Fickle-Covariate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$663

Unrealized P&L

-$37

Hit rate

6.3%

Resolved

4,954

Trades

10,155

lifetime

Volume

$785.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$78

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 12:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 302 days

Categories

Sports

48% 18% -$210

Other

42% 92% -$324

Crypto

7% 86% -$79

Tech

2% 70% +$18

Politics

1% 72% -$64

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-30	-$29	99¢	$-30	$0	05-21 12:13
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	-100	-$6	18¢	$-18	-$12	06-04 16:39
Brex IPO before 2027?	No	-15	-$14	99¢	$-15	-$1	05-29 10:59
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	-15	-$15	96¢	$-14	+$0	05-21 12:20
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+5	$2	8¢	$0	-$1	05-26 12:54
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	Yes	+0	$23	3¢	$0	-$23	08-06 21:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	97	$34.4K	17,291	17,291	+0	No	-$24	04-11 13:23
will amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 453	77	$27.3K	13,663	13,663	+0	No	-$17	03-23 12:49
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	243	$24.7K	12,388	12,388	+0	open	—	10-07 10:46
will tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	77	$23.6K	11,830	11,830	+0	No	-$15	03-23 12:49
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	227	$23.6K	11,826	11,826	+0	open	—	09-26 13:28
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	233	$23.1K	11,608	11,608	+0	open	—	10-10 11:33
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 889	72	$22.5K	11,412	11,111	+301	No	-$13	03-23 12:49
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga?	74	$21.7K	10,841	10,849	-8	No	-$11	03-04 10:04
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	58	$20.9K	10,441	10,441	+0	No	-$10	02-27 16:27
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga?	92	$19.5K	9,760	9,760	+0	No	-$11	04-15 16:40
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga?	57	$18.8K	9,416	9,426	-10	No	-$9	02-27 16:24
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	61	$18.7K	9,363	9,370	-7	No	-$9	03-04 10:04
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	177	$17.2K	8,658	8,658	+0	open	—	10-08 10:09
will saudi aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	58	$16.7K	8,548	8,231	+317	No	-$10	03-24 12:15
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?	72	$16.6K	8,317	8,317	+0	No	-$8	04-11 13:23
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga?	51	$14.9K	7,447	7,456	-9	No	-$7	02-27 16:24
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	37	$14.8K	7,434	7,434	+0	No	-$7	02-23 12:15
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	49	$14.4K	7,224	7,224	+0	No	-$7	02-27 16:28
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga?	40	$13.7K	6,854	6,862	-8	No	-$7	03-04 10:03
Will Elche win the 2025–26 La Liga?	45	$12.7K	6,338	6,347	-9	No	-$6	02-27 16:33
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	40	$11.7K	5,852	5,852	+0	No	-$8	03-24 11:58
Will Real Sociedad win the 2025–26 La Liga?	45	$11.7K	5,842	5,842	+0	No	-$6	03-04 10:04
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga?	34	$10.5K	5,241	5,241	+0	No	-$5	03-04 10:04
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	30	$10.1K	5,038	5,038	+0	No	-$5	02-18 13:57
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	24	$8.6K	4,285	4,285	+0	No	-$4	02-27 16:28
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga?	26	$7.8K	3,927	3,927	+0	No	-$3	03-08 12:04
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025–26 La Liga?	21	$7.6K	3,780	3,785	-5	No	-$4	02-18 15:36
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	79	$7.4K	3,762	3,762	+0	open	—	10-21 10:56
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	25	$7.0K	3,499	3,499	+0	No	-$3	02-27 16:28
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga?	23	$6.4K	3,182	3,182	+0	No	-$4	03-06 11:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 12:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0xb11898…
10-30 12:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x31d115…
10-30 12:05:01	Erste Bank Open: Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz	Carlos Alcaraz	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x128c6c…
10-30 12:04:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on October 30?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4b1626…
10-30 12:04:04	Will the highest temperature in Denver be 72°F or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x678d7f…
10-30 12:03:49	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on October 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x33eaa4…
10-30 12:03:22	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 30?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x049a10…
10-30 12:03:06	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2d4c93…
10-30 12:02:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3f4731…
10-28 13:57:28	Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-11-01?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x050a4c…
10-28 13:56:47	Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-10-31?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x27f619…
10-28 13:53:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on October 28?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xab878c…
10-28 13:53:16	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on October 28?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbd51f3…
10-28 11:56:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x145f2c…
10-28 11:55:41	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5034f7…
10-28 11:55:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7660b4…
10-28 11:55:05	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 28?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x580c7d…
10-28 11:54:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 28?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7fb984…
10-27 12:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xd51983…
10-27 12:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xab561d…
10-27 12:25:21	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ca0c1…
10-27 12:25:06	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 27?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x431f9d…
10-27 12:24:50	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on October 27?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x2ee407…
10-27 12:24:32	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x97d0d2…
10-27 12:24:15	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 27?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x23af1a…
10-27 12:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa82c8c…
10-27 12:23:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 27?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5df451…
10-26 12:36:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x917aa7…
10-26 12:36:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xf17f74…
10-26 12:34:54	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on October 26?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa80278…
10-26 12:34:29	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2be160…
10-26 12:32:57	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd97eab…
10-26 12:32:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x50e0a4…
10-26 12:32:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 26?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x3773c4…
10-25 11:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x3c088f…
10-25 11:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa52fc5…
10-25 11:56:24	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C or higher on October 25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xeef603…
10-25 11:56:11	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 25?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x5c45d0…
10-25 11:55:56	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 25?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xec9d0b…
10-25 11:55:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xc33c92…
10-25 11:55:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x20f8aa…
10-25 11:54:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xe529af…
10-24 15:42:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x32a0c5…
10-24 15:42:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xbedda3…
10-24 15:35:36	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfb45a4…
10-24 15:35:21	Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 October 19-25?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe5f1ff…
10-24 15:34:54	Will Solana dip to $80 October 19-25?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x4c4976…
10-24 15:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on October 24?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x6f5c8d…
10-24 15:31:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 24?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x69ad7d…
10-24 15:31:23	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa59f72…
10-23 12:30:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xc218bc…
10-23 12:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xeeac59…
10-23 12:28:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd981a3…
10-23 12:27:50	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 23?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x295cdf…
10-23 12:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9b9121…
10-23 12:23:59	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x507428…
10-23 12:23:44	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xaa4153…
10-23 12:23:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x145958…
10-23 12:23:14	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa22ca1…
10-23 12:19:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 23?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfb5088…
10-22 12:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x62cc05…
10-22 12:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd31d29…
10-22 11:39:20	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on October 22?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x68e2b3…
10-22 11:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on October 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xad70a7…
10-22 11:38:47	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on October 22?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x34dfc2…
10-22 11:38:11	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on October 22?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x41dd4c…
10-22 11:37:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8a39f8…
10-22 11:37:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x03a8b8…
10-22 11:37:26	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 22?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa52b49…
10-22 11:37:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 22?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x149c26…
10-21 10:56:03	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	110	100¢	$110	0x4e23b2…
10-21 10:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x1351f1…
10-21 10:55:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xdf7ea6…
10-21 10:53:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x25f166…
10-21 10:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x82e500…
10-21 10:52:47	Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on October 21?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xea30b0…
10-21 10:52:21	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on October 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x21f11f…
10-21 10:52:06	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xce0e69…
10-21 10:51:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 21?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2b8954…
10-21 10:51:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9e6404…
10-21 10:51:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xe952aa…
10-20 11:18:11	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x3be806…
10-20 11:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on October 20?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xef51f9…
10-20 11:06:20	Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on October 20?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x4e45f3…
10-20 11:06:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8cc265…
10-20 11:05:47	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1335fe…
10-20 11:05:33	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x892c9f…
10-20 11:05:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9c907e…
10-20 10:47:41	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x65d977…
10-19 10:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x6670ae…
10-19 10:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb895f7…
10-19 09:59:20	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xf0def8…
10-19 09:59:03	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 19?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x104776…
10-19 09:58:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 19?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x3ad523…
10-19 09:58:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2a6151…
10-19 09:58:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf7ce9b…
10-19 09:57:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on October 19?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x577490…
10-19 09:57:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 19?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xbe998d…
10-18 13:12:18	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x4a4bdc…
10-18 13:11:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xd86e91…