Prudent-Engineer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.35K

Unrealized P&L

+$48

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

111

Trades

6,639

lifetime

Volume

$117.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$171

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-04

last 10-29 04:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Politics

88% 11% +$6,558

Other

12% 5% -$8,910

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	+3,188	$163	3¢	$107	-$57	10-29 04:49
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	+882	$5	3¢	$30	+$24	10-28 08:31
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	-500	-$115	6¢	$-27	+$87	06-16 00:06
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	+640	$13	1¢	$6	-$7	10-20 05:54
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+15	$1	4¢	$1	$0	08-24 09:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	78	$17.3K	10,000	10,000	+0	No	+$1,825	03-03 20:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	76	$16.5K	64,547	61,355	+3,192	Yes	+$14,119	03-02 12:27
will trump visit china by march 31	95	$16.0K	12,166	12,483	-317	No	+$7,743	03-20 08:08
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	57	$11.9K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$3,100	03-09 03:48
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	65	$6.7K	8,000	7,313	+687	Yes	+$7,177	02-28 06:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	21	$4.9K	22,000	24,000	-2,000	Yes	+$1,000	03-01 00:43
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	89	$3.5K	15,309	14,309	+1,000	No	-$3,048	04-24 07:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	22	$3.3K	1,088	6,028	-4,940	Yes	-$2,389	03-07 16:34
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 31 388	11	$2.5K	5,030	1,000	+4,030	No	-$2,449	03-30 07:00
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by march 31	70	$2.5K	35,573	676	+34,896	No	-$2,493	03-29 14:01
will the us invade iran by march 31	36	$2.5K	18,735	2,000	+16,735	No	-$1,851	03-27 16:08
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	178	$1.9K	31,502	3,511	+27,990	No	-$1,704	03-05 16:35
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	11	$1.9K	1,841	1,841	+0	Yes	+$1,774	04-07 15:22
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	9	$1.7K	5,000	761	+4,239	No	-$1,050	03-05 01:59
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	45	$1.6K	11,000	9,000	+2,000	Yes	-$405	03-08 06:04
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	22	$1.5K	2,600	1,318	+1,282	No	-$1,299	03-30 11:44
will the us next strike iran on february 27 2026 et	307	$1.5K	99,854	7,266	+92,588	No	+$103	02-28 10:19
usisrael strike on fordow nuclear facility by march 15	13	$1.3K	3,961	0	+3,961	No	-$1,287	03-08 03:25
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	551	$1.3K	31,487	0	+31,487	No	-$1,279	03-05 09:03
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	55	$1.2K	11,642	0	+11,642	Yes	-$1,227	04-01 14:39
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	33	$1.1K	7,369	8,540	-1,171	No	-$433	03-30 08:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	27	$997	10,046	0	+10,046	No	-$997	04-01 03:31
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	27	$859	9,030	0	+9,030	No	-$859	03-20 21:48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$721	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$721	03-05 08:00
will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	143	$580	10,039	50	+9,988	No	-$575	03-25 17:53
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	23	$573	4,365	0	+4,365	No	-$573	03-24 14:20
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	1	$510	10,000	0	+10,000	No	-$510	03-03 17:50
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	22	$490	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$10	03-14 13:07
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	120	$486	17,000	3,091	+13,909	No	+$132	02-21 00:24
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	4	$395	4,393	0	+4,393	No	-$395	04-11 02:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 04:49:59	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0xbb4a76…
10-28 20:05:25	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	313	4¢	$11	0xcb373a…
10-28 08:31:22	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x885422…
10-27 02:41:02	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	BUY	332	3¢	$11	0x1cb37c…
10-27 01:18:15	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	3¢	$2	0x2ce5db…
10-26 07:27:51	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	124	1¢	$1	0x3f5d29…
10-25 21:40:00	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x30c00a…
10-25 21:15:26	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	236	3¢	$8	0xe75831…
10-25 21:15:12	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	3¢	$2	0xae90df…
10-25 21:13:03	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x5b61fe…
10-25 21:12:45	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xec15f1…
10-25 21:12:18	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0x287ae9…
10-25 21:11:59	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	4¢	$2	0xa4dd22…
10-24 14:22:18	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	443	1¢	$3	0x93df6e…
10-24 12:13:11	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	35	1¢	$0	0xe27be9…
10-24 12:09:12	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x14a4fb…
10-20 05:54:21	Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	SELL	147	1¢	$1	0xf2b671…
10-20 04:47:26	Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	232	0¢	$1	0x99886f…
10-19 06:58:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x0b2754…
10-18 19:29:26	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0xa0b665…
10-17 08:04:50	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x94efd2…
10-16 23:29:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0xe8fb42…
10-16 23:27:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x48670a…
10-16 03:12:30	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	3¢	$1	0x9fdd86…
10-14 03:39:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x1af1ae…
10-12 21:48:35	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x6ae892…
10-12 21:31:18	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xe43034…
10-12 02:26:59	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	77	3¢	$2	0x0cee5b…
10-08 07:51:54	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	365	0¢	$2	0x8a3f82…
10-06 00:57:22	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$1	0x416a9e…
10-03 16:02:12	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	1¢	$1	0x9ee052…
10-02 02:59:14	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	1¢	$1	0xeca10a…
10-02 02:58:21	Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0x6b14ba…
10-02 02:54:15	Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	SELL	34	1¢	$0	0x286baf…
10-01 02:38:26	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	1¢	$1	0x6522d3…
09-30 04:01:12	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	2¢	$1	0x370606…
09-29 16:58:47	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	429	2¢	$7	0xe4e8a1…
09-29 12:29:27	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xba15b8…
09-29 11:46:42	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe2b54c…
09-29 11:06:36	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	70	11¢	$8	0xe33ab5…
09-28 14:15:35	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x82cc09…
09-28 13:29:36	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x91aa1b…
09-26 09:00:45	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xedd412…
09-26 00:15:09	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	2¢	$1	0xc226c1…
09-24 12:31:51	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x68c3a9…
09-24 05:32:48	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x10197b…
09-23 09:18:05	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0x95a8b6…
09-22 06:15:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	4¢	$1	0xbc0de4…
09-21 15:40:22	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x524241…
09-21 07:32:29	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0xf5adad…
09-19 08:44:10	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xfcf454…
09-18 06:08:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x1484f2…
09-17 19:53:10	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xce429d…
09-17 19:52:27	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$2	0xb48801…
09-17 05:33:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x55dc5f…
09-14 23:34:33	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xe13240…
09-13 18:59:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x514653…
09-12 08:28:48	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xc711e1…
09-11 08:44:43	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x1d3cc4…
09-09 04:19:22	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	96	4¢	$4	0x5e3211…
09-07 08:56:55	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x0cc7f2…
09-06 14:28:10	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x746f14…
09-06 08:29:13	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x7d8176…
09-04 22:57:58	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x95c233…
09-03 13:40:52	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	2¢	$1	0x973443…
09-02 18:07:46	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x830ca9…
09-01 09:19:52	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0xf1ef56…
08-31 05:04:22	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	2¢	$1	0x8de811…
08-30 15:50:58	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x177769…
08-29 07:17:28	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0x6c60c8…
08-29 07:15:54	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0x3fdb92…
08-27 07:30:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	32	4¢	$1	0xd64120…
08-26 15:26:31	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x4b9246…
08-25 16:30:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd86878…
08-25 14:38:30	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb1cf36…
08-24 09:48:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x83acbf…
08-22 06:18:04	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	2¢	$2	0xbbc40c…
08-20 02:16:19	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x4aa46b…
08-18 12:57:28	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xead964…
08-17 06:40:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xb3562a…
08-16 13:17:51	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x61f9d2…
08-15 08:24:57	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xfc8730…
08-14 13:23:46	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0xf6d4d9…
08-13 16:04:42	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	53	4¢	$2	0x20f864…
08-13 03:31:01	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xe9918d…
08-09 11:09:45	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	Yes	BUY	67	2¢	$1	0xbb0840…
08-08 07:15:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xa0c9b5…
08-07 03:22:49	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	123	4¢	$5	0x8f6a47…
08-07 02:49:28	Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	5¢	$5	0xea530b…
08-07 02:25:43	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb396d4…
08-07 01:25:34	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x83820c…
08-06 07:47:00	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	164	5¢	$8	0xe8e5b1…
08-06 05:59:02	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	353	2¢	$8	0x7dbd20…
07-26 23:30:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	5¢	$2	0x43136a…
07-23 18:27:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x6d8252…
07-20 12:02:00	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x612350…
07-17 02:05:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$3	0x2b72f3…
07-17 02:04:24	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	97	5¢	$5	0x2d3243…
07-15 17:57:29	Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xed4efd…
07-15 04:44:46	Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x71e430…