Bitter-Margin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.56K

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

84.1%

Resolved

254

Trades

324

lifetime

Volume

$57.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$176

Open exposure

$32

5 positions

First seen

2026-04-05

last 10-30 04:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Sports

53% 70% -$705

Other

42% 91% +$2,261

Politics

3% — —

Crypto

2% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+28	$11	34¢	$10	-$1	05-18 18:57
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+10	$9	87¢	$9	+$0	10-30 04:32
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+7	$7	100¢	$7	+$0	05-13 03:00
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$6	+$1	05-13 02:53
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+10	$4	8¢	$1	-$3	05-13 02:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
East Carolina vs. Memphis	4	$11.0K	9,328	4,659	+4,669	Memphis	+$927	10-22 22:27
Eagles vs. Jaguars	6	$6.1K	3,475	3,475	+0	Jaguars	+$796	10-11 17:17
Lions vs. Cardinals	1	$4.4K	5,078	0	+5,078	Lions	+$711	10-11 21:35
UMass vs. UConn	1	$4.0K	4,849	0	+4,849	UConn	+$819	10-23 15:57
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	1	$3.8K	4,745	0	+4,745	Buccaneers	-$3,796	10-07 04:53
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	5	$2.8K	2,541	684	+1,857	Milwaukee Brewers	+$130	10-12 03:07
Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina	1	$2.7K	3,413	0	+3,413	Appalachian State	+$751	10-17 02:54
Texans vs. Titans	1	$1.7K	2,189	0	+2,189	Texans	+$503	10-11 17:45
mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	1	$1.6K	1,754	0	+1,754	San Diego Padres	+$105	10-01 03:58
Canucks vs. Oilers	6	$1.4K	2,122	0	+2,122	Canucks	+$687	09-30 04:26
Chargers vs. Seahawks	2	$1.2K	1,460	0	+1,460	Seahawks	+$307	10-04 21:23
Boston College vs. SMU	1	$821	883	0	+883	SMU	+$62	10-01 20:25
Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	2	$774	1,052	0	+1,052	No	+$278	10-12 17:28
nhl lak col 2026 09 30	4	$672	747	0	+747	Avalanche	+$75	10-01 04:26
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-14?	1	$607	832	0	+832	Yes	-$607	10-12 23:41
Titans vs. Ravens	2	$576	670	0	+670	Ravens	+$94	10-03 16:10
Commanders vs. 49ers	1	$561	710	0	+710	49ers	+$149	10-18 17:09
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 26?	1	$499	500	0	+500	Yes	+$1	10-26 13:47
Bears vs. Packers	3	$482	594	0	+594	Packers	+$113	10-11 19:06
Dolphins vs. Vikings	1	$436	525	0	+525	Vikings	+$89	10-04 16:41
Mavericks vs. Pacers	2	$426	600	0	+600	Mavericks	-$426	10-23 16:18
UCLA vs. Oregon	1	$412	473	0	+473	UCLA	+$61	10-10 23:12
Will Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	2	$402	503	0	+503	No	+$101	10-18 17:07
Bears vs. Falcons	1	$385	470	0	+470	Bears	+$85	10-18 17:29
Giants vs. Texans	2	$296	366	0	+366	Giants	-$296	10-24 16:12
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$283	142	142	+0	No	$0	05-04 03:44
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$270	135	135	+0	No	$0	04-14 03:52
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$268	134	134	+0	No	+$0	05-12 02:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$267	135	135	+0	No	+$0	04-22 03:48
Bills vs. Rams	1	$267	430	0	+430	Bills	-$267	10-12 02:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 04:32:58	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$9	0xaee07d…
10-26 13:47:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 26?	Yes	BUY	500	100¢	$499	0x5cb3e9…
10-25 22:02:12	Broncos vs. Cardinals	Broncos	BUY	98	85¢	$83	0x0271fd…
10-25 21:52:21	Packers vs. Lions	Lions	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0x27c3fe…
10-24 16:12:00	Giants vs. Texans	Texans	BUY	86	81¢	$70	0x473e89…
10-23 16:18:26	Mavericks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	225	71¢	$160	0x3d0d0f…
10-23 16:13:33	Mavericks vs. Pacers	Pacers	BUY	375	71¢	$266	0xd0cb3e…
10-23 15:57:08	UMass vs. UConn	UConn	BUY	4,849	83¢	$4,030	0x378097…
10-23 15:34:11	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	31	62¢	$19	0x2c70c6…
10-23 15:32:54	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	47	63¢	$30	0xafd662…
10-23 04:03:29	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	38	63¢	$24	0x962749…
10-23 00:07:02	Spread: Patriots (-7.5)	Bears	BUY	72	83¢	$60	0x67cacc…
10-22 22:27:00	East Carolina vs. Memphis	Memphis	BUY	672	80¢	$538	0x7ed7de…
10-22 22:22:47	East Carolina vs. Memphis	Memphis	BUY	3,997	79¢	$3,157	0x36c558…
10-22 13:20:26	East Carolina vs. Memphis	Memphis	SELL	4,659	78¢	$3,634	0x62c282…
10-22 13:19:50	East Carolina vs. Memphis	Memphis	BUY	4,659	79¢	$3,681	0x8a3c68…
10-22 02:19:11	Spread: Patriots (-7.5)	Bears	SELL	22	83¢	$18	0xcbb8a2…
10-22 02:17:12	Spread: Patriots (-7.5)	Bears	BUY	22	83¢	$18	0x898eda…
10-21 23:36:42	Giants vs. Texans	Texans	BUY	280	81¢	$227	0x9456ba…
10-19 18:02:26	Sharks vs. Maple Leafs	Maple Leafs	BUY	168	55¢	$92	0x9a672a…
10-18 21:51:38	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	301	77¢	$232	0xc12131…
10-18 17:29:53	Bears vs. Falcons	Bears	BUY	470	82¢	$385	0xbe383d…
10-18 17:09:42	Commanders vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	710	79¢	$561	0x2f4092…
10-18 17:07:14	Will Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$400	0xfacd1c…
10-18 17:04:21	Will Liverpool FC vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?	No	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0x5a3b66…
10-17 02:54:53	Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina	Appalachian State	BUY	3,413	78¢	$2,662	0x4b71db…
10-12 23:41:18	Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	832	73¢	$607	0xf6065a…
10-12 17:28:23	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	608	74¢	$450	0x9d3cfe…
10-12 04:15:21	Will Coventry City FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?	No	BUY	444	73¢	$324	0x349c7e…
10-12 03:07:09	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	300	96¢	$288	0x9725b9…
10-12 03:05:15	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	500	96¢	$480	0xa611f5…
10-12 03:04:33	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	1,057	92¢	$972	0x10a9b3…
10-12 02:58:56	Bills vs. Rams	Rams	BUY	430	62¢	$267	0x81ed47…
10-12 02:31:21	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	SELL	684	77¢	$527	0x48b017…
10-12 02:30:24	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	684	75¢	$513	0x0c825f…
10-12 02:06:56	Ravens vs. Falcons	Falcons	BUY	326	74¢	$241	0xedabbe…
10-11 21:35:04	Lions vs. Cardinals	Lions	BUY	5,078	86¢	$4,367	0x236265…
10-11 19:06:27	Bears vs. Packers	Packers	BUY	218	92¢	$201	0x522904…
10-11 18:17:49	Bears vs. Packers	Packers	BUY	96	71¢	$68	0x4c94b0…
10-11 18:15:22	Bears vs. Packers	Packers	BUY	280	76¢	$213	0x4c5ae2…
10-11 17:45:22	Texans vs. Titans	Texans	BUY	2,189	77¢	$1,686	0x1dd943…
10-11 17:17:13	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	SELL	3,475	100¢	$3,472	0x36b15b…
10-11 17:01:00	Bengals vs. Dolphins	Bengals	BUY	286	75¢	$214	0x15ca6d…
10-10 23:12:40	UCLA vs. Oregon	UCLA	BUY	473	87¢	$412	0x7adb6b…
10-10 22:38:13	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	2,895	77¢	$2,229	0xa307f2…
10-10 16:45:46	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-10?	No	BUY	333	76¢	$253	0x3bb938…
10-10 16:05:09	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	359	77¢	$276	0x3427f1…
10-09 05:22:57	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	71	77¢	$55	0xf26e26…
10-09 05:18:50	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x5e0179…
10-09 05:15:27	Eagles vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	BUY	107	77¢	$82	0x9b59c4…
10-09 04:14:15	Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights	Maple Leafs	BUY	122	43¢	$52	0xa0ff32…
10-07 04:53:30	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	BUY	4,745	80¢	$3,796	0x157b9e…
10-05 02:17:46	Lions vs. Panthers	Panthers	BUY	177	55¢	$97	0x3b1796…
10-04 21:23:10	Chargers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	BUY	1,402	79¢	$1,108	0xea5d63…
10-04 21:12:43	Chargers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	BUY	58	78¢	$45	0xf589d9…
10-04 16:41:20	Dolphins vs. Vikings	Vikings	BUY	525	83¢	$436	0x7b443f…
10-03 16:18:48	San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	232	65¢	$151	0x1f35a2…
10-03 16:10:32	Titans vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	560	86¢	$482	0x7ec87f…
10-02 23:52:44	Pittsburgh vs. Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech	BUY	306	72¢	$220	0x6fc530…
10-02 03:20:18	Steelers vs. Browns	Browns	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x4e8a49…
10-02 03:18:00	Steelers vs. Browns	Browns	BUY	123	88¢	$108	0x591f7d…
10-02 03:11:03	mlb nyy tb 2026 10 05	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	171	54¢	$92	0xd7dc4d…
10-01 20:25:47	Boston College vs. SMU	SMU	BUY	883	93¢	$821	0x3dc6fb…
10-01 05:50:15	Titans vs. Ravens	Ravens	BUY	110	86¢	$95	0xc1494a…
10-01 05:08:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on October 1?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x34723a…
10-01 04:26:32	nhl lak col 2026 09 30	Avalanche	BUY	155	97¢	$151	0x9a1cf6…
10-01 04:26:11	nhl lak col 2026 09 30	Avalanche	BUY	194	97¢	$189	0x33e925…
10-01 04:26:11	nhl lak col 2026 09 30	Avalanche	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x18c214…
10-01 03:58:03	mlb chc sd 2026 09 30	San Diego Padres	BUY	1,754	94¢	$1,649	0xf0d802…
10-01 03:25:27	nhl lak col 2026 09 30	Avalanche	BUY	294	79¢	$232	0x7b20cf…
09-30 04:26:53	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	1,056	66¢	$700	0x35fc97…
09-30 04:25:26	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	4	69¢	$2	0xbb39b5…
09-30 04:25:17	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xbd240e…
09-30 04:25:05	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	120	69¢	$83	0xe0f711…
09-30 04:25:02	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	217	69¢	$150	0x2ee3e4…
09-30 04:25:00	Canucks vs. Oilers	Canucks	BUY	720	69¢	$496	0x0e7ae0…
07-26 02:05:15	ethereum above 1700 on july 26 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x12100d…
07-11 15:42:47	will ethereum dip to 1650 on july 11	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1d6ec5…
07-11 15:42:37	will ethereum dip to 1600 on july 11	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc2651b…
07-11 15:42:28	will ethereum reach 1950 on july 11	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x554f2d…
07-11 15:42:10	will bitcoin dip to 61k on july 11	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xef5a3b…
07-11 15:41:58	will bitcoin reach 68k on july 11	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x9ee753…
06-23 04:56:59	ethereum above 1600 on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc1cb69…
06-23 04:56:44	bitcoin above 58k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd40060…
06-16 06:24:03	nvda close above 195 on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd8ee40…
06-16 06:23:49	googl close above 350 on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0a89b4…
06-16 06:23:37	ethereum above 1600 on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xc82ffa…
06-16 06:23:25	bitcoin above 62k on june 16 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc3f7ba…
06-11 23:23:43	ethereum above 1900 on june 12 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x44821f…
06-11 23:23:28	ethereum above 1400 on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x34976b…
06-11 23:23:13	bitcoin above 66k on june 12 2026	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x37de7d…
06-11 23:22:46	tsla close above 360 on june 12 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xea35d0…
06-05 06:19:10	bitcoin above 58k on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0xea8dd1…
06-05 06:18:00	amzn close above 240 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfa689b…
06-05 06:17:42	ethereum above 1500 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x5d8465…
06-05 06:16:28	googl close above 350 on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x8872dd…
06-01 05:31:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8b5b92…
06-01 05:30:54	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on June 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6c075b…
06-01 05:30:37	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1?	Yes	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0e4379…
06-01 05:30:21	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x556b9f…