Alive-Activist — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

33 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$479

$3.10K lifetime

Avg / trade

$94

Open exposure

$95

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 11-02 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

68% 92% +$2

Crypto

30% 100% +$2

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+65	$65	100¢	$65	$0	11-02 12:29
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	+21	$20	96¢	$20	+$0	10-13 11:12
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+10	$10	100¢	$10	$0	11-02 12:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$564	326	238	+88	No	$0	01-24 07:54
elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 0 19	1	$304	304	0	+304	No	+$0	02-03 06:02
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$302	302	0	+302	No	+$0	07-01 11:54
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	1	$301	302	0	+302	No	+$1	04-03 15:15
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	1	$298	298	0	+298	No	+$0	06-04 09:02
will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	1	$288	289	0	+289	No	+$1	03-10 06:15
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$273	273	0	+273	No	+$0	05-06 14:01
will bnb dip to 400 in january	1	$146	146	0	+146	No	+$0	01-18 06:48
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	1	$116	116	0	+116	No	+$0	10-13 11:11
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$106	106	0	+106	No	+$0	08-14 09:20
will xrp reach 4 in january 2026	1	$90	90	0	+90	No	+$0	01-24 07:54
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	1	$85	85	0	+85	No	+$0	09-14 11:03
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$65	65	0	+65	open	—	11-02 12:29
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in September?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	09-14 11:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	09-16 08:43
Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	10-13 11:12
Will Solana reach $170 in May?	1	$13	13	0	+13	No	+$0	05-19 12:42
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	11-02 12:28
will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-22 13:48
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	03-10 06:15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	10-25 11:52
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-26 13:21
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	09-16 08:43
israel closes its airspace by august 15	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	08-14 09:21
Will Solana reach $130 in April?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-28 10:22
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	03-22 11:53
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	08-14 09:20
will trump talk to ali khamenei in february	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	02-03 06:05
will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	03-10 06:14
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	1	$2	2	0	+2	No	+$0	02-03 06:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 12:29:37	Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xfa137f…
11-02 12:28:28	Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x84741b…
10-25 11:52:08	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xe14b80…
10-13 11:12:25	Variational FDV above $5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xea47d5…
10-13 11:11:43	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0xa6c3ae…
09-16 08:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x93fcb8…
09-16 08:43:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x7e5892…
09-14 11:04:37	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in September?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x922203…
09-14 11:03:28	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x42ea95…
08-14 09:21:45	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xcdd83b…
08-14 09:20:58	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x78833d…
08-14 09:20:03	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x3d3bc8…
07-01 11:54:43	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	302	100¢	$302	0x39f615…
06-22 13:48:05	will ethereum reach 3000 in june 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x57dba2…
06-04 09:03:18	Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd8c65d…
06-04 09:02:09	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	298	100¢	$298	0xc17544…
05-26 13:21:27	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x2a9810…
05-19 12:42:57	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x63fa86…
05-06 14:01:18	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	273	100¢	$273	0x77c02b…
04-28 10:22:22	Will Solana reach $130 in April?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x7febc2…
04-03 15:15:51	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	302	100¢	$301	0x7abc06…
03-22 11:53:13	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbcd8e7…
03-10 06:15:47	will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xf1f61d…
03-10 06:15:07	will ethereum dip to 200 in march 2026	No	BUY	289	100¢	$288	0xe471d2…
03-10 06:14:31	will the us officially declare war on iran by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4d7e3d…
02-03 06:06:56	will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x1aaa1d…
02-03 06:05:40	will trump talk to ali khamenei in february	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x7f94f9…
02-03 06:02:32	elon musk of tweets february 6 february 13 0 19	No	BUY	304	100¢	$304	0xa61cff…
01-24 07:54:46	will xrp reach 4 in january 2026	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x54647c…
01-24 07:54:24	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	88	100¢	$88	0x2007c4…
01-18 06:48:06	will bnb dip to 400 in january	No	BUY	146	100¢	$146	0x3d5415…
01-18 06:47:22	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	150	100¢	$150	0x3bb407…
01-13 14:21:55	fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	326	100¢	$326	0x657d92…