Realized P&L
-$5
Unrealized P&L
+$37
Hit rate
37.3%
Resolved
4
Trades
1,812
lifetime
Volume
$21.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$12
Open exposure
$153
16 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-21 22:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Crypto
52% 0% $-5
Other
25% 0% $-5
Politics
12%
Sports
11% 100% +$5
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes +246 $29 14¢ $33 +$5 07-22 10:11
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Yes -962 $-36 $-27 +$8 06-07 19:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +139 $20 14¢ $19 $-1 07-17 21:41
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes -69 $-18 24¢ $-17 +$1 06-05 15:21
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -231 $-32 $-13 +$20 06-05 15:21
Anduril IPO before 2027? Yes -115 $-13 $-9 +$3 06-07 19:13
Databricks IPO before 2027? Yes -85 $-15 10¢ $-9 +$6 06-07 19:13
Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? Yes -15 $-5 52¢ $-8 $-3 06-03 15:28
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Yes -77 $-7 $-7 +$0 06-07 19:13
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0034 by December 31, 2026? Yes -12 $-3 29¢ $-3 $-1 06-05 15:21
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes -23 $-1 14¢ $-3 $-2 06-03 15:31
Canva IPO before 2027? Yes -55 $-5 $-2 +$2 06-07 19:13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes -8 $-1 11¢ $-1 +$0 06-05 15:20
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 20 Gwei before 2027? Yes -10 $-1 $-1 +$0 06-05 15:20
Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026? Yes -2 $-0 32¢ $-1 $-0 06-05 15:20
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No +422 $3 $0 $-3 06-21 17:46