Dazzling-Vulture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$40

Unrealized P&L

+$9

Hit rate

58.7%

Resolved

Trades

101

lifetime

Volume

$769

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$34

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-22

last 10-26 17:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 38 days

Categories

Other

68% 19% -$32

Politics

24% 33% -$9

Sports

3% 40% +$6

Crypto

3% 100% +$4

Tech

1% 0% -$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	-51	-$13	18¢	$-9	+$4	05-15 21:15
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+56	$10	14¢	$8	-$2	10-06 11:26
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+11	$6	64¢	$7	+$1	09-07 18:42
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+18	$5	24¢	$4	-$1	09-07 18:43
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	+48	-$6	6¢	$3	+$9	09-20 17:30
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+6	$3	26¢	$1	-$2	09-07 19:00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+2	$1	35¢	$1	$0	10-26 17:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	4	$83	270	222	+48	open	—	09-20 17:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$75	67	65	+1	Yes	+$16	04-23 10:37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$51	31	31	+0	No	+$11	04-13 16:00
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$50	76	0	+76	Yes	+$26	03-22 09:59
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	4	$46	35	34	+1	Up	+$6	04-27 17:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1	$40	91	0	+91	Yes	-$40	04-13 06:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$35	311	310	+0	No	-$5	05-08 11:05
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	2	$32	68	68	+0	Yes	+$12	04-23 12:30
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	2	$31	21	21	+0	open	—	10-26 17:19
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$24	92	86	+6	No	+$4	04-22 18:40
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$19	28	0	+28	No	+$10	03-22 10:06
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	3	$15	18	9	+9	Up	-$5	04-27 03:54
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$13	0	51	-51	open	—	05-15 21:15
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$13	19	19	+0	No	+$3	05-09 18:05
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	2	$11	67	67	+0	open	—	10-12 15:57
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	2	$11	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	05-23 08:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$10	31	31	+0	No	-$10	05-09 14:33
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$10	17	17	+0	No	+$0	05-13 14:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$10	17	17	+0	No	-$10	06-01 06:34
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$10	449	0	+449	No	-$10	03-22 10:05
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	10-06 11:26
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	1	$10	42	0	+42	Yes	+$32	04-22 18:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	1	$10	77	0	+77	No	-$10	04-19 18:50
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$9	14	14	+0	No	-$1	04-29 08:24
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	2	$8	83	83	+0	open	—	09-07 18:59
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$8	24	24	+0	No	-$2	05-05 19:37
Iran leadership change by May 31?	2	$8	33	33	+0	No	-$2	05-05 19:37
Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	2	$7	31	31	+0	No	-$3	05-21 07:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$7	71	71	+0	No	-$3	05-05 19:38
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	2	$6	24	24	+0	open	—	09-07 18:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 17:21:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x81feb9…
10-26 17:19:17	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0x92f73c…
10-21 05:50:15	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xcdaea9…
10-12 15:57:57	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	1¢	$1	0x49ed9c…
10-06 11:27:19	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4531e2…
10-06 11:26:43	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x9231d8…
09-20 17:30:40	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x79134e…
09-20 17:30:34	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	15¢	$10	0x0952cf…
09-19 10:39:16	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xe3b265…
09-16 09:49:22	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	SELL	222	20¢	$44	0xb0c14e…
09-14 19:14:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xe37c4c…
09-07 19:00:40	Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x4e08ae…
09-07 18:59:39	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	SELL	83	4¢	$3	0x604a6f…
09-07 18:45:37	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	69	13¢	$9	0xb96197…
09-07 18:45:15	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Yes	BUY	154	13¢	$20	0x6b1e21…
09-07 18:43:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x00d847…
09-07 18:42:58	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x8435da…
09-07 18:38:54	Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x90c37f…
09-07 18:37:49	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	5¢	$1	0x1df9b4…
08-05 06:12:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2d8058…
07-29 18:32:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xa70c7f…
07-23 17:40:18	Will FC Santa Coloma vs. SK Rapid Wien end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xfa9fbe…
07-23 17:40:04	Will FC Santa Coloma win on 2026-07-23?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xee450d…
07-13 09:19:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xedd75d…
07-08 08:30:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc0c68a…
07-08 08:29:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x96f6e4…
07-01 16:20:20	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x702b83…
06-30 06:38:22	Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcdab5a…
06-30 06:37:59	Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xdc833b…
06-21 14:02:55	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4e0f11…
06-21 14:02:34	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x0731e1…
06-21 14:02:22	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf26946…
06-19 16:53:55	Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb2fcba…
06-17 04:24:46	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x647115…
06-11 20:15:46	Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xaf6fe5…
06-11 20:14:19	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xf5792f…
06-01 17:34:04	Will Guatemala win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xfce107…
06-01 17:33:52	Will Austria win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x40bbdc…
06-01 17:32:07	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa98058…
06-01 06:34:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0x38655b…
05-26 16:40:36	Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x7775dd…
05-23 08:02:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x112faf…
05-22 18:53:55	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	162	3¢	$5	0xf3fbb1…
05-21 07:26:48	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Yes	SELL	31	6¢	$2	0x307ac7…
05-20 12:50:05	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x8639ce…
05-15 21:17:02	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x798a55…
05-15 21:15:10	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	51	25¢	$13	0xe0bd72…
05-15 07:25:44	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf629dd…
05-14 04:56:44	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x62a78f…
05-13 14:08:19	Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	17	32¢	$5	0x2184a9…
05-11 10:11:41	Will Reform UK win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x9e9e90…
05-11 10:08:30	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x89893e…
05-09 18:05:57	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	19	42¢	$8	0xc89a3c…
05-09 18:04:39	Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0xcc62b3…
05-09 18:04:35	Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x411ec5…
05-09 14:33:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	SELL	31	2¢	$0	0x272b58…
05-08 11:06:23	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Yes	SELL	281	0¢	$1	0xe5ca14…
05-08 11:06:04	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?	Yes	SELL	73	0¢	$0	0x4ddd1a…
05-08 11:05:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	294	0¢	$0	0x742c42…
05-05 19:38:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0xd5fb04…
05-05 19:37:54	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	33	9¢	$3	0x6f01c2…
05-05 19:37:30	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	SELL	24	14¢	$3	0xe07fe2…
05-04 09:30:42	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by May 15?	Yes	BUY	73	7¢	$5	0xc7b83b…
05-02 08:01:00	Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0x1b34ec…
04-30 17:49:56	Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x7ea526…
04-29 14:55:04	Kash Patel out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc88665…
04-29 08:24:42	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	14	31¢	$4	0x17618d…
04-27 17:49:48	Will Trump dance today?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xbad8c1…
04-27 17:45:42	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	17	73¢	$13	0xb0333d…
04-27 16:47:36	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0xf5fdf2…
04-27 03:57:10	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xa5d789…
04-27 03:56:42	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x7518e0…
04-27 03:54:08	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0xf76301…
04-26 11:54:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xf2b41a…
04-26 11:52:08	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x6ed0ef…
04-25 08:00:18	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Ninjas in Pyjamas	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x7635da…
04-24 18:50:54	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x283ff4…
04-24 18:50:48	Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x94aab6…
04-24 18:49:56	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x098d52…
04-24 18:49:48	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 27?	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5905ed…
04-24 17:06:44	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair before May 15?	Yes	BUY	292	2¢	$5	0xa09791…
04-23 16:39:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0x14b09c…
04-23 12:30:50	Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	68	32¢	$22	0x4fce3b…
04-23 10:37:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	65	69¢	$45	0xb52974…
04-22 18:50:34	Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x1c32bd…
04-22 18:49:04	tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x0a68dc…
04-22 18:47:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xb87c41…
04-22 18:40:44	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	86	16¢	$14	0xb60db3…
04-22 06:36:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xb923dd…
04-22 05:33:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0x96ebd7…
04-19 18:50:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x154021…
04-19 18:49:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x2577fb…
04-18 08:31:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x9357dd…
04-18 08:31:08	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	92	11¢	$10	0x87d680…
04-13 16:00:27	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xcfbacb…
04-13 06:42:05	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	91	44¢	$40	0x79bc09…
04-12 16:25:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xd8a217…
03-22 10:06:57	will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	28	66¢	$19	0x8f9e63…
03-22 10:05:57	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	449	2¢	$10	0xa284e5…
03-22 10:00:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x370bc4…