Sparkling-Yurt — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.61K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

33.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,969

lifetime

Volume

$6.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$149

5 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 09-26 09:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Tech

58% 20% -$1,332

Other

37% 38% -$333

Sports

3% 14% +$52

Politics

3% 100% +$5

Crypto

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+662	$86	14¢	$91	+$6	06-29 09:32
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+500	$49	6¢	$28	-$21	07-18 05:26
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	Yes	-34	-$28	79¢	$-26	+$2	06-11 04:47
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-20	-$4	17¢	$-3	+$1	05-06 05:10
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	-4	-$1	16¢	$-1	$0	09-26 06:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	439	$1.2K	33,635	15,245	+18,390	No	-$142	07-17 08:50
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	376	$772	35,075	4,019	+31,056	No	-$611	06-29 13:30
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	291	$363	19,992	0	+19,992	No	-$363	08-30 12:35
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	118	$274	6,925	7,036	-111	No	+$77	05-09 08:36
fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	29	$252	200	200	+0	Spain	+$83	07-14 20:25
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	33	$238	234	204	+30	Yes	+$42	05-02 05:31
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	17	$191	137	137	+0	Yes	+$11	02-20 08:57
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	21	$187	478	33	+445	No	-$162	05-16 07:24
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	12	$184	200	200	+0	Yes	+$109	05-21 19:35
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	71	$167	1,436	589	+847	No	+$18	04-28 19:32
gpt 5pt3 released by february 28 394 385	16	$164	107	107	+0	No	+$16	02-24 20:05
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	13	$132	177	0	+177	No	-$132	05-13 20:37
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	26	$107	558	498	+60	No	+$38	05-16 07:46
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	25	$99	875	82	+793	No	-$51	05-21 00:24
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	5	$99	700	38	+662	open	—	06-29 09:32
will openai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	23	$96	3,820	3,820	+0	No	$0	02-20 21:03
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	24	$87	1,070	140	+930	No	-$64	05-16 11:43
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	52	$80	2,198	115	+2,083	No	-$32	05-24 07:36
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	32	$78	2,259	0	+2,259	No	-$78	09-26 09:17
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	25	$66	720	310	+410	No	-$16	03-26 13:15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	5	$66	720	0	+720	Yes	-$66	08-30 16:55
Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	6	$65	65	60	+5	No	+$1	05-14 19:42
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$65	1,600	20	+1,580	No	-$59	07-15 20:58
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	28	$64	3,470	590	+2,880	No	-$50	07-08 08:56
Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?	10	$59	113	0	+113	No	-$59	05-10 05:59
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	10	$58	840	0	+840	No	-$58	07-11 16:47
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	27	$57	559	495	+64	No	+$5	05-13 15:09
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$56	220	23	+197	Yes	+$157	07-14 20:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	10	$51	145	39	+106	Yes	-$11	05-17 09:15
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	10	$49	500	0	+500	open	—	07-18 05:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-26 09:17:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	0¢	$1	0x16bb02…
09-26 06:26:11	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0x0df577…
09-26 06:11:29	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	0¢	$0	0x2756bc…
09-26 06:11:12	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xd71b4a…
09-11 21:23:13	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	392	3¢	$11	0xb83abc…
09-01 06:57:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x703b24…
08-30 16:55:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7997fd…
08-30 12:35:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	0¢	$0	0xf3c4f3…
08-30 12:12:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x58e6b4…
08-30 12:01:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xab283f…
08-30 11:58:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x7f13d0…
08-30 11:54:49	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xe7cd0d…
08-30 11:54:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x6069e7…
08-30 11:47:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	3¢	$7	0xf12984…
08-30 11:44:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xd14eac…
08-30 11:37:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x8183aa…
08-30 09:37:27	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x2e30b1…
08-30 09:34:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xfef1ef…
08-30 07:54:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$3	0x77974e…
08-30 07:54:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xbae2b2…
08-30 07:54:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	4¢	$4	0x1b53e4…
08-30 07:10:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x1c3927…
08-30 07:10:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xf8c32d…
08-30 07:09:55	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x06ba1f…
08-30 07:09:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x222cac…
08-30 07:08:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$4	0xc978ba…
08-30 07:08:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x060e66…
08-30 06:30:15	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	4¢	$3	0x753fdb…
08-30 06:29:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	4¢	$2	0xe4f6e9…
08-27 09:17:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x12417b…
08-27 09:17:30	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	200	1¢	$1	0x5a0477…
08-26 22:18:42	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0xe2bb11…
08-19 16:56:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xc01875…
08-19 14:14:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x06fb79…
08-19 13:14:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	1¢	$1	0x505694…
08-19 13:05:54	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x52d236…
08-19 12:17:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x838c82…
08-19 12:17:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x424bb5…
08-19 02:25:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	1¢	$1	0x68866f…
08-19 02:22:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x018686…
08-19 02:22:03	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	1¢	$2	0xe0a3f3…
08-19 02:22:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x03c012…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	1¢	$0	0xe2a741…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$4	0xb871d0…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xa0f5a5…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0x9b95ef…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	315	1¢	$3	0x855fa9…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x8107f7…
08-19 02:21:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x479ab9…
08-19 02:15:09	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	424	1¢	$3	0xf5cafd…
08-19 02:15:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0xb6a445…
08-19 02:05:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2b59f8…
08-19 02:05:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0x2a3e4a…
08-19 01:07:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	1¢	$2	0xf96ca1…
08-19 00:59:55	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf12d4c…
08-19 00:51:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xdcd899…
08-19 00:51:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x3d31e6…
08-18 23:51:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7a9ff2…
08-18 22:22:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe18c4c…
08-18 22:19:01	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe47078…
08-18 22:18:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb02815…
08-18 22:11:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x5e8280…
08-18 22:09:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xd64276…
08-18 22:01:33	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	1¢	$1	0xfe19c9…
08-18 22:01:27	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	1¢	$4	0x0b7dc1…
08-18 20:52:37	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x541e1c…
08-18 17:30:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	153	1¢	$2	0x4fa9d3…
08-18 17:00:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xb89b9b…
08-18 16:12:03	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	1¢	$1	0xd94d4c…
08-18 16:12:03	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x7eda6d…
08-18 16:07:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	1¢	$1	0x9a626c…
08-18 15:42:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x49d3ac…
08-18 14:51:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	431	1¢	$6	0x7cbc82…
08-18 14:51:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$3	0x155e30…
08-18 13:52:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x034fc7…
08-18 13:50:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	1¢	$1	0xb559af…
08-18 13:41:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	1¢	$1	0xbb5557…
08-18 13:41:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x3ee5df…
08-18 13:04:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x097d51…
08-18 12:49:25	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$1	0x5c6305…
08-18 12:49:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	2¢	$1	0x690c7c…
08-18 12:48:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	2¢	$0	0x6c17ac…
08-18 12:48:49	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x915922…
08-18 12:44:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	2¢	$2	0xc7ad19…
08-18 12:39:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x631cd8…
08-18 10:29:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$8	0xbade69…
08-18 10:25:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	1¢	$1	0x5a5d49…
08-18 10:23:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x762f9f…
08-18 10:23:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$1	0xb2823f…
08-18 10:18:25	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$1	0x495bee…
08-18 10:14:15	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$1	0x5f6454…
08-18 10:12:55	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	2¢	$1	0x3fa36f…
08-18 10:07:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xd8b797…
08-18 10:07:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0xd0994f…
08-18 10:02:31	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	135	2¢	$2	0x649846…
08-18 09:25:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0xb0ca2a…
08-18 09:19:16	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xc211fa…
08-18 07:01:15	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	1¢	$1	0x0aae7a…
08-18 06:58:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x096686…
08-18 06:58:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x56e012…