Guilty-Screenwriting — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.01K

Unrealized P&L

-$59

Hit rate

90.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$9.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$299

Open exposure

$3.69K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-26 11:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

50% 71% +$553

Other

49% 71% +$562

Sports

1% 0% -$100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+1,149	$1,000	87¢	$1.0K	+$1	09-27 09:39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+715	$500	99¢	$708	+$208	05-31 19:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	+581	$500	96¢	$559	+$59	05-31 19:00
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+603	$500	84¢	$507	+$7	10-26 11:31
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	+370	$300	64¢	$239	-$61	09-27 09:49
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+225	$200	90¢	$203	+$3	09-27 09:52
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+533	$200	34¢	$179	-$21	10-13 12:17
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+328	$200	32¢	$107	-$93	05-31 18:57
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+154	$100	66¢	$102	+$2	10-26 11:29
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+649	$50	12¢	$78	+$28	09-27 09:39
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+833	$200	1¢	$10	-$190	05-31 19:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 11:31:59	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	603	83¢	$500	0xbddcac…
10-26 11:29:59	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0x245ac6…
10-25 10:14:21	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,250	8¢	$100	0x09818e…
10-13 12:17:28	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0x4e518e…
09-27 09:52:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x4a4d7f…
09-27 09:49:39	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	263	38¢	$100	0x5292c8…
09-27 09:49:05	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	370	81¢	$300	0xf9fe5a…
09-27 09:47:29	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0xa0acdb…
09-27 09:39:38	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	649	8¢	$50	0xc38400…
09-27 09:39:09	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0x71daa7…
09-27 09:36:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	467	43¢	$200	0xcc9c4d…
05-31 19:06:25	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	417	72¢	$300	0x566dd4…
05-31 19:05:38	Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	833	24¢	$200	0xcd23f4…
05-31 19:01:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	715	70¢	$500	0x9125bb…
05-31 19:00:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	581	86¢	$500	0xc2c99e…
05-31 18:58:54	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0x637c9e…
05-31 18:58:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	282	71¢	$200	0xd3c135…
05-31 18:57:44	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	328	61¢	$200	0xbf488a…
05-31 18:57:02	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	585	17¢	$100	0xc1bd37…
04-14 13:04:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1,222	82¢	$1,000	0x210961…
04-11 04:00:47	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	497	40¢	$200	0xfb1327…
04-11 03:59:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	375	80¢	$300	0xc5fa83…
04-08 15:30:01	Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xf74f17…
04-07 15:41:25	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	435	46¢	$200	0xb4b159…
03-25 00:24:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x91d10d…
03-25 00:22:31	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	303	66¢	$200	0x69e544…
03-16 21:25:09	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	215	47¢	$100	0x55416d…
03-16 21:24:59	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	158	63¢	$100	0x2179e0…
03-02 13:33:09	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1,276	78¢	$1,000	0x2c8987…
01-03 07:56:27	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	No	BUY	318	94¢	$300	0x0f5825…
01-03 07:55:09	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x274344…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$1.3K	1,597	0	+1,597	No	+$297	04-14 13:04
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$1000	1,276	0	+1,276	No	+$276	03-02 13:33
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$1000	1,149	0	+1,149	open	—	09-27 09:39
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$1000	1,087	0	+1,087	No	+$87	03-25 00:24
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$500	884	0	+884	No	+$384	09-27 09:36
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	1	$500	603	0	+603	open	—	10-26 11:31
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	1	$500	715	0	+715	open	—	05-31 19:01
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$500	581	0	+581	open	—	05-31 19:00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	1	$300	370	0	+370	open	—	09-27 09:49
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	1	$300	318	0	+318	No	+$18	01-03 07:56
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$200	1,250	1,250	+0	open	—	10-25 10:14
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$200	533	0	+533	open	—	10-13 12:17
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$200	497	0	+497	Yes	-$200	04-11 04:00
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	1	$200	833	0	+833	open	—	05-31 19:05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	1	$200	328	0	+328	open	—	05-31 18:57
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	1	$200	435	0	+435	Yes	+$235	04-07 15:41
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	1	$200	225	0	+225	open	—	09-27 09:52
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$200	303	0	+303	Yes	+$103	03-25 00:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$200	282	0	+282	No	+$82	05-31 18:58
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$100	154	0	+154	open	—	10-26 11:29
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	1	$100	215	0	+215	No	-$100	03-16 21:25
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$100	585	0	+585	No	-$100	05-31 18:57
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	1	$100	158	0	+158	No	-$100	03-16 21:24
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	1	$50	649	0	+649	open	—	09-27 09:39
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	1	$50	70	0	+70	No	+$20	05-31 18:58
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	1	$50	68	0	+68	No	+$18	01-03 07:55
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?	1	$5	28	0	+28	Yes	-$5	04-08 15:30