	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31?	No	BUY	50	77¢	$38	0x2f16e2…
10-19 00:08:24	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	No	SELL	174	97¢	$169	0xac9152…
10-18 14:20:12	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	BUY	50	82¢	$41	0x5ae979…
10-18 11:27:57	Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?	No	SELL	248	98¢	$244	0x6a079c…
10-18 07:16:32	Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x0b12bb…
10-17 23:25:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	150	93¢	$140	0xfa5530…
10-17 19:33:47	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x3fe815…