Tempting-Parable — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$29

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

436

lifetime

Volume

$4.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$149

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 07-03 13:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$3

Politics

27% — —

Other

21% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+119	$89	100¢	$119	+$30	06-25 13:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+25	$15	62¢	$15	+$0	06-17 13:24
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+32	$15	46¢	$15	$-0	06-17 13:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	4	$393	266	266	+0	open	—	06-02 12:27
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	2	$378	840	0	+840	open	—	05-15 20:48
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	7	$290	449	0	+449	open	—	05-30 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?	1	$285	712	0	+712	open	—	05-14 23:46
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 14?	3	$260	650	0	+650	open	—	05-14 12:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$200	250	0	+250	open	—	06-11 09:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$194	307	0	+307	open	—	06-11 09:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	5	$127	353	2	+351	open	—	05-19 13:04
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	5	$124	240	121	+119	open	—	06-26 09:11
Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	6	$114	458	0	+458	open	—	05-30 08:32
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	2	$106	169	0	+169	open	—	05-19 12:33
us iran nuclear deal by july 31	2	$100	184	0	+184	open	—	06-06 08:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$100	128	0	+128	open	—	05-21 12:48
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$97	81	81	+0	open	—	06-25 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	7	$88	189	0	+189	open	—	05-29 15:05
will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	3	$85	104	0	+104	open	—	06-17 13:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$76	94	0	+94	open	—	05-21 12:42
Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	8	$74	190	0	+190	open	—	05-29 15:04
Ethereum Up or Down on May 27?	3	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	05-27 09:07
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	1	$50	62	0	+62	open	—	06-09 11:58
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	1	$50	62	0	+62	open	—	06-01 11:32
Ethereum Up or Down on May 26?	3	$50	69	34	+35	open	—	05-26 11:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$45	75	0	+75	open	—	06-19 13:40
will bitcoin reach 66k june 8 14 2026	1	$42	50	0	+50	open	—	06-13 15:16
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	3	$36	41	0	+41	open	—	05-29 14:51
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	3	$35	216	216	+0	open	—	06-02 12:28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$30	47	0	+47	open	—	06-18 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10PM ET	3	$22	50	0	+50	open	—	05-16 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	2	$22	50	0	+50	open	—	05-16 11:00
will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	2	$20	33	0	+33	open	—	06-16 10:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-03 13:38:25	mlb cws cle 2026 07 03	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x8df133…
07-03 13:15:28	atp sinner brooksb 2026 07 03 set totals 3pt5	Over 3.5	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xf2ed07…
07-02 11:17:58	atp berrett fils 2026 07 02 match total 38pt5	Over	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xb3f590…
06-27 05:40:34	bitcoin up or down on june 27 2026	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xf4a198…
06-26 14:58:28	nvda up or down on june 26 2026	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x6a1eb8…
06-26 14:58:26	spx up or down on june 26 2026	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xa37786…
06-26 09:11:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	121	12¢	$15	0xb2a081…
06-26 09:05:52	will bitcoin reach 62k on june 26	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0xeae917…
06-25 13:39:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	81	46¢	$37	0x8fec40…
06-25 13:38:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	57	18¢	$10	0x286b58…
06-25 13:35:44	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x00fc24…
06-25 13:32:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x31e428…
06-25 13:31:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	64	16¢	$10	0xc5998d…
06-24 12:47:47	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	23	79¢	$18	0x4cd77d…
06-19 13:40:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x845747…
06-19 13:38:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x509920…
06-19 08:35:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	55	73¢	$40	0xb16089…
06-19 08:27:05	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0x69fe6a…
06-18 11:13:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0x547da4…
06-17 13:51:01	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xf12a6b…
06-17 13:25:05	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	32	47¢	$15	0x398bc9…
06-17 13:24:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	61¢	$15	0xf51351…
06-17 13:21:32	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xbb8927…
06-17 13:09:34	btc updown 5m 1781701500	Down	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xd31537…
06-17 13:07:44	btc updown 5m 1781701500	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xe308ac…
06-16 10:55:55	will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xd88172…
06-16 10:48:33	will bitcoin reach 68k on june 16	No	BUY	21	88¢	$18	0x99659c…
06-16 10:48:16	will bitcoin reach 68k june 15 21 2026	Yes	BUY	13	60¢	$8	0x144c8c…
06-15 11:57:57	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x7359f5…
06-15 11:56:45	bitcoin above 66k on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x087304…
06-15 11:56:27	bitcoin above 66k on june 19 2026	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x6f7771…
06-15 11:42:42	btc updown 15m 1781523000	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xb33f71…
06-15 11:37:49	btc updown 15m 1781523000	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x08b1e1…
06-15 11:21:48	bitcoin above 66k on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x73f468…
06-14 08:55:34	btc updown 15m 1781426700	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2054d3…
06-14 08:38:22	btc updown 15m 1781425800	Down	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0x266de5…
06-14 08:35:21	ethereum up or down on june 14 2026	Down	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x6d8747…
06-13 15:16:34	will bitcoin reach 66k june 8 14 2026	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x564343…
06-13 15:09:15	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x26338a…
06-11 09:14:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0xbca2f7…
06-11 09:14:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x1a0013…
06-10 09:33:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0x5f0c3c…
06-09 11:58:49	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xb20cee…
06-08 11:00:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x19f33d…
06-08 10:48:28	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	77	81¢	$62	0x9e773a…
06-07 05:04:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x978018…
06-06 08:55:07	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x1b10db…
06-06 02:18:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x64bdb3…
06-02 12:28:00	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	216	0¢	$0	0xeb0570…
06-02 12:27:53	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	266	91¢	$244	0x4e25dd…
06-01 11:37:41	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	125	36¢	$45	0xdc2597…
06-01 11:37:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	No	BUY	151	53¢	$80	0x329aa5…
06-01 11:33:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?	Yes	BUY	61	8¢	$5	0xd3c4d5…
06-01 11:32:38	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0xfd92e8…
06-01 09:24:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	14¢	$11	0x3575f6…
06-01 09:24:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0xc90bee…
05-31 12:30:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xc1dcaf…
05-31 12:30:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x11788b…
05-30 08:32:59	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	27	13¢	$3	0xfbca74…
05-30 08:32:59	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x656296…
05-30 02:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	66	61¢	$40	0xd28efb…
05-30 02:35:02	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	67	27¢	$18	0x63e4d9…
05-30 02:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	92	65¢	$60	0xb802cc…
05-30 02:33:04	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	96	25¢	$24	0x05071a…
05-30 02:26:10	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0xef5d52…
05-30 02:26:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	106	68¢	$72	0x1c53d4…
05-30 02:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x4c69ae…
05-30 02:16:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xee2349…
05-30 02:16:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	23	52¢	$12	0xaefca1…
05-30 02:11:01	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x8e3f89…
05-30 02:06:51	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xdd28fd…
05-30 02:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	69	62¢	$43	0xe962bd…
05-30 02:02:18	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30?	Down	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x54ee5b…
05-30 02:02:18	Ethereum Up or Down on May 30?	Up	BUY	86	28¢	$24	0x344305…
05-29 15:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xf3edcc…
05-29 15:04:46	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x831f49…
05-29 14:56:31	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x8dd514…
05-29 14:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x9a2da5…
05-29 14:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x827817…
05-29 14:53:46	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x67fc68…
05-29 14:51:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x11502d…
05-29 14:50:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xbdc9eb…
05-29 14:45:54	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0x72d41c…
05-29 14:44:42	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x73de63…
05-29 14:44:42	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	52	25¢	$13	0x451528…
05-29 14:41:28	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	33	52¢	$17	0x9679f8…
05-29 14:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xff56c8…
05-29 14:39:29	Ethereum Up or Down on May 29?	Down	BUY	30	54¢	$16	0xf0a5dd…
05-29 14:39:29	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29?	Up	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x98a798…
05-29 14:34:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	24	8¢	$2	0x1ab4d2…
05-29 14:33:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x365bb8…
05-29 14:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	6¢	$2	0x8c05da…
05-29 13:47:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0x143c3c…
05-29 13:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	7	37¢	$2	0x0b4d67…
05-29 13:45:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x11700b…
05-29 13:44:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd8be6b…
05-29 13:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa41040…
05-29 13:42:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x927d62…
05-29 13:40:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	4	58¢	$2	0x8b1ff0…
05-28 21:27:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xb289d8…