Agitated-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.3%

Resolved

Trades

356

lifetime

Volume

$4.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 08-07 19:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

36% 0% $-2

Politics

34% — —

Sports

12% 40% $-1

Crypto

10% 100% +$7

Tech

7% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$181	184	184	+0	open	—	05-15 17:21
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	6	$156	80	80	+0	open	—	07-19 17:54
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	16	$120	62	62	+0	open	—	07-14 22:06
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	3	$108	91	91	+0	open	—	07-20 10:28
will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	9	$108	61	49	+12	open	—	08-07 19:47
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	3	$107	70	70	+0	open	—	07-26 11:05
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	14	$105	53	53	+0	open	—	07-09 16:35
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$102	782	782	+0	open	—	05-15 07:56
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	4	$87	45	45	+0	open	—	07-18 12:23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	8	$84	43	43	+0	open	—	05-28 06:57
will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	4	$81	42	42	+0	open	—	08-03 12:38
will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	4	$80	41	41	+0	open	—	07-28 14:18
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	2	$78	41	41	+0	No	+$3	05-12 14:54
will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	4	$75	43	43	+0	open	—	07-29 18:25
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	2	$72	65	26	+39	open	—	07-08 06:24
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 20 20260717012517323	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	07-19 22:21
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 11?	2	$68	70	0	+70	No	+$2	05-10 22:54
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 on May 10?	1	$68	69	0	+69	No	+$1	05-10 22:44
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	10	$67	681	681	+0	open	—	07-05 09:12
will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	3	$60	41	21	+20	open	—	07-31 11:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$50	20,020	10,020	+10,000	open	—	05-28 17:06
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 15?	2	$48	24	24	+0	open	—	05-15 11:50
GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?	2	$46	24	24	+0	open	—	05-12 02:55
us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	07-31 11:16
andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-27 18:22
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-23 13:44
will xauusd dip to 3800 in july 2026	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-30 10:00
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-30 06:22
mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-29 13:09
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396 786	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	07-28 17:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 15:55:46	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xc71d21…
08-12 15:43:42	grok 4pt6 released by august 14 2026 20260804192931964 932 684 491	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xb20f89…
08-07 19:47:48	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xcb99ca…
08-07 19:47:46	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x03b029…
08-07 17:41:30	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x815145…
08-07 14:40:22	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x38b0ee…
08-07 13:07:16	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x163f15…
08-07 11:30:01	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xff5a00…
08-07 10:25:45	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x7f9db6…
08-07 08:20:13	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x10ebb9…
08-07 05:18:00	will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x614db9…
08-03 12:38:32	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x57c676…
08-03 12:38:27	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	SELL	21	98¢	$20	0x0fb608…
08-02 23:39:20	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb409e7…
08-02 20:29:45	will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	Yes	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x34e85d…
07-31 11:40:47	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xcb886f…
07-31 11:16:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x5476ce…
07-31 03:24:23	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x829ab8…
07-31 02:26:35	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xec94ab…
07-30 14:40:27	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9bda1b…
07-30 10:00:14	will xauusd dip to 3800 in july 2026	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x4761a6…
07-30 06:22:50	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc728c9…
07-30 03:44:18	will xauusd dip to 3800 in july 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb03237…
07-30 02:08:38	will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xfafcb8…
07-30 02:04:00	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x0a1795…
07-29 18:25:42	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	SELL	21	82¢	$18	0xd78082…
07-29 18:25:30	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	SELL	21	82¢	$18	0x6795eb…
07-29 13:09:35	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc448c3…
07-29 12:22:24	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfce7fa…
07-29 09:00:21	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x2a23d6…
07-28 21:59:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xc1b61e…
07-28 17:48:14	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396 786	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x7bcdaa…
07-28 14:24:16	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xafeee2…
07-28 14:18:47	will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa986e1…
07-28 14:18:41	will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x3b0dd7…
07-28 08:34:07	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655083 396 786	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xc9f468…
07-28 06:17:37	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x02b6f2…
07-28 02:11:51	will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	No	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x18e02b…
07-27 20:03:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x1f79b2…
07-27 18:22:39	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x9fcbae…
07-27 11:01:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 28	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xb7046e…
07-27 07:09:52	will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x612209…
07-27 03:59:37	will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf7fd6c…
07-27 00:07:55	andrew tate released from custody by july 31 2026 20260719025109263	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xeda978…
07-26 11:05:04	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	42	83¢	$35	0xa95823…
07-23 22:18:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xbd5777…
07-23 13:44:31	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x56d531…
07-22 17:57:58	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xd53c2b…
07-21 18:16:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0xcff64c…
07-21 14:21:46	iran full airspace closure by july 24	No	BUY	38	93¢	$35	0xc4ee7e…
07-20 10:28:31	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	55	66¢	$36	0xf38896…
07-19 22:32:39	Will Camila Cabello perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xeb18a9…
07-19 22:21:58	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 20 20260717012517323	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x38573f…
07-19 21:43:25	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 20 20260717012517323	No	BUY	36	96¢	$35	0x42419d…
07-19 19:52:01	will tom brady attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357120	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x702a9a…
07-19 17:54:09	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xca6dc7…
07-19 17:54:07	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xf588e3…
07-19 15:09:34	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x0fddef…
07-18 12:23:37	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	37	99¢	$37	0xa28951…
07-18 06:28:52	will tom brady attend the 2026 fifa world cup final 20260716193357120	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xb92d90…
07-18 01:03:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xfc7983…
07-17 12:59:00	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0xc6804c…
07-17 06:40:27	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	36	98¢	$35	0x1d42b3…
07-16 13:20:08	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0x25b2d7…
07-15 22:03:02	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0xca5ffa…
07-15 13:27:38	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x6fd8c7…
07-15 13:27:35	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xf8baca…
07-14 22:06:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x06d6cb…
07-14 20:33:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x07df04…
07-14 19:59:34	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xe1f166…
07-14 17:00:02	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	8	96¢	$7	0x193545…
07-14 16:15:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x8af4a4…
07-14 16:15:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x3255fa…
07-14 16:14:59	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x81523d…
07-14 16:14:58	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x95ffac…
07-14 16:14:56	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xabc500…
07-14 16:14:53	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x1c8c22…
07-14 14:49:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xea64fc…
07-14 14:02:46	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xd0f112…
07-14 11:15:32	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xd722cc…
07-14 07:24:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xc2534f…
07-14 05:58:07	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0xbc7133…
07-14 05:05:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x506526…
07-13 23:46:16	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x1a2e57…
07-13 21:38:43	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0xc2e595…
07-13 20:08:52	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0xca5aaf…
07-13 19:58:22	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x7db86d…
07-13 19:37:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x76b47a…
07-13 16:52:32	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x83923d…
07-13 16:31:25	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xd398aa…
07-13 13:11:47	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x387b98…
07-12 19:48:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x25144a…
07-12 06:20:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xcd5c88…
07-10 11:33:13	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xc563ee…
07-10 02:12:35	Will Camila Cabello perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xbb34ec…
07-09 23:41:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	8	83¢	$7	0xde15ec…
07-09 22:18:22	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	SELL	8	74¢	$6	0x0e0cbb…
07-09 21:55:43	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x572e31…
07-09 21:45:05	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xc1c482…
07-09 17:07:13	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026 974	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$7	0xb79592…