Sad-Fill — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$16

Hit rate

93.9%

Resolved

Trades

156

lifetime

Volume

$3.46K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$137

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-18 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

53% 100% +$0

Politics

34% — —

Sports

13% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No		+87	$77	89¢	$77	+$0	06-19 09:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		-137	$-75	44¢	$-60	+$16	06-13 23:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$219	120	257	-137	open	—	06-13 23:36
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$171	89	89	+0	open	—	05-15 12:33
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	11	$161	207	207	+0	open	—	06-12 23:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	4	$160	103	103	+0	open	—	06-12 17:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$155	110	110	+0	open	—	06-15 11:43
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$146	90	90	+0	open	—	06-08 05:40
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	3	$145	74	74	+0	open	—	06-05 14:36
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$144	89	89	+0	open	—	06-04 16:02
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	3	$139	121	121	+0	open	—	06-10 01:29
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	4	$135	84	84	+0	open	—	06-15 06:58
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	3	$124	63	63	+0	open	—	06-12 14:06
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$120	80	42	+38	open	—	04-14 19:32
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$104	54	54	+0	open	—	06-05 07:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	3	$101	95	95	+0	open	—	06-01 21:39
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$97	72	71	+1	open	—	06-11 01:12
will purdue win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$88	47	47	+0	open	—	03-26 07:52
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$87	127	127	+0	open	—	04-11 23:06
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$85	52	52	+0	open	—	05-21 19:15
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$85	44	44	+0	open	—	04-25 03:20
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$85	50	50	+0	open	—	04-21 22:03
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$85	43	43	+0	open	—	04-26 09:06
Will Denmark win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$84	44	44	+0	open	—	03-28 09:30
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	7	$84	185	185	+0	open	—	04-25 13:05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	2	$78	40	40	+0	open	—	05-16 00:53
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	1	$77	87	0	+87	open	—	06-19 09:56
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	4	$77	41	41	+0	Yes	+$0	04-20 18:29
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$77	40	40	+0	No	+$0	04-24 12:18
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	5	$63	72	72	+0	open	—	05-20 00:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	05-18 00:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$53	63	63	+0	open	—	04-26 10:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-19 09:56:10	Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	87	89¢	$77	0xfbad18…
06-18 18:07:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	92	12¢	$11	0x8bcc7c…
06-18 18:07:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	61	12¢	$7	0x3760b9…
06-18 14:10:08	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	153	12¢	$18	0x3d319a…
06-18 04:34:02	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	102	6¢	$6	0x62ad67…
06-18 04:34:02	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	58	6¢	$3	0x44dbd2…
06-18 01:00:31	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	7¢	$11	0xd8668b…
06-17 01:08:16	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	146	8¢	$12	0xca1056…
06-17 01:06:50	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	146	8¢	$12	0x9f5bbd…
06-15 11:43:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x45deea…
06-15 09:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	47	71¢	$33	0xe7f5b7…
06-15 09:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	11	71¢	$8	0xb39189…
06-15 09:14:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	42	71¢	$30	0x282a50…
06-15 07:50:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0x793052…
06-15 07:50:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xe797f0…
06-15 07:50:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	45	70¢	$31	0xe48be9…
06-15 06:58:04	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xa56556…
06-15 06:58:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	82	81¢	$66	0xc774f5…
06-15 03:17:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x6bdfa0…
06-15 03:17:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	80	80¢	$64	0x92a1f0…
06-14 10:24:18	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	30	8¢	$2	0xe89996…
06-14 10:24:18	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	42	8¢	$3	0x51bc58…
06-14 07:38:49	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	72	6¢	$4	0x9790b3…
06-13 23:36:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	137	55¢	$75	0xe23321…
06-13 19:57:42	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	162	8¢	$12	0x31210c…
06-13 16:26:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	162	6¢	$9	0xbb1a57…
06-12 23:25:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	28	93¢	$26	0xefbaf7…
06-12 23:25:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	49	93¢	$46	0xef65d1…
06-12 20:50:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$36	0xa717bd…
06-12 20:50:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x439a4f…
06-12 17:32:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0xf8ab2a…
06-12 17:32:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	45	78¢	$35	0xb6ed24…
06-12 17:32:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	51	78¢	$40	0x809d01…
06-12 15:24:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	103	77¢	$79	0x2e9432…
06-12 14:06:51	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0xe1b482…
06-12 12:40:00	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x6ce422…
06-12 08:04:13	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	63	98¢	$62	0x7aa575…
06-11 01:12:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	68¢	$19	0x864a51…
06-10 22:13:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	43	68¢	$29	0x727536…
06-10 18:38:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xa43f5a…
06-10 18:38:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	67¢	$11	0xfe65ea…
06-10 18:38:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x222115…
06-10 01:29:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	71	57¢	$40	0xe9652b…
06-10 01:29:03	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0x53450b…
06-09 22:15:24	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	121	58¢	$70	0xecd5fd…
06-08 21:08:36	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	176	2¢	$4	0xfb097e…
06-08 17:27:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	176	2¢	$4	0xa2cf57…
06-08 05:40:22	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	90	81¢	$73	0xed833c…
06-06 00:33:00	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	90	81¢	$73	0x2e9735…
06-05 23:36:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x5d5aab…
06-05 23:36:57	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x203210…
06-05 20:27:21	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0x4c095f…
06-05 14:36:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	74	98¢	$72	0x4a0f11…
06-05 11:28:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x97b187…
06-05 11:28:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	54	98¢	$53	0x4b21b0…
06-05 07:45:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0xf1edfe…
06-05 07:45:40	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xeee800…
06-05 04:22:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0xa46e22…
06-05 04:22:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x9d0399…
06-05 00:06:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	66	4¢	$3	0xc762b6…
06-05 00:06:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	29	4¢	$1	0x4ad1de…
06-05 00:06:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x0539e4…
06-04 21:05:09	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	138	4¢	$6	0xd3c787…
06-04 16:02:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	43	82¢	$35	0xe956fb…
06-04 16:02:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	46	82¢	$38	0x647a60…
06-04 12:46:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	33	80¢	$26	0xca9103…
06-04 12:46:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x4eae84…
06-04 12:46:46	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x3d30c0…
06-02 18:33:45	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0x7dee3a…
06-02 18:31:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0xf8b1fb…
06-02 18:28:43	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x36a290…
06-02 18:27:55	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xfb3f52…
06-02 18:25:00	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0xca572a…
06-02 18:24:03	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	6¢	$4	0x877037…
06-02 14:21:35	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	6¢	$8	0x5cce7d…
06-02 05:30:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	120	60¢	$72	0xaae87d…
06-02 00:26:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	45	60¢	$27	0xbbd106…
06-02 00:26:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	75	60¢	$45	0x163d50…
06-01 21:39:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	95	52¢	$49	0x16709f…
06-01 18:58:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	54¢	$28	0xaf55c8…
06-01 18:58:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	54¢	$23	0x05cc74…
05-27 15:58:14	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x8e1328…
05-24 07:24:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	73	2¢	$2	0xa94c82…
05-24 07:24:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0x8e28b2…
05-24 07:24:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x748b5e…
05-24 06:15:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	126	2¢	$3	0x72e094…
05-24 02:17:53	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	27¢	$10	0x5ff82b…
05-24 02:17:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xe60521…
05-24 02:17:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	27¢	$9	0xbf3f1f…
05-24 02:17:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	27¢	$11	0x777846…
05-24 02:17:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	42	27¢	$11	0x2515ca…
05-24 00:06:48	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	3¢	$5	0x7f4840…
05-22 01:41:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	86	10¢	$9	0x50d9e7…
05-21 23:51:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	86	10¢	$9	0x9b6257…
05-21 19:15:55	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	52	82¢	$43	0xf1dc32…
05-21 18:03:07	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	52	82¢	$43	0x5042ab…
05-21 15:17:31	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x098c5f…
05-21 13:22:41	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xbaf5a6…
05-20 00:39:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0xa700e1…
05-19 22:58:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x4f77c9…