Jumbo-Experimentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$823

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

121

Trades

347

lifetime

Volume

$55.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$159

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-22 18:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

48% 64% -$89

Politics

30% 75% -$539

Crypto

11% 86% +$33

Tech

8% 100% +$77

Sports

2% 80% -$304

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-22).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	2	$3.3K	1,993	1,316	+678	Yes	+$8	03-11 19:20
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	13	$3.2K	2,835	402	+2,433	Yes	-$7	03-04 18:25
cbb vcu ncar 2026 03 19	3	$3.0K	3,500	3,500	+0	VCU Rams	-$35	03-19 21:57
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?	3	$2.6K	1,630	929	+701	Yes	+$1	04-29 17:58
gpt 5pt3 released by march 15 2026 733	1	$2.4K	2,436	0	+2,436	Yes	+$2	03-04 19:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	4	$2.4K	2,411	5	+2,406	No	+$10	02-25 11:20
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	1	$2.1K	2,100	0	+2,100	Yes	+$4	05-03 08:09
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	3	$2.1K	1,050	1,050	+0	No	+$3	06-22 18:29
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$2.0K	2,011	0	+2,011	Yes	+$8	03-14 09:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	3	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$1	04-17 10:38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$2.0K	1,010	1,010	+0	Yes	-$1	04-22 17:22
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	9	$1.9K	1,913	0	+1,913	No	+$26	03-19 22:16
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	22	$1.8K	1,016	916	+100	No	-$34	06-16 09:59
cs2 mouz vit 2026 02 16	3	$1.7K	2,440	0	+2,440	Vitality	+$781	02-16 13:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	7	$1.6K	1,468	120	+1,348	No	+$12	04-29 18:44
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$1.4K	726	726	+0	No	+$1	04-28 19:05
grok 4pt20 released by march 31 147	3	$1.4K	699	699	+0	Yes	+$1	02-17 17:11
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	No	+$1	05-29 20:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$1.0K	1,011	10	+1,001	Yes	-$6	06-17 18:00
grok 4pt20 released by april 20 988 375 998 452	1	$999	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$1	02-17 14:26
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$987	989	0	+989	No	+$2	03-11 19:20
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	5	$967	1,028	0	+1,028	Yes	+$61	05-19 17:02
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	9	$863	602	300	+302	Yes	+$13	06-18 18:38
will georgia record a medal at the 2026 winter olympics 955	2	$699	350	350	+0	Yes	+$0	02-19 22:56
will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	4	$682	350	350	+0	No	+$4	06-14 12:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	9	$630	643	14	+629	Yes	-$602	04-30 06:03
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$484	486	0	+486	Yes	+$1	05-06 17:44
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	2	$482	486	0	+486	No	+$4	03-28 20:24
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$482	242	242	+0	No	+$1	04-29 18:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	1	$450	451	0	+451	Yes	+$1	06-17 18:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 18:29:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,050	100¢	$1,048	0xec6d4c…
06-18 18:38:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$997	0x2a1de0…
06-18 18:38:26	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	91	98¢	$89	0x8ccd3d…
06-17 18:01:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	451	100¢	$450	0x66d4f7…
06-17 18:00:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1,001	100¢	$1,000	0x52ed72…
06-16 20:19:17	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	SELL	10	45¢	$4	0xd75ec8…
06-16 19:22:25	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7b1577…
06-16 09:59:16	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	267	92¢	$245	0x525e78…
06-16 09:58:54	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	86	88¢	$76	0xa3a322…
06-16 09:58:54	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	134	89¢	$118	0x91945f…
06-16 05:01:18	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	41	89¢	$37	0x5164e2…
06-16 05:01:16	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xa41063…
06-16 05:01:16	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0x54ed5b…
06-16 05:01:16	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x248a27…
06-16 04:58:39	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x3ab8b3…
06-15 18:09:54	cs2 navi g2 2026 06 15	Natus Vincere	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xf730a7…
06-15 17:54:15	Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x516c63…
06-15 16:54:03	cs2 navi g2 2026 06 15	Natus Vincere	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x557348…
06-15 16:34:22	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xbc805c…
06-15 16:20:18	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x694ab8…
06-15 16:20:13	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	91	85¢	$77	0x213c08…
06-15 16:12:07	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xe48f88…
06-15 16:11:00	Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xd4c074…
06-15 05:32:48	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x63fabf…
06-15 01:38:03	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x88af24…
06-15 01:21:10	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x2a66d1…
06-14 22:40:34	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xa56c5e…
06-14 22:40:33	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0xbf430c…
06-14 22:40:33	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x1ac12b…
06-14 20:59:36	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Natus Vincere	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x69ba6a…
06-14 20:59:24	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Natus Vincere	BUY	91	9¢	$8	0x4f0ba3…
06-14 20:58:16	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	0	15¢	$0	0xa08e8f…
06-14 20:58:15	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xf850df…
06-14 20:58:15	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x154ffa…
06-14 20:58:10	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x0e16c7…
06-14 20:58:10	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x0d6f1b…
06-14 20:56:51	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	SELL	50	31¢	$16	0xccf89b…
06-14 20:55:33	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	SELL	50	30¢	$15	0x44d8b1…
06-14 20:53:43	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0xd89a59…
06-14 20:35:39	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	SELL	145	37¢	$53	0x13a99e…
06-14 20:33:18	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	SELL	87	51¢	$44	0xd3699c…
06-14 20:31:00	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x225b50…
06-14 20:27:09	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	21	55¢	$11	0x1a6bbe…
06-14 20:27:07	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xfadefb…
06-14 20:21:18	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xcb1b7e…
06-14 20:19:31	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x7dc33f…
06-14 20:18:16	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x4c63ff…
06-14 20:16:03	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	67	92¢	$61	0xef18bb…
06-14 20:16:03	cs2 navi fal2 2026 06 14	Natus Vincere	BUY	133	92¢	$123	0xbf215c…
06-14 19:59:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0x775e44…
06-14 19:58:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xd658c3…
06-14 19:58:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$110	0xc93875…
06-14 19:58:25	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xb6d894…
06-14 19:53:21	ufc aie sea1 2026 06 14	Sean O'Malley	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xca040e…
06-14 12:07:24	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	SELL	350	98¢	$343	0xf05485…
06-14 09:37:22	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$11	0x0dd229…
06-14 09:32:03	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x360386…
06-14 09:24:28	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	300	96¢	$287	0xfeef41…
06-14 08:01:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	54	95¢	$51	0x47fcc7…
06-14 08:00:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x24c8b8…
06-14 07:58:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	95¢	$44	0xea60cc…
06-14 07:29:54	Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x2d3f11…
06-14 07:27:13	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	200	99¢	$199	0xae0444…
06-14 07:27:07	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0xccd645…
06-14 07:27:03	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	47	99¢	$47	0x2305ff…
06-14 07:26:57	Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?	No	BUY	312	99¢	$309	0xc73adc…
06-14 07:21:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xf46241…
06-14 07:21:06	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	BUY	251	98¢	$246	0x184210…
06-14 07:20:09	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	27	96¢	$26	0x77fec2…
06-14 07:19:03	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xfaa10b…
06-14 07:17:22	Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x31a9fd…
06-14 07:16:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x5af4f9…
06-07 07:16:28	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in june 2026 352	No	BUY	49	90¢	$44	0x6ad690…
06-01 05:46:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	89	24¢	$21	0xcc359c…
06-01 05:42:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x7d9404…
05-29 20:58:23	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	1,200	100¢	$1,199	0x41bcde…
05-19 17:35:37	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	183	38¢	$69	0xc29dbb…
05-19 17:35:30	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0x1ded22…
05-19 17:30:01	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	13	38¢	$5	0x135c95…
05-19 17:25:58	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	65	38¢	$25	0x1857b0…
05-19 17:12:41	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xd5281c…
05-19 17:07:05	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	58	38¢	$22	0x1e82f3…
05-19 17:02:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	496	96¢	$479	0xfa097a…
05-19 17:02:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x4d5089…
05-19 16:57:42	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	336	38¢	$127	0xde1764…
05-19 16:29:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1da542…
05-19 16:23:54	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	398	97¢	$384	0xa95274…
05-19 16:22:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xd13b15…
05-12 16:40:33	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by June 30?	Yes	BUY	400	100¢	$400	0x8b2858…
05-10 06:02:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x817094…
05-06 17:44:18	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x96e717…
05-06 17:39:19	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x63a0ca…
05-06 17:34:16	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0x420acf…
05-06 17:28:30	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7d6678…
05-06 17:28:28	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0x9e7b2e…
05-06 17:25:02	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x14c7dd…
05-03 08:12:12	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	93	100¢	$93	0x647617…
05-03 08:09:16	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2,100	100¢	$2,096	0xa7664b…
05-03 07:42:06	Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xdd1ceb…
05-01 18:03:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x975435…