Jumbo-Experimentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$598

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

79.8%

Resolved

Trades

250

lifetime

Volume

$45.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$181

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-07 07:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

47% 100% +$5

Politics

34% 0% $-602

Crypto

12% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$3.3K	1,993	1,316	+678	open	—	03-11 19:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	13	$3.2K	2,835	402	+2,433	open	—	03-04 18:25
cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	3	$3.0K	3,500	3,500	+0	open	—	03-19 21:57
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$2.6K	1,630	929	+701	open	—	04-29 17:58
gpt 5pt3 released by march 15 2026 733	1	$2.4K	2,436	0	+2,436	open	—	03-04 19:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	4	$2.4K	2,411	5	+2,406	open	—	02-25 11:20
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$2.1K	2,100	0	+2,100	Yes	+$4	05-03 08:09
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$2.0K	2,011	0	+2,011	open	—	03-14 09:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	3	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-17 10:38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$2.0K	1,010	1,010	+0	open	—	04-22 17:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	9	$1.9K	1,913	0	+1,913	open	—	03-19 22:16
cs2 mouz vit 2026 02 16	3	$1.7K	2,440	0	+2,440	open	—	02-16 13:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$1.6K	1,468	120	+1,348	open	—	04-29 18:44
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$1.4K	726	726	+0	open	—	04-28 19:05
grok 4pt20 released by march 31 147	3	$1.4K	699	699	+0	open	—	02-17 17:11
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	05-29 20:58
grok 4pt20 released by april 20 988 375 998 452	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	02-17 14:26
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$987	989	0	+989	open	—	03-11 19:20
will georgia record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 955	2	$699	350	350	+0	open	—	02-19 22:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	9	$630	643	14	+629	Yes	$-602	04-30 06:03
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	2	$482	486	0	+486	open	—	03-28 20:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$482	242	242	+0	open	—	04-29 18:29
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	1	$400	400	0	+400	Yes	+$0	05-12 16:40
will hyperliquid dip to 16 in february 971	3	$398	200	200	+0	open	—	02-27 10:40
us forces seize another venezuela linked oil ship by january 9 2026 785	2	$389	390	0	+390	open	—	01-07 14:23
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	5	$371	11	360	-349	open	—	02-26 13:43
will axiom be accused of insider trading	5	$367	377	58	+319	open	—	02-26 13:43
will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	4	$332	166	166	+0	open	—	01-31 13:13
over 40m committed to the ranger public sale 819 688	2	$331	183	183	+0	open	—	01-10 14:50
will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$325	325	0	+325	open	—	03-11 19:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 07:16:28	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0x6ad690…
05-29 20:58:23	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,199	0x41bcde…
05-19 16:29:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1da542…
05-19 16:22:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xd13b15…
05-12 16:40:33	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x8b2858…
05-03 08:09:16	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,100	100¢	$2,096	0xa7664b…
05-03 07:42:06	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xdd1ceb…
04-30 06:03:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xcb142f…
04-29 18:44:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x2cda47…
04-29 18:31:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	93¢	$37	0xd9826d…
04-29 18:29:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	242	100¢	$242	0x9aa44e…
04-29 18:01:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7dc1fa…
04-29 17:59:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x86fe7f…
04-29 17:58:04	Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	701	100¢	$700	0xc18a98…
04-29 17:51:48	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	SELL	10	93¢	$9	0x5166b5…
04-29 17:48:14	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x1eda7c…
04-29 17:44:10	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x9e5447…
04-29 17:43:14	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xb954cd…
04-29 17:42:02	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A	Vitality	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x5f836e…
04-28 19:35:46	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5	Over	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x75753d…
04-28 19:30:24	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xa90832…
04-28 19:26:32	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xecbe58…
04-28 19:05:58	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	726	100¢	$724	0x1c120c…
04-27 16:35:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	511	100¢	$510	0x402aec…
04-27 16:35:04	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	SELL	28	75¢	$21	0xd5419f…
04-27 16:23:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	115	96¢	$111	0x828148…
04-27 08:37:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xff4125…
04-27 07:23:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x4039d0…
04-27 06:34:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$13	0xa84b8e…
04-27 06:33:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x57997a…
04-27 06:33:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	406	96¢	$390	0x03f8a4…
04-27 03:54:50	Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	929	100¢	$927	0x72b755…
04-26 08:01:46	megaeth fdv above 3b one day after launch	No	SELL	55	93¢	$51	0x307281…
04-25 10:43:28	megaeth fdv above 2pt5b one day after launch	No	SELL	48	88¢	$43	0x462c23…
04-24 18:47:42	Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	929	100¢	$927	0x754458…
04-24 06:19:00	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x506e8a…
04-23 16:59:42	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xfca854…
04-23 16:59:32	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0x281e99…
04-23 16:56:26	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x57250f…
04-23 16:44:20	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	No	SELL	35	71¢	$25	0xb7174a…
04-23 15:41:20	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	No	SELL	7	71¢	$5	0x29b8a8…
04-23 15:26:50	Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0xe65419…
04-23 15:26:40	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x971d73…
04-23 15:26:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	SELL	127	100¢	$127	0x0a205d…
04-23 15:25:46	Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xda406f…
04-23 14:45:56	megaeth fdv above 3b one day after launch	No	BUY	55	90¢	$50	0xd2af9a…
04-23 14:45:42	megaeth fdv above 2pt5b one day after launch	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x4b0509…
04-23 14:45:30	megaeth fdv above 2pt5b one day after launch	No	BUY	29	78¢	$23	0x33c465…
04-23 14:45:16	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	No	BUY	13	66¢	$9	0x5b6149…
04-23 14:44:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	110	99¢	$109	0x91e0a6…
04-23 11:52:22	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	726	100¢	$723	0x22a360…
04-23 09:06:56	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xd304fd…
04-23 07:10:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x6737ad…
04-23 07:06:24	megaeth fdv above 2b one day after launch	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x26d6f6…
04-23 06:26:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	242	99¢	$240	0x9d8000…
04-22 17:22:56	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	1,010	99¢	$996	0x3b3919…
04-22 15:29:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0x617333…
04-22 15:28:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4fb08e…
04-20 18:20:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa519be…
04-20 18:20:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xe9d1c7…
04-20 18:20:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x53b295…
04-17 10:39:58	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1,010	99¢	$997	0x9a1e54…
04-17 10:38:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	510	100¢	$508	0x8994bf…
04-17 10:38:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	SELL	490	100¢	$489	0xc20b00…
04-16 11:45:26	Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0xf556a8…
04-15 11:17:02	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	6	75¢	$5	0xe5f3c9…
04-14 19:41:18	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x1cd787…
04-06 00:11:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$996	0x42ea03…
04-05 07:01:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x8bde2f…
04-05 06:55:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	743	99¢	$733	0x9e3803…
04-05 06:55:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x69cda9…
04-04 18:47:21	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2b013a…
03-28 20:24:02	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	BUY	86	100¢	$86	0x6c8b58…
03-24 16:15:45	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0d1ce5…
03-19 22:38:31	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x812508…
03-19 22:16:55	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,226	99¢	$1,214	0x01c5a1…
03-19 22:09:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xed8f85…
03-19 22:08:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x9b6460…
03-19 22:03:31	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	110	99¢	$109	0x3e6a98…
03-19 22:02:57	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	BUY	400	99¢	$396	0xc80342…
03-19 21:59:19	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	49	99¢	$48	0x7b7383…
03-19 21:57:41	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	VCU Rams	SELL	3,500	43¢	$1,505	0xff84f3…
03-19 21:55:57	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	VCU Rams	BUY	2,756	44¢	$1,213	0xec831d…
03-19 21:55:53	cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	VCU Rams	BUY	744	44¢	$327	0xd25f27…
03-14 09:13:41	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,011	100¢	$2,003	0x2331cc…
03-14 09:09:43	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x8f7f86…
03-11 19:20:41	will cdu win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	Yes	BUY	325	100¢	$325	0xb7622c…
03-11 19:20:31	will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	BUY	989	100¢	$987	0xaecb9a…
03-11 19:20:19	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,316	100¢	$1,312	0x830a7f…
03-10 19:43:25	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,993	99¢	$1,981	0x0ca79a…
03-10 18:23:19	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x35f1a4…
03-10 18:21:39	will bitcoin dip to 40k in march 2026	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xa42a87…
03-10 18:21:19	will bitcoin dip to 35k in march 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$198	0xded00b…
03-10 18:21:09	will bitcoin dip to 30k in march 2026	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0x7d5784…
03-04 19:35:27	gpt 5pt3 released by march 15 2026 733	Yes	BUY	2,436	100¢	$2,433	0xa14bde…
03-04 18:25:13	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	2,433	100¢	$2,431	0x62144d…
02-27 10:41:11	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	195	97¢	$190	0xaad9c4…
02-27 10:40:27	will hyperliquid dip to 16 in february 971	No	SELL	190	100¢	$190	0xedae57…
02-26 21:16:48	will hyperliquid reach 56 in february	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x3b34bd…
02-26 21:16:22	will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	No	SELL	26	91¢	$24	0x5bc0ef…