Realized P&L (30d)
-$1.82K
Unrealized P&L
+$77
Hit rate
45.9%
Resolved (30d)
618
Trades (30d)
8,501
8,651 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$87.3K
$88.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.24K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-30
last 10-31 05:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 30 days
Categories
Other
61% 47% -$1,224
Politics
29% 48% -$492
Tech
4% 67% +$11
Sports
3% 30% -$62
Crypto
2% 23% -$48
Pop-Culture
1% 50% -$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
32 active days in 12wk • peak 1768 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +140 $129 91¢ $128 -$1 10-31 02:54
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? Yes +120 $113 95¢ $114 +$2 10-31 02:41
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? No — +100 $89 89¢ $89 $0 10-31 04:24
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +97 $71 76¢ $74 +$2 10-31 00:27
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +80 $34 91¢ $73 +$39 10-19 20:24
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +90 $53 63¢ $57 +$3 10-30 18:47
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes +50 $38 97¢ $48 +$10 10-23 16:48
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes +50 $38 93¢ $46 +$8 10-21 15:25
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? No +60 $44 72¢ $43 $0 10-30 14:39
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes +100 $46 41¢ $41 -$5 10-30 23:53
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? No +50 $35 82¢ $41 +$6 10-16 00:22
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? Yes +42 $30 87¢ $37 +$6 10-16 16:48
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? No +40 $35 89¢ $35 +$0 10-30 20:01
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +57 $33 59¢ $33 +$1 10-30 15:53
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? Yes +90 $36 37¢ $33 -$3 10-30 18:55
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? No +40 $33 82¢ $33 $0 10-30 12:32
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? No +40 $31 79¢ $32 +$0 10-31 01:15
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? No +50 $26 56¢ $28 +$2 10-17 19:24
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +50 $19 51¢ $26 +$6 10-22 10:07
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +100 $27 24¢ $24 -$3 10-31 01:12
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +40 $23 60¢ $24 +$1 10-30 16:35
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes +80 $24 28¢ $22 -$2 10-30 14:57
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +40 $23 55¢ $22 -$1 10-31 04:58
Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Yes +50 $24 44¢ $22 -$2 10-17 19:35
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No +20 $18 95¢ $19 +$0 10-30 16:30
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +57 $20 32¢ $19 -$1 10-22 13:32
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? No +20 $14 92¢ $18 +$4 10-22 19:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? No +20 $18 91¢ $18 $0 10-30 05:22
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? No +19 $14 96¢ $18 +$4 10-22 19:44
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +40 $18 45¢ $18 +$0 10-31 04:58