Timely-Spur — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$168

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

55.3%

Resolved (30d)

369

Trades (30d)

1,397

6,976 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$8.31K

$70.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$71

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-28 16:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 171 days

Categories

Other

66% 49% -$558

Politics

23% 36% -$141

Crypto

5% 53% -$56

Tech

4% 33% -$49

Sports

2% 14% -$121

Pop-Culture

1% 25% -$92

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

80 active days in 12wk • peak 171 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+50	$48	96¢	$48	+$0	10-26 03:50
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	+20	$18	78¢	$16	-$2	10-28 13:44
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	+21	$1	22¢	$5	+$3	10-28 13:38
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+51	$2	4¢	$2	$0	10-26 01:04
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?	No	+20	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	10-26 01:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	13	$1.9K	1,247	1,247	+0	No	+$0	05-27 13:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	12	$1.5K	1,218	1,218	+0	No	+$1	05-26 06:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	15	$970	938	938	+0	No	+$0	05-27 14:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	11	$942	833	833	+0	No	+$1	05-26 03:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	10	$802	711	711	+0	Yes	$0	05-26 14:57
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	7	$621	388	388	+0	No	+$0	05-25 15:42
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$620	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-25 14:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$619	364	364	+0	No	+$0	05-25 14:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 11 2026?	4	$571	830	830	+0	No	-$24	05-14 09:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	10	$551	544	544	+0	No	+$0	05-27 14:37
Will Jonas Vingegaard win the 2026 Tour De France?	10	$533	300	300	+0	No	$0	07-08 07:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	3	$499	304	304	+0	No	+$0	05-25 05:24
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 66 and 67 million views on day 4?	28	$462	356	235	+121	Yes	+$7	09-09 15:43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	9	$460	330	330	+0	No	+$0	05-27 15:07
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$459	300	300	+0	No	+$9	05-14 18:37
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	4	$400	343	343	+0	No	-$12	06-08 00:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$400	294	294	+0	No	+$0	05-22 10:12
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$399	232	232	+0	No	$0	05-24 17:25
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 58.0 million views on day 4?	34	$396	232	272	-40	Yes	+$18	09-23 15:57
will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	9	$369	300	200	+100	Yes	-$1	09-04 19:01
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	8	$366	258	258	+0	No	$0	06-29 00:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$360	327	327	+0	Yes	+$0	05-28 17:18
Will Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?	6	$355	200	200	+0	No	$0	07-09 03:18
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 26 and 28 million views on day 2?	24	$352	285	140	+145	Yes	+$27	09-14 11:12
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$343	253	253	+0	No	-$6	06-02 23:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	10	$338	311	311	+0	Yes	-$60	05-30 04:02
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	8	$321	330	330	+0	Yes	-$9	06-02 23:48
Will MrBeast's next video get between 65 and 66 million views on day 6?	18	$317	426	0	+426	Yes	+$9	09-25 10:14
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?	32	$309	361	269	+92	No	-$41	08-25 03:08
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 72 and 73 million views on day 5?	29	$301	329	82	+247	Yes	+$39	09-10 11:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 16:14:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xd1fe12…
10-28 16:14:29	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xbb7605…
10-28 15:54:08	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0x8d0bc5…
10-28 15:52:25	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x635792…
10-28 15:23:14	Will voter turnout be 78% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xdc5262…
10-28 15:12:10	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x599a35…
10-28 14:33:46	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x3d5127…
10-28 14:16:58	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x742660…
10-28 14:16:10	Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd197b8…
10-28 13:44:59	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xc17857…
10-28 13:43:55	Will voter turnout be 78% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x1d09c7…
10-28 13:38:32	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x954fe0…
10-28 13:16:56	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xe6d2a6…
10-28 13:13:25	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xf02980…
10-28 13:11:55	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf58332…
10-28 13:07:29	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xc3818a…
10-28 13:06:02	Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x4e74d1…
10-28 10:47:55	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x95e46f…
10-28 10:20:34	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x856543…
10-28 10:08:08	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x8d8b24…
10-28 09:40:04	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	19	4¢	$1	0x9177c7…
10-28 09:16:22	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x19f7be…
10-28 08:49:20	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x931d24…
10-28 08:45:11	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x14d93e…
10-28 08:44:02	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x6e4693…
10-28 08:44:02	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	17	8¢	$1	0x5514fa…
10-28 08:12:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x42fbc0…
10-28 08:10:47	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	70	2¢	$2	0xd12b24…
10-28 08:10:25	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x88e862…
10-28 07:42:02	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x32f55e…
10-28 07:36:31	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x3ea76e…
10-28 07:32:07	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x64a30a…
10-28 07:29:25	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xb3e4a4…
10-28 06:57:28	Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	121	2¢	$2	0xf2fc7d…
10-28 06:32:37	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x13f280…
10-28 06:27:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x894bff…
10-28 06:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	10	77¢	$8	0x9801d0…
10-28 06:03:43	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x1e3d5a…
10-28 05:56:47	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x824a12…
10-28 05:47:55	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe182a5…
10-28 05:34:16	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x8571e4…
10-28 05:23:50	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$18	0xbc3e9b…
10-28 05:18:32	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xa1f2f8…
10-28 05:11:44	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x4ca171…
10-28 04:57:44	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa75c69…
10-28 04:57:10	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0xe011cc…
10-28 04:45:05	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x44c419…
10-28 04:44:05	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0xd47419…
10-28 04:44:05	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x3bea47…
10-28 04:33:40	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x2b0362…
10-28 04:26:38	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x805037…
10-28 04:09:50	Will United Torah Judaism win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x7f260e…
10-28 03:44:34	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x4eba12…
10-28 03:19:37	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x90df38…
10-28 03:17:01	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x45db5d…
10-28 03:10:15	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x51fd57…
10-28 03:10:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x7848f8…
10-28 02:41:51	Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe8189a…
10-28 02:41:42	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xb11504…
10-28 02:41:42	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 28?	No	BUY	13	6¢	$1	0x810586…
10-28 02:25:06	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x3fe478…
10-28 02:19:20	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on October 28?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xa5720e…
10-28 01:51:06	Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x075d04…
10-28 01:48:39	US imports Russian diesel by November 2?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x753be9…
10-28 01:36:35	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x63e4c6…
10-28 01:31:32	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2b70d5…
10-28 01:31:32	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0x17ac2d…
10-28 01:29:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x2569e4…
10-28 01:23:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x8dab3d…
10-27 21:33:24	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf63958…
10-27 21:04:57	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0xbb96ee…
10-27 15:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	SELL	16	4¢	$1	0xe2b266…
10-27 15:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	SELL	4	4¢	$0	0x0471d7…
10-27 15:22:42	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf13fd9…
10-27 15:22:35	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	18	0¢	$0	0xe56711…
10-27 15:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0x23c0b4…
10-27 15:21:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 27?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x192ffa…
10-27 15:20:47	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be -1°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xb40eac…
10-27 10:22:36	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x511703…
10-27 10:13:02	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	2	24¢	$1	0xe70bc5…
10-27 10:13:00	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0xa77c25…
10-27 07:49:56	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on October 28?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x8d0e54…
10-27 07:38:08	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xc8ec99…
10-27 06:20:27	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x0b8f03…
10-27 06:03:11	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 27?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0d871b…
10-27 05:58:12	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x19341d…
10-27 04:18:44	Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0xd8a47c…
10-27 04:00:44	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x03ed93…
10-27 02:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x8f9503…
10-27 02:40:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xe13368…
10-27 02:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x3f488d…
10-27 02:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x49eb7d…
10-27 02:34:35	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x7c8421…
10-27 02:32:47	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x9bb1d8…
10-27 02:28:02	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xea3eab…
10-27 02:23:29	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x557f9d…
10-27 02:23:14	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x4572d1…
10-27 02:19:05	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0x32dad7…
10-27 02:18:50	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on October 26?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd54a30…
10-27 02:18:50	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on October 26?	Yes	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x806d05…