Agitated-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$339

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

58.1%

Resolved

247

Trades

698

lifetime

Volume

$7.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 10-28 02:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Other

56% 55% -$127

Politics

21% 57% -$195

Crypto

10% 48% -$7

Sports

7% 32% -$12

Tech

5% 50% +$3

Pop-Culture

1% 67% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No		+8	$7	97¢	$8	+$0	08-21 15:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$181	184	184	+0	No	-$31	05-15 17:21
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?	38	$180	353	267	+86	No	-$41	05-11 01:39
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	6	$156	80	80	+0	Yes	+$1	07-19 17:54
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	10	$130	66	66	+0	No	+$0	07-23 12:15
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	16	$120	62	62	+0	No	$0	07-14 22:06
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	3	$111	65	65	+0	No	+$11	08-19 12:15
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	3	$108	91	91	+0	open	—	07-20 10:28
will the senate vote on the clarity act before the august recess 20260729185025133	9	$108	61	49	+12	No	+$0	08-07 19:47
us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	3	$107	70	70	+0	No	+$7	07-26 11:05
gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416 792	14	$105	53	53	+0	Yes	+$0	07-09 16:35
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	2	$102	782	782	+0	No	-$100	05-15 07:56
Will Alfredo Gaspar be the VP candidate of Flavio Bolsonaro?	10	$95	49	49	+0	Yes	-$1	08-13 17:59
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	12	$90	46	46	+0	No	+$0	09-11 04:11
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?	4	$87	45	45	+0	Yes	+$2	07-22 15:47
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	4	$87	45	45	+0	No	+$2	07-18 12:23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	8	$84	43	43	+0	No	+$0	05-28 06:57
Will "Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea" be the top US Netflix movie this week?	4	$81	44	44	+0	Yes	-$4	07-20 19:06
will spider man brand new day score at least 90 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20260630144026313	4	$81	42	42	+0	Yes	+$1	08-03 12:38
will trumps remarks not air 20260724170556653	4	$80	41	41	+0	No	+$0	07-28 14:18
Exact Score: CA Osasuna 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid?	2	$79	41	41	+0	No	+$2	05-12 19:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12?	2	$78	41	41	+0	No	+$3	05-12 14:54
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12?	2	$78	40	40	+0	No	+$1	05-12 09:42
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 12?	2	$77	39	39	+0	Yes	$0	05-12 13:24
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 12?	2	$76	38	38	+0	No	+$0	05-12 12:18
will xauusd dip to 3900 in july 2026	4	$75	43	43	+0	No	-$5	07-29 18:25
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 12?	2	$74	42	42	+0	Yes	-$3	05-12 09:42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	6	$72	37	37	+0	No	+$0	09-13 19:29
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 20 20260717012517323	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$1	07-19 22:21
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?	2	$70	36	36	+0	Yes	+$0	07-19 01:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13?	2	$70	127	127	+0	Yes	-$7	05-12 09:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 02:41:56	next alibaba qwen max 3pt9 released by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xf6fd4d…
10-28 02:41:00	next alibaba qwen max 3pt9 released by december 31 2026	No	BUY	19	61¢	$12	0xfb5273…
10-28 02:41:00	next alibaba qwen max 3pt9 released by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	61¢	$0	0x24a043…
10-27 14:09:56	Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	16	21¢	$3	0xa7acf1…
10-27 14:09:50	Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	SELL	4	32¢	$1	0xa16ae7…
10-27 14:07:17	Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xb9bb2b…
10-27 10:24:17	Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x31d2d6…
10-27 10:18:57	Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x12043d…
10-27 10:11:12	Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x50a94c…
10-27 10:11:12	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	SELL	25	38¢	$10	0x3fd506…
10-27 09:40:38	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xcaeef7…
10-27 09:40:38	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x3e6ea5…
10-27 09:35:17	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x05d1c8…
10-27 08:09:11	Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x6f7c12…
10-27 08:09:11	Will Arnab peak as a very severe cyclonic storm?	Yes	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x05d581…
10-27 06:31:18	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x8cd98a…
10-27 06:29:56	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xe5ab2f…
10-27 06:29:32	Will The Joint List win 7.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xe9272e…
10-27 04:03:47	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xc1697a…
10-27 02:46:11	will gemini 4 argon high be the best ai model on november 9 2026	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xe210b9…
09-26 13:23:35	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x31a4a0…
09-23 18:14:32	Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe19fb4…
09-23 01:57:19	Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf3d753…
09-23 00:03:16	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x38033b…
09-22 06:20:43	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x6a3c17…
09-22 06:08:48	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0xa5eef2…
09-21 21:02:34	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x61120c…
09-21 21:02:31	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x38de27…
09-21 20:50:18	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xbf5313…
09-21 17:49:01	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xb0b0db…
09-20 05:58:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xc7b0f9…
09-20 05:58:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x6d4e69…
09-20 04:57:36	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x869db3…
09-20 01:47:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xdad374…
09-15 23:09:06	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x2b925f…
09-15 15:57:40	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x1125e9…
09-13 19:29:30	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xbe82fa…
09-13 19:23:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x3fc3a7…
09-13 19:23:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x5a4962…
09-13 18:13:34	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x2ed608…
09-13 14:44:25	Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7e4c8e…
09-12 18:33:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x50a3ea…
09-12 12:23:09	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xdc7a29…
09-11 20:10:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x53fe04…
09-11 04:11:46	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xf0d9a8…
09-11 04:06:03	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x993437…
09-11 04:05:58	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x146d33…
09-11 04:05:55	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x7f1163…
09-11 04:05:51	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x477930…
09-11 04:05:46	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0xc9efaf…
09-10 09:28:54	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0x90fe94…
09-10 08:14:16	cs2 prv mgc 2026 09 10 game2	PARIVISION	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x252eda…
09-10 07:49:04	cs2 prv mgc 2026 09 10 game2	PARIVISION	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0x3173e5…
09-10 06:21:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xbecd65…
09-10 01:30:45	US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Alexander Zverev	SELL	9	88¢	$7	0x46d13a…
09-09 23:39:00	US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Alexander Zverev	BUY	9	88¢	$7	0x797c97…
09-09 22:04:24	US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	Karen Khachanov	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x4ccf45…
09-09 21:32:39	US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	Karen Khachanov	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x4c5199…
09-09 18:33:43	US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Alexander Blockx	Karen Khachanov	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x290766…
09-09 05:08:27	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xb9fc87…
09-08 22:59:24	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xc16e49…
09-08 22:29:22	Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x4ec6cb…
09-08 21:56:39	Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xef1a89…
09-08 20:14:12	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-08?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xdfeb5e…
09-08 20:14:07	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	SELL	16	11¢	$2	0x79a0ce…
09-08 18:31:33	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-08?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x72d06d…
09-08 18:31:27	Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-08?	Yes	BUY	16	46¢	$8	0xb6c2c5…
09-08 15:24:46	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$7	0xd2e6ea…
09-07 08:59:09	Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0x6c48d7…
09-07 00:54:00	Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0xc07131…
09-06 18:56:46	Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$7	0xf3611c…
09-06 05:38:58	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x0eddf5…
09-06 01:29:51	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xaa96a4…
09-04 20:06:46	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x145cc6…
09-04 19:34:03	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xd33770…
09-04 19:06:07	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x98f461…
09-04 18:55:36	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 5, 2026?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x20fd94…
09-04 04:59:40	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0xe74898…
09-04 00:07:49	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x59cb4b…
09-03 00:52:12	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0xb9a1bd…
09-02 23:57:39	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$12	0xdbd028…
09-02 22:48:54	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x51cee6…
09-02 20:20:27	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?	No	SELL	13	74¢	$9	0xaf8b3b…
09-02 19:59:36	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0x2a636e…
09-02 19:37:55	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 24 and 26 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0xf3fafc…
09-02 19:17:00	Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 22 and 24 million views on week 1?	No	BUY	13	94¢	$12	0xee2f17…
09-02 05:14:04	Will Cody Gakpo stay at Liverpool?	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x5259e2…
09-01 20:20:48	Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xc71176…
09-01 19:59:42	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	No	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x5ca365…
09-01 14:39:49	Will Cody Gakpo stay at Liverpool?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa6103c…
09-01 06:57:01	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xd02fce…
08-29 05:34:49	Will Julian Alvarez join Manchester City?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xf3013d…
08-29 04:39:48	Will Julian Alvarez join Barcelona?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0x73f0ae…
08-29 03:45:40	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0xbecef9…
08-29 00:06:46	Will Julian Alvarez join Manchester City?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xf9eee6…
08-28 12:39:15	Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?	Yes	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0x0c26ab…
08-27 05:06:52	Will India win?	Yes	SELL	12	72¢	$9	0x6f8635…
08-26 10:45:42	Will India win?	Yes	BUY	12	96¢	$12	0x0c9be7…
08-23 00:37:16	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x5f59ba…
08-23 00:37:12	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0x569dba…