Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

49.8%

Resolved

Trades

192

lifetime

Volume

$2.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$16

1 position

First seen

2026-01-14

last 06-03 08:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

62% 50% +$1

Politics

20% 100% +$12

Crypto

15% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-39

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+19	$15	84¢	$16	+$1	06-03 08:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$101	58	58	+0	open	—	01-31 10:51
will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	2	$94	55	55	+0	open	—	01-21 19:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$91	53	53	+0	open	—	04-23 15:16
gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	2	$88	68	68	+0	open	—	01-28 08:27
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	2	$72	42	42	+0	open	—	02-20 16:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$63	45	45	+0	open	—	02-28 07:08
will trump admin release any more epstein related files by january 31 853	2	$58	50	50	+0	open	—	01-25 07:07
will gold gc hit low 4600 by end of february 292 259 212 256 398 758 656 625 549 536	2	$52	38	38	+0	open	—	02-12 11:31
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	4	$52	29	29	+0	open	—	03-28 19:28
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	2	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	03-09 07:27
trump x greenland deal signed by march 31	2	$43	28	28	+0	open	—	01-27 16:00
will the price of bitcoin be less than 80000 on february 3	1	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	02-03 11:51
ucl ata1 bay1 2026 03 10 bay1	2	$40	25	25	+0	open	—	03-10 21:22
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	3	$39	26	26	+0	open	—	01-25 19:50
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$39	127	0	+127	No	$-39	04-08 15:46
will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 26	2	$39	29	29	+0	open	—	01-26 16:59
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$35	98	74	+25	open	—	04-11 02:32
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	2	$35	26	10	+16	open	—	01-27 15:56
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	2	$34	22	22	+0	open	—	01-15 10:29
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	3	$32	68	68	+0	Yes	+$12	03-02 18:54
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	4	$31	168	79	+88	open	—	03-09 07:31
bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	1	$30	43	0	+43	open	—	04-13 17:10
bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	1	$30	43	0	+43	open	—	04-11 10:21
highest temperature in munich on april 9 2026 16corhigher	2	$28	71	68	+3	open	—	04-08 18:57
will the price of bitcoin be between 88000 90000 on january 23	2	$26	18	18	+0	open	—	01-23 15:33
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$25	17	17	+0	open	—	04-12 18:01
bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	2	$24	52	0	+52	open	—	03-14 16:05
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	03-09 07:28
uel cel4 scf 2026 04 16 scf	2	$23	22	21	+1	open	—	04-16 17:32
ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	03-18 21:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 08:48:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xe07f04…
06-03 08:46:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0xc1b996…
05-16 11:05:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x7dc11b…
05-01 07:25:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa86907…
05-01 07:25:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x181a55…
04-23 15:16:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	53	97¢	$51	0xa1032d…
04-22 18:18:30	dfb lev bay 2026 04 22 bay	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x46e6b5…
04-22 05:27:28	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x7b6268…
04-21 05:12:32	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0xc5f0da…
04-20 10:07:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0xa26c9f…
04-20 10:06:02	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xdcd52e…
04-16 17:32:06	uel cel4 scf 2026 04 16 scf	Yes	SELL	21	86¢	$18	0x315a65…
04-16 16:37:16	uel cel4 scf 2026 04 16 scf	Yes	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xd053a2…
04-14 15:32:17	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 fcb1	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xacac46…
04-14 15:31:59	ucl liv1 psg1 2026 04 14 liv1	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xb3075d…
04-13 17:10:59	bun bay stu 2026 04 19 bay	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x503c2b…
04-13 08:39:17	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x775f37…
04-13 08:33:57	Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc2120e…
04-13 08:19:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x17afe1…
04-13 08:18:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x3c97cb…
04-12 18:01:51	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	17	87¢	$15	0xa4a05a…
04-11 10:21:15	bun pau bay 2026 04 11 bay	Yes	BUY	43	70¢	$30	0x2121ff…
04-11 02:32:07	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0xd91c42…
04-09 20:22:25	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	49	19¢	$9	0x5fffc5…
04-09 19:45:55	uel scf cel4 2026 04 09 scf	Yes	SELL	7	91¢	$6	0x765d30…
04-09 14:50:13	uel scf cel4 2026 04 09 scf	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x21655a…
04-08 18:57:59	highest temperature in munich on april 9 2026 16corhigher	Yes	SELL	68	20¢	$13	0xe713e7…
04-08 18:51:59	highest temperature in munich on april 9 2026 16corhigher	Yes	BUY	71	21¢	$15	0x4ffe00…
04-08 18:46:27	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 bay1	Yes	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x00d934…
04-08 18:42:21	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x625d7f…
04-08 18:41:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3d1c6b…
04-08 15:51:15	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x6d97b8…
04-08 15:47:09	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 fcb1	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xd8af5e…
04-08 15:46:17	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	127	31¢	$39	0xc1288a…
04-07 15:24:57	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 liv1	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xb2721d…
04-07 15:23:27	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x3c3eae…
04-07 15:22:47	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xd3ef19…
03-30 10:07:24	ucl rma1 bay1 2026 04 07 bay1	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0fa434…
03-30 10:01:14	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0x3d5b64…
03-28 19:28:30	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	SELL	22	98¢	$21	0xb559b5…
03-25 18:36:07	bun fre bay 2026 04 04 bay	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x63b62f…
03-25 18:33:05	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x0641e8…
03-25 18:26:35	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x928359…
03-25 18:25:13	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x94f956…
03-22 20:31:49	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0xead329…
03-21 17:50:27	bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa0a856…
03-20 11:29:33	will the us invade iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0xde4c64…
03-20 08:31:13	bun bay uni 2026 03 21 bay	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb7f63f…
03-19 13:29:47	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0x1a5d97…
03-18 21:21:11	ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x25c7b3…
03-18 19:53:49	ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	Yes	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x8386b3…
03-18 10:01:05	bitcoin up or down on march 18 2026	Up	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0x53dce1…
03-16 22:03:23	will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x7c4fac…
03-16 16:11:25	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x93645a…
03-16 16:08:23	will rachida dati win the paris mayor election	Yes	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x6bb129…
03-14 16:05:13	bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x19afd8…
03-13 09:53:47	crude oil all time high by march 31	Yes	BUY	54	18¢	$10	0xf5fac5…
03-13 09:52:35	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x805061…
03-13 09:51:53	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xcd9d71…
03-13 09:51:23	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by march 13 221 752 344	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xe5885e…
03-13 09:42:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 13	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xe50ff0…
03-12 21:57:01	uel stu3 por1 2026 03 12 por1	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xcca423…
03-11 20:55:07	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	Yes	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0xf9c60e…
03-11 20:54:43	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 psg1	Yes	SELL	9	71¢	$6	0x30ec91…
03-11 14:08:11	bun ein hei 2026 03 14 ein	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xb4b06f…
03-11 14:06:13	ucl bay1 ata1 2026 03 18 bay1	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x75fbdd…
03-11 14:05:31	uel stu3 por1 2026 03 12 por1	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x383805…
03-11 14:03:17	ucl fcb1 new 2026 03 18 fcb1	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd7cbc9…
03-11 14:02:39	bun b04 bay 2026 03 14 bay	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x1777c8…
03-11 13:59:23	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 psg1	Yes	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0x591dc1…
03-10 21:22:53	ucl ata1 bay1 2026 03 10 bay1	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xdaa60d…
03-09 20:06:57	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xd1a422…
03-09 19:46:11	ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 rma1	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xf72d0c…
03-09 07:31:11	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	88	2¢	$2	0x3008de…
03-09 07:28:21	will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0x15f159…
03-09 07:27:29	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	Yes	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x444d9c…
03-08 07:38:55	will sinners win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	17	22¢	$4	0x310d87…
03-07 22:22:47	bun koe dor 2026 03 07 dor	Yes	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x5d8ec2…
03-07 10:33:03	ucl ata1 bay1 2026 03 10 bay1	Yes	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0x5e74d7…
03-07 10:31:51	will anthropic have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xdd9824…
03-07 10:28:45	will the ecb announce no change at the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x3335b4…
03-07 10:27:37	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 8	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x624028…
03-07 10:26:15	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x78acf2…
03-07 10:25:35	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x51f5cb…
03-07 10:24:03	bun koe dor 2026 03 07 dor	Yes	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x8af91a…
03-07 10:19:31	bun pau ein 2026 03 08 ein	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x4b556f…
03-06 21:57:13	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x167a2a…
03-05 18:52:23	will trumps approval rating be less than 41pt0 on march 6 2026	Yes	BUY	66	5¢	$3	0x2e5873…
03-05 18:46:09	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on march 6	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xb232b6…
03-05 18:44:23	bun bay moe 2026 03 06 bay	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x053641…
03-04 15:37:15	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on march 4	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x4ce3b3…
03-04 15:35:51	bitcoin above 72k on march 4	No	BUY	13	24¢	$3	0xa46ba6…
03-03 06:44:05	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	No	SELL	12	93¢	$12	0x7a4086…
03-03 06:43:27	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 3	Yes	SELL	14	39¢	$5	0x1ce271…
03-02 18:54:03	Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	SELL	34	31¢	$11	0x896abc…
03-02 17:20:39	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on march 3	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xae3fed…
03-02 17:17:47	spx up or down on march 2 2026	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xcb2c22…
03-02 06:22:53	trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 7th	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x6c26e2…
03-02 06:18:21	will afd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x8a8d4f…
03-02 06:18:07	will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x20e8ba…