Realized P&L
-$3.36K
Unrealized P&L
+$700
Hit rate
5.7%
Resolved
1,795
Trades
9,729
lifetime
Volume
$141.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$5.37K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 12:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 140 days
Categories
Other
60% 6% -$2,133
Politics
27% 10% -$900
Tech
6% 4% -$99
Sports
5% 3% -$126
Crypto
2% 11% -$76
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$31
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 319 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) No +400 $310 96¢ $382 +$72 10-14 08:53
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +370 $304 96¢ $355 +$51 09-19 14:14
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? No +350 $341 95¢ $333 -$7 09-21 04:43
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +320 $261 98¢ $314 +$53 09-22 02:49
israel accuses iranproxies of plane stabbing incident by oct 31 No +302 $280 98¢ $297 +$17 10-01 19:19
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +289 $217 98¢ $283 +$65 10-15 03:53
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +294 $246 94¢ $275 +$29 09-17 15:46
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +291 $242 78¢ $229 -$13 09-22 08:09
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +202 $191 98¢ $198 +$7 09-24 15:08
will indiana enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027 No +228 $157 84¢ $190 +$33 09-30 10:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +200 $66 94¢ $189 +$123 09-28 16:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +200 $62 94¢ $189 +$127 09-28 16:28
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +191 $175 97¢ $185 +$10 10-16 20:11
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +184 $165 88¢ $162 -$3 09-18 03:04
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No +166 $158 97¢ $161 +$3 09-30 14:55
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +175 $156 88¢ $155 -$2 09-12 17:35
will the us announce a diesel export ban by october 31 No +139 $111 99¢ $137 +$27 09-23 22:18
will texas enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2026 No +130 $120 98¢ $127 +$8 09-30 02:30
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +136 $122 92¢ $125 +$3 09-29 15:57
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +125 $122 96¢ $121 -$1 09-12 16:16
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +115 $103 94¢ $108 +$5 09-13 05:54
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +155 $121 68¢ $106 -$15 09-18 00:14
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +119 $90 85¢ $101 +$11 09-18 23:28
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No +100 $91 97¢ $97 +$6 09-25 23:48
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +133 $92 72¢ $95 +$3 09-26 12:04
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +102 $89 92¢ $94 +$5 09-22 08:09
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? No +100 $85 94¢ $94 +$9 09-26 19:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October? No +91 $85 99¢ $90 +$5 10-01 11:08
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +92 $14 98¢ $90 +$76 09-30 18:50
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +112 $92 77¢ $86 -$6 09-11 12:56