Failing-Conditioner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

$28

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-07 00:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Politics

37% 75% +$48

Other

30% 100% +$10

Sports

24% 45% -$92

Tech

9% 100% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+100	$5	14¢	$14	+$9	05-26 10:26
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+144	$6	4¢	$6	+$1	05-11 06:23
Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?	Yes	+14	$5	29¢	$4	-$1	05-04 04:56
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	+287	$10	1¢	$4	-$6	05-26 10:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$500	267	267	+0	No	+$4	05-20 11:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$315	193	193	+0	No	+$10	05-23 06:32
Iran leadership change by April 30?	1	$217	264	0	+264	No	+$48	04-07 10:23
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$210	217	0	+217	No	+$6	03-18 09:23
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$209	220	0	+220	No	+$11	01-17 10:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$178	1,980	1,980	+0	No	-$20	01-17 10:39
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	1	$162	165	0	+165	Yes	+$3	05-25 10:11
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$92	225	0	+225	No	-$92	05-19 06:32
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	6	$81	82	0	+82	Yes	+$1	05-26 11:53
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	1	$66	113	0	+113	Yes	+$47	07-05 19:52
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$64	138	0	+138	No	-$64	06-05 07:56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	4	$62	67	0	+67	Yes	+$5	06-22 06:37
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	1	$55	62	0	+62	No	+$7	06-15 05:29
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$50	100	100	+0	No	+$32	07-19 17:48
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$45	51	51	+0	Yes	+$10	06-04 07:46
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$31	53	0	+53	Yes	+$22	05-29 04:05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$30	34	0	+34	Yes	+$3	07-20 04:29
Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	8	$17	50	0	+50	No	-$17	06-04 06:59
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	1	$15	43	0	+43	No	-$15	06-06 05:18
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	1	$10	287	0	+287	open	—	05-26 10:25
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$9	90	0	+90	No	-$9	06-07 04:29
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$9	103	0	+103	No	-$9	06-05 10:37
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	1	$6	144	0	+144	open	—	05-11 06:23
Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-04 04:56
Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	1	$5	24	0	+24	open	—	05-04 04:56
Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South?	1	$5	18	0	+18	open	—	05-04 04:56
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	1	$5	100	0	+100	open	—	05-26 10:26
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	2	$4	200	200	+0	open	—	10-07 00:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 00:03:09	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$1	0x84c394…
07-20 04:29:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	90¢	$30	0x3efa9b…
07-19 17:48:48	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0xc522d5…
07-05 19:52:41	Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	BUY	113	59¢	$66	0x7e9b0f…
06-22 06:37:43	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$29	0xc427b6…
06-22 06:36:16	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x9340d0…
06-22 06:34:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x77683e…
06-22 06:31:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x2eae64…
06-15 05:29:18	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	62	89¢	$55	0x333950…
06-07 04:29:55	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	90	10¢	$9	0x38ed15…
06-06 05:18:33	Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	Yes	BUY	43	34¢	$15	0xccb7b5…
06-05 10:37:58	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	103	8¢	$9	0xc2ea2e…
06-05 07:56:04	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	138	46¢	$64	0x7bd299…
06-05 05:56:46	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0x28ea45…
06-04 07:46:37	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	51	54¢	$27	0x06aec0…
06-04 06:59:31	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	34¢	$0	0x495a0d…
06-04 06:56:52	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x632876…
06-04 06:56:51	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xb4fcca…
06-04 06:56:49	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7	34¢	$2	0x0076c2…
06-04 06:52:30	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x0f3f20…
06-04 06:52:27	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x988bf0…
06-04 06:52:24	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xdf8b1d…
06-04 06:52:22	Will Brazil be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x7e46ae…
05-31 04:18:14	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	51	35¢	$18	0x4f41fc…
05-29 04:05:27	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	53	58¢	$31	0xeaf2fa…
05-26 11:53:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x66a39f…
05-26 11:49:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x60381f…
05-26 11:29:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1d8f02…
05-26 11:25:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xdda693…
05-26 11:09:39	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xd906e1…
05-26 10:28:49	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$51	0x60243b…
05-26 10:26:08	Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xe7cc1c…
05-26 10:25:56	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	287	3¢	$10	0xb8b28b…
05-26 10:25:05	Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x35b3a8…
05-25 10:11:06	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	165	98¢	$162	0x089b36…
05-23 06:32:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	193	84¢	$162	0x0f283b…
05-20 12:00:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	193	79¢	$152	0x347ddd…
05-20 11:56:15	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	162	94¢	$153	0x17f0ad…
05-19 06:32:01	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	225	41¢	$92	0x85f322…
05-19 06:30:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	99	95¢	$94	0xce2273…
05-11 06:23:31	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	144	4¢	$6	0xa6a17a…
05-11 06:22:56	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x456740…
05-07 09:49:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	267	93¢	$248	0x8896de…
05-04 04:56:56	Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x23efde…
05-04 04:56:42	Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xc0c26e…
05-04 04:56:28	Will New Orleans Saints win the 2026 NFC South?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x4ee856…
04-07 10:23:11	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	264	82¢	$217	0x8d8d5c…
03-18 09:23:29	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	217	97¢	$210	0x18c188…
01-17 10:44:30	will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	No	BUY	220	95¢	$209	0x0ffe3c…
01-17 10:39:54	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	SELL	1,980	4¢	$79	0xf7219d…
01-17 10:39:10	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,980	5¢	$99	0x4398ef…