(anonymous) 0x1d7cb3…14ef17 Create alert
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Realized P&L
+$62
Unrealized P&L
+$16
Hit rate
93.8%
Resolved
83
Trades
365
lifetime
Volume
$2.29K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$359
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-03
last 11-06 12:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
79% 94% +$86
Tech
20% 86% -$22
Politics
1% 0% -$2
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
22 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by November 30, 2026? No +25 $20 83¢ $21 +$0 11-01 12:07
Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026? Yes +19 $17 98¢ $19 +$1 11-01 12:08
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +22 $19 82¢ $18 -$1 11-01 12:07
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026? No +20 $18 90¢ $18 $0 11-01 12:07
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +17 $16 100¢ $17 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026? No +17 $16 98¢ $17 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No +16 $15 100¢ $16 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027? Yes +17 $15 92¢ $16 +$1 11-01 12:08
Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes +19 $16 78¢ $15 -$1 11-01 12:08
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +17 $14 88¢ $15 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027? Yes +16 $13 90¢ $14 +$1 11-01 12:08
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31? No +14 $12 98¢ $14 +$2 11-01 12:08
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026? No +14 $13 97¢ $14 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +16 $13 81¢ $13 -$1 11-01 12:08
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? No +13 $11 96¢ $12 +$1 10-23 12:07
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +13 $10 87¢ $11 +$1 10-23 12:08
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.50 on December 31, 2026? No +12 $10 91¢ $11 +$0 11-01 12:08
Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31? No +10 $9 92¢ $10 +$1 11-01 12:08
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +10 $8 92¢ $10 +$1 10-23 12:08
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $9 88¢ $9 +$0 10-23 12:08
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $8 98¢ $9 +$1 11-01 12:09
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $7 97¢ $8 +$1 10-23 12:08
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +9 $8 90¢ $8 +$0 10-23 12:08
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027? No +8 $7 91¢ $8 +$1 11-01 12:09
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +8 $7 90¢ $7 +$0 10-23 12:08
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between December 21 and December 27, 2026? No +7 $6 99¢ $7 +$1 10-23 12:08
Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 65% or higher? Yes +7 $6 92¢ $6 +$0 11-01 12:09
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No +7 $6 94¢ $6 +$0 10-23 12:08
Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for Saudi Arabia by December 31? No +8 $7 78¢ $6 $0 10-23 12:08
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? No +7 $6 82¢ $6 $0 11-01 12:09