Pertinent-Temptation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$418

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

82.1%

Resolved

182

Trades

658

lifetime

Volume

$7.84K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 11-01 07:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Other

72% 75% +$202

Politics

16% 57% -$434

Sports

4% 0% -$132

Crypto

4% 67% -$5

Tech

4% 43% -$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-4	-$4	98¢	$-4	$0	08-22 21:09
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-3	-$3	99¢	$-3	+$1	08-20 21:48
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	-1	-$1	98¢	$-1	$0	11-01 00:23
US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	-1	-$2	98¢	$-1	+$0	11-01 01:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	38	$790	426	426	+0	No	+$14	05-28 20:59
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	23	$662	391	391	+0	Yes	+$44	05-07 08:45
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	23	$638	328	338	-10	No	+$12	06-29 20:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	9	$337	277	277	+0	open	—	11-01 00:19
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on april 3	8	$314	163	163	+0	Yes	+$4	04-05 16:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	10	$270	151	151	+0	No	+$31	07-05 00:25
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	5	$244	131	131	+0	No	+$7	04-13 04:45
will the united states win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	14	$237	193	193	+0	Yes	-$56	02-22 01:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	11	$232	137	122	+15	No	+$21	04-27 09:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$228	142	142	+0	No	+$53	07-22 18:25
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	6	$182	111	77	+34	No	+$2	07-30 20:41
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	11	$161	90	90	+0	Yes	+$17	04-03 18:46
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	7	$157	104	77	+27	No	+$18	04-29 05:11
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$140	73	73	+0	No	+$5	03-31 20:37
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	12	$138	239	0	+239	Yes	-$138	09-09 06:42
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?	19	$137	210	62	+148	Yes	+$59	05-28 05:15
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	4	$132	142	142	+0	open	—	11-01 00:19
another us bank failure by march 31	12	$130	75	75	+0	No	+$14	03-31 20:11
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	6	$129	75	75	+0	open	—	11-01 00:19
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	4	$114	65	65	+0	No	+$11	06-29 03:24
meta above 600 on january 30 2026	2	$104	54	54	+0	Yes	+$4	01-30 21:57
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	9	$103	160	0	+160	Yes	-$103	06-08 22:36
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	4	$96	111	0	+111	No	-$96	05-19 21:39
will italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$90	131	130	+0	No	-$76	02-20 17:38
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	5	$71	42	42	+0	open	—	11-01 00:20
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$59	58	10	+49	No	+$8	08-10 19:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	5	$55	29	29	+0	No	+$3	05-12 18:15
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	01-30 22:06
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	3	$52	58	58	+0	open	—	11-01 07:15
another us bank failure by february 28	4	$51	29	29	+0	No	+$1	02-11 21:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 07:22:48	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	56¢	$14	0x553cdb…
11-01 07:21:54	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xb1974e…
11-01 07:15:06	Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	SELL	58	27¢	$16	0xf4ad3d…
11-01 01:10:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xd2ae1d…
11-01 01:09:57	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	No	SELL	18	35¢	$6	0x6d172e…
11-01 01:09:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	SELL	7	93¢	$6	0x950ffe…
11-01 01:09:00	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x446746…
11-01 01:08:52	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	SELL	11	17¢	$2	0x0dfd36…
11-01 01:07:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x26ef9c…
11-01 01:07:03	US takes Panama Canal before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xc5f6ef…
11-01 01:06:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0x11fe2d…
11-01 01:06:30	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	3	90¢	$3	0x3edb8b…
11-01 01:06:06	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	71¢	$8	0xd35e72…
11-01 00:31:03	Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0xa2c73a…
11-01 00:30:54	Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	86¢	$9	0x53362d…
11-01 00:30:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x029437…
11-01 00:29:48	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$4	0xe2076f…
11-01 00:29:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	36¢	$9	0x850890…
11-01 00:29:15	Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + ACT + NZF?	No	SELL	7	38¢	$3	0x9fdce7…
11-01 00:23:54	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x91aa60…
11-01 00:23:39	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x3dfd25…
11-01 00:20:30	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	58¢	$22	0xf06a46…
11-01 00:20:21	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x840114…
11-01 00:20:16	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	34	88¢	$30	0xc0dacd…
11-01 00:20:12	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	74¢	$2	0x53c477…
11-01 00:19:51	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	56	90¢	$51	0x5755f2…
11-01 00:19:40	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	142	18¢	$25	0xd623ec…
11-01 00:19:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	194	88¢	$171	0x6e3a70…
10-27 18:59:44	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x013ce8…
10-27 17:13:23	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0x331dfe…
10-25 18:50:26	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xda138c…
10-25 09:09:54	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6bb7d1…
10-25 09:09:33	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x67306a…
10-25 09:09:00	Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xde6e69…
10-25 09:05:48	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x545e11…
10-25 09:04:59	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x38aa0c…
10-25 07:14:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	64¢	$31	0x84a772…
10-22 17:56:11	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xfe1fc5…
10-22 17:55:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x68a9e3…
10-22 17:54:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xcce9a0…
10-21 18:58:21	Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xbf99eb…
10-21 17:56:12	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x37ee34…
10-21 17:41:32	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x61c83b…
10-21 17:40:39	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x198e64…
10-21 17:14:48	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xfcc584…
10-21 01:13:53	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x04235b…
10-21 01:13:02	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x84f95e…
10-20 22:24:50	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x710a09…
10-20 22:21:56	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5f8233…
10-19 09:48:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0x55980d…
10-19 09:48:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x34eb83…
10-19 09:41:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$6	0x46b7b5…
10-16 09:33:51	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	76¢	$72	0x2fdeb9…
10-16 09:33:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	83	88¢	$73	0x729f45…
10-16 09:00:16	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	66¢	$11	0x370976…
10-16 08:59:43	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x371d51…
10-16 08:58:07	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x88c7fc…
10-09 09:48:15	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	70¢	$26	0x95bdd1…
10-08 21:37:00	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xa43d77…
10-08 21:35:27	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x61ab8b…
10-08 02:16:35	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	64¢	$36	0x3362d0…
10-03 20:35:32	Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x2a64ed…
09-30 18:28:03	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0xf2b240…
09-23 23:28:28	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x1b7a22…
09-16 21:02:30	Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x48031b…
09-15 09:01:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	87¢	$3	0x4251b6…
09-09 17:48:12	Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	No	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xacfd0a…
09-09 17:46:19	Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x71a381…
09-09 17:43:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0xb807c1…
09-09 17:41:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x011b1a…
09-09 17:40:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xa6c3fd…
09-09 06:42:42	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x7ed0a5…
09-01 18:05:16	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2,320	0¢	$2	0x64cef7…
09-01 18:04:39	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x98ef63…
09-01 08:18:37	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x0bddc3…
09-01 08:15:33	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xb65f65…
09-01 08:15:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x7f5c23…
09-01 08:15:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	37¢	$4	0x4b23a2…
09-01 08:14:24	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	74	23¢	$17	0x6a7a2e…
09-01 08:13:19	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd4dbb2…
09-01 08:13:03	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0x7fa2cd…
09-01 08:12:58	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x30b499…
08-31 17:12:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x82ff17…
08-31 17:11:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x03a4ac…
08-31 17:10:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xfc8ca4…
08-31 17:08:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x3187eb…
08-31 17:08:15	next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	No	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0x71b906…
08-31 17:07:22	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x4a6ec2…
08-31 17:06:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x4a5eac…
08-31 17:06:31	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x30ec6f…
08-31 17:05:48	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xe04770…
08-22 21:10:04	next mythos class model released by september 15 2026 112	No	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xe81979…
08-22 21:09:19	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xd5ce40…
08-21 01:59:55	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0x3a3bb3…
08-20 21:48:45	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	21	97¢	$21	0xe7a97b…
08-10 19:25:34	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x55997e…
08-10 19:25:16	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$3	0xdc335d…
08-10 19:23:36	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xc148df…
08-10 19:22:12	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0x71dc0c…
08-09 19:59:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x2d04cc…