Tidy-Methane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$517

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-01-11

last 06-15 10:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

58% — —

Sports

29% 100% +$13

Other

9% 100% +$1

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+11	$10	100¢	$11	+$1	06-15 10:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$30	33	0	+33	open	—	05-09 11:50
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)	3	$29	24	24	+0	Cavaliers	+$9	05-14 02:47
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	2	$27	22	22	+0	open	—	06-11 01:23
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 9pt5	2	$22	26	26	+0	open	—	06-14 02:32
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$21	13	13	+0	open	—	05-26 21:54
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 09:45
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	01-22 05:45
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 09:45
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-15 09:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	4	$20	265	0	+265	open	—	05-21 15:58
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	1	$13	0	14	-14	open	—	05-31 00:43
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	1	$12	0	13	-13	open	—	05-31 00:43
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	1	$10	72	0	+72	open	—	05-31 00:25
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 15pt5	1	$10	22	0	+22	open	—	06-11 02:28
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	01-27 12:59
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	1	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	05-01 03:30
Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	1	$10	33	0	+33	open	—	05-27 02:46
76ers vs. Knicks	1	$10	14	0	+14	Knicks	+$4	05-07 00:01
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	03-26 21:11
nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 6pt5	1	$10	27	0	+27	open	—	06-11 01:25
Celtics vs. 76ers	1	$10	33	0	+33	open	—	05-01 01:31
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	03-01 01:49
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	1	$10	15	0	+15	open	—	03-08 07:24
netanyahu out by march 31 854	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	03-15 00:55
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	03-28 03:13
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-23 23:13
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	02-20 21:56
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	01-11 21:54
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	02-24 12:11
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$10	11	0	+11	Yes	+$1	03-08 07:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-15 10:57:36	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0d83ef…
06-15 10:54:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x3085f9…
06-14 02:32:25	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 9pt5	Spurs	SELL	26	47¢	$12	0x0ea82e…
06-14 00:33:43	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13 spread home 9pt5	Spurs	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x1221af…
06-11 02:28:15	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 15pt5	Knicks	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xb0b51a…
06-11 01:25:16	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 6pt5	Knicks	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x1ee0b8…
06-11 01:23:42	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	SELL	22	77¢	$17	0xb36eb8…
06-11 00:42:10	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x95a1e4…
06-06 02:48:07	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread away 2pt5	Spurs	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x6ebf53…
05-31 00:43:45	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x75a002…
05-31 00:43:39	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	No	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0x5767f5…
05-31 00:25:52	Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	Thunder	BUY	72	14¢	$10	0xdec3b2…
05-27 02:46:14	Spread: Thunder (-5.5)	Spurs	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x05d585…
05-26 21:54:47	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x2417d8…
05-26 21:53:47	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	22¢	$6	0x23a21b…
05-26 12:28:35	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x44d788…
05-24 21:19:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x189324…
05-23 23:13:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x52b6fe…
05-23 23:13:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xffe8e0…
05-21 15:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x0274ae…
05-21 15:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe63043…
05-21 15:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa4598c…
05-21 15:58:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7a842c…
05-15 09:46:05	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x0c55eb…
05-15 09:45:44	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x5efb87…
05-15 09:45:33	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x067fb1…
05-14 02:47:03	Spread: Pistons (-5.5)	Cavaliers	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x9d9e29…
05-14 02:45:10	Spread: Pistons (-5.5)	Cavaliers	SELL	17	80¢	$14	0x57b3c7…
05-14 02:36:35	Spread: Pistons (-5.5)	Cavaliers	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x31ecdc…
05-09 11:50:58	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xfb26e9…
05-07 00:01:01	76ers vs. Knicks	Knicks	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x8f5441…
05-01 03:30:36	Nuggets vs. Timberwolves	Nuggets	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x53e7f7…
05-01 01:31:00	Celtics vs. 76ers	Celtics	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x9b7162…
03-28 03:13:49	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xf81f71…
03-28 03:12:23	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 479 558	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x92de3c…
03-26 21:24:53	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x2de829…
03-26 21:11:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xbb39ff…
03-26 21:06:37	will iran strike azerbaijan by march 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd30d08…
03-15 00:58:53	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x96c8b9…
03-15 00:55:35	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x1da2cc…
03-09 18:45:49	spx up or down on march 9 2026	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x133520…
03-08 07:40:13	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x6bfcf9…
03-08 07:24:35	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x375232…
03-01 01:49:39	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xebe0a4…
02-24 12:11:58	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x5f7aba…
02-20 21:56:14	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xa114ca…
01-27 12:59:57	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x45b914…
01-22 05:57:42	ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xd02ba1…
01-22 05:45:32	will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xba666e…
01-22 01:41:02	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x776967…
01-11 21:54:50	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x40ed20…