Threadbare-Dryer-Fowl — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$241

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

37.6%

Resolved

176

Trades

335

lifetime

Volume

$1.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-18

last 10-19 14:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

92% 17% -$255

Politics

4% 33% -$5

Sports

3% 100% +$1

Crypto

1% 100% +$3

Tech

1% 50% +$16

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 43 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	9	$159	434	434	+0	No	+$10	05-13 20:43
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	14	$94	108	108	+0	No	+$16	08-28 21:01
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C or higher on May 24?	5	$76	252	0	+252	No	-$76	05-24 12:28
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 22?	6	$26	89	0	+89	No	-$26	05-21 13:19
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	2	$24	38	38	+0	No	-$10	08-24 12:52
Augsburg: Marko Topo vs Miguel Damas	4	$24	15	15	+0	Miguel Damas	+$6	08-24 14:00
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 12?	1	$21	353	0	+353	No	-$21	05-11 18:42
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 23?	8	$20	96	0	+96	No	-$20	05-22 17:30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	08-29 08:39
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on May 26?	1	$19	149	0	+149	No	-$19	05-25 10:43
nfl sea ten 2026 08 24	4	$18	26	0	+26	Titans	+$1	08-24 02:52
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on May 26?	1	$14	32	0	+32	No	-$14	05-26 18:06
atp lajal jordanl 2026 08 24	6	$14	30	0	+30	Jordan Lee	+$6	08-24 16:52
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$13	11	11	+0	No	+$3	10-19 14:40
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 26?	1	$13	400	0	+400	No	-$13	05-25 10:43
atp wehnelt hardt 2026 08 25	4	$13	15	5	+10	Kai Wehnelt	-$3	08-25 14:38
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 8?	1	$13	86	0	+86	Yes	+$73	05-07 18:52
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	10-19 14:40
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9?	1	$12	21	0	+21	No	-$12	05-07 18:53
Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	10-19 14:40
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 11?	2	$11	27	0	+27	Yes	+$16	05-11 06:24
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 30?	2	$11	6	6	+0	No	+$1	08-31 02:44
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 3?	2	$11	40	0	+40	No	-$11	05-02 15:29
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	08-31 02:45
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 30?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	08-29 22:32
Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	10-19 14:40
Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	10-19 14:40
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	08-30 20:04
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	08-31 02:45
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	08-31 02:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 14:40:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	2¢	$1	0x71a4f7…
10-19 14:40:48	Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x27d9d7…
10-19 14:40:42	Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	SELL	7	75¢	$5	0x134d34…
10-19 14:40:36	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x711c2d…
10-19 14:40:30	Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0x1954b5…
10-19 14:40:23	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x3e602b…
10-19 14:40:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	11	76¢	$8	0xc20e7b…
09-08 21:19:19	Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x279abd…
09-08 21:16:36	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x3a5d62…
09-08 20:54:51	Will USD be between 2.0M and 2.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xd3c75c…
09-08 20:54:46	Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x7d2054…
09-08 20:54:40	Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x48b08a…
09-08 20:36:33	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	BUY	17	15¢	$3	0xdb4604…
09-08 20:33:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x46bdba…
08-31 12:57:36	Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	128	4¢	$5	0xc7818a…
08-31 02:45:18	Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?	No	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xe236d6…
08-31 02:45:06	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	67¢	$5	0x69f339…
08-31 02:45:01	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf35f9b…
08-31 02:44:58	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0x0ffb1f…
08-31 02:44:52	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x46ccaa…
08-31 02:44:46	Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x6b74fb…
08-31 02:44:19	Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0xad7970…
08-31 02:44:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xaf4861…
08-30 20:10:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 21 2026	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xdd9436…
08-30 20:04:03	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	SELL	6	83¢	$5	0x381684…
08-30 10:45:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xf6845d…
08-30 09:26:37	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x8b5bcd…
08-29 22:32:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 30?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x2508db…
08-29 12:51:06	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x1774a1…
08-29 12:51:04	Will "The Odyssey" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xd5a6b0…
08-29 12:51:03	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 30?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x0a46d4…
08-29 12:51:00	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 30?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xc1ea67…
08-29 12:50:52	Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x9dd269…
08-29 12:50:49	Will Stephen Lynch be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xaefd5f…
08-29 12:50:45	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x179793…
08-29 12:50:36	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xa41428…
08-29 12:50:30	Will "Don't Say Good Luck" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf6845f…
08-29 12:50:28	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x0919c9…
08-29 12:50:24	Will MrBeast's next video get between 76 and 77 million views in week 1?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3aac59…
08-29 08:39:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x88a941…
08-29 07:42:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x48a61f…
08-29 07:38:31	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 30?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x029ee6…
08-29 07:37:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe643bf…
08-29 07:15:00	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 27 to August 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	5¢	$4	0x7d2ce0…
08-28 21:01:34	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	167	0¢	$1	0x879c1d…
08-28 21:01:30	Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0xdc4b5c…
08-28 21:01:27	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0xea27d9…
08-28 21:01:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0xf5ba81…
08-28 21:01:19	Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	300	1¢	$3	0x4ccc7a…
08-28 21:01:15	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	697	1¢	$4	0x57c5b4…
08-28 21:01:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	108	51¢	$55	0xee4e71…
08-28 16:16:39	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,993	0¢	$8	0x8b8676…
08-28 16:15:16	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	SELL	38	11¢	$4	0xd280b3…
08-28 16:15:06	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	29	14¢	$4	0x66ef12…
08-26 18:59:45	Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x263324…
08-26 17:50:25	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x39d09e…
08-26 17:50:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x94d071…
08-26 17:49:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x28e6df…
08-26 17:49:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x811590…
08-26 17:48:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x642ed1…
08-26 17:47:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x082d17…
08-26 17:46:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xd5df3b…
08-26 17:45:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xfab02c…
08-26 17:44:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xecb98a…
08-26 17:43:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x2cb79d…
08-26 17:43:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x4183ee…
08-26 17:43:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x92869d…
08-26 17:42:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xea4f28…
08-26 17:18:34	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xf50c7a…
08-26 17:09:12	Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xd8a70c…
08-26 17:04:15	Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x641eca…
08-26 17:03:37	Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd18cc4…
08-26 17:03:07	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	411	1¢	$3	0xaa75c7…
08-26 17:02:30	Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xf8e69a…
08-26 17:01:27	Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x561061…
08-26 14:09:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x02eb9b…
08-26 14:07:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xf2d5c1…
08-26 14:04:37	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0x7b6960…
08-26 13:38:54	US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	BUY	56	4¢	$2	0xd30531…
08-26 03:18:18	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8cd8e5…
08-26 03:16:15	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xaf87f2…
08-26 03:15:21	Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xab3ac0…
08-26 03:09:18	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	BUY	28	11¢	$3	0xab63a5…
08-26 03:07:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x2779c3…
08-26 02:54:18	US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9f3c2f…
08-25 17:19:57	crickcl ada thr 2026 08 25	Thrissur Titans	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x68cf3b…
08-25 14:39:06	atp hassan serna 2026 08 25	Benjamin Hassan	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x4af14c…
08-25 14:38:58	wta zhang timofee 2026 08 25	Shuai Zhang	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x6cfd54…
08-25 14:38:48	atp wehnelt hardt 2026 08 25	Kai Wehnelt	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x208f2a…
08-25 14:38:30	atp zandsch vallejo 2026 08 25	Botic van de Zandschulp	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x226b86…
08-25 14:38:25	atp bellucc darderi 2026 08 25	Luciano Darderi	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0x3c8bcb…
08-25 13:57:39	atp zandsch vallejo 2026 08 25	Botic van de Zandschulp	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2bcea6…
08-25 13:56:42	atp loffhag gray 2026 08 25	Alastair Gray	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x4e4518…
08-25 13:55:45	atp loffhag gray 2026 08 25	Alastair Gray	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x67e3db…
08-25 13:55:13	Augsburg: Petr Brunclik vs Daniel Masur	Petr Brunclik	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x87e4f3…
08-25 13:54:34	atp bonding durasov 2026 08 25	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x28e8f3…
08-25 13:54:16	atp bonding durasov 2026 08 25	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x2fb0b5…
08-25 13:53:51	atp bonding durasov 2026 08 25	Viktor Durasovic	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe16cf5…
08-25 13:53:03	atp wehnelt hardt 2026 08 25	Kai Wehnelt	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x98ce32…
08-25 13:52:33	crickcl ada thr 2026 08 25	Thrissur Titans	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x7cecb8…