Fat-Caviar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$60

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-20 07:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 100% +$2

Other

48% 100% +$3

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No		+60	$60	99¢	$60	$0	10-20 07:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	3	$532	366	167	+200	No	+$0	01-23 14:19
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$334	334	0	+334	No	+$0	05-06 16:13
will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	1	$328	328	0	+328	No	+$0	02-07 10:49
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in july 2026	1	$327	328	0	+328	No	+$1	07-03 07:30
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	1	$322	322	0	+322	No	+$0	04-11 08:44
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$314	314	0	+314	No	+$0	06-06 10:38
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	1	$307	307	0	+307	No	+$0	03-07 15:55
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	2	$204	103	103	+0	No	+$1	10-17 12:11
will bnb dip to 200 in august	1	$116	116	0	+116	No	+$0	08-05 07:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	1	$87	88	0	+88	No	+$1	09-04 10:16
will tesla be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$81	81	0	+81	No	+$0	01-16 10:34
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	1	$62	62	0	+62	No	+$0	10-20 07:22
will solana reach 210 in january 2026	1	$61	61	0	+61	No	+$0	01-23 14:20
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	1	$60	60	0	+60	open	—	10-20 07:23
will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	03-20 10:53
will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	08-05 07:38
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	1	$11	0	11	-11	open	—	09-04 10:15
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	09-04 10:15
will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	03-26 08:47
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	06-19 09:46
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	04-27 09:16
Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	06-06 10:40
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-24 10:40
Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	10-11 06:55
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-06 16:14
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-17 15:36
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	09-04 10:17
Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	10-11 06:54
will ldp win a majority in the 2026 japanese snap election	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	02-07 10:50
tim walz charged by march 31	1	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	01-04 16:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 07:23:13	StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	No	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xc918a1…
10-20 07:22:16	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	62	100¢	$62	0xa7c7e6…
10-17 12:11:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	SELL	103	99¢	$102	0x3fc342…
10-11 06:55:08	Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x07ea95…
10-11 06:54:30	Lula flips Bolsonaro for Brazil president by October 15?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x3bdd4d…
10-11 06:53:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	103	99¢	$102	0xacea7d…
09-04 10:17:24	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7f935a…
09-04 10:16:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	BUY	88	99¢	$87	0x3875f2…
09-04 10:15:28	Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x3c91a3…
09-04 10:15:09	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5beb21…
08-05 07:39:26	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9085e7…
08-05 07:38:44	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xce1b22…
08-05 07:37:59	will bnb dip to 200 in august	No	BUY	116	100¢	$116	0x99d6ae…
07-03 07:30:23	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in july 2026	No	BUY	328	100¢	$327	0x9468a7…
06-19 09:46:53	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb51731…
06-06 10:40:01	Will Databricks’ market cap be $250B or greater at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x94138d…
06-06 10:38:57	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	314	100¢	$314	0x0aeda9…
05-24 10:40:13	Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x696ae7…
05-17 15:36:54	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x576673…
05-06 16:14:39	Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbe8e34…
05-06 16:13:50	Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	334	100¢	$334	0x7e5c7b…
04-27 09:16:20	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa4ac25…
04-11 08:44:39	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April?	No	BUY	322	100¢	$322	0x275e95…
03-26 08:47:59	will bitcoin dip to 20k in march 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x939e92…
03-20 10:53:13	will silver si hit high 200 by end of march	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xce6795…
03-07 15:55:05	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	307	100¢	$307	0x30ac01…
02-07 10:50:55	will ldp win a majority in the 2026 japanese snap election	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7840fd…
02-07 10:49:19	will amazon be the second largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	No	BUY	328	100¢	$328	0x0e0591…
01-23 14:20:30	will solana reach 210 in january 2026	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x283ac6…
01-23 14:19:16	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	SELL	67	100¢	$66	0xc2488c…
01-16 10:34:16	will tesla be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xef5927…
01-16 10:33:36	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x6feeec…
01-04 16:39:07	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	BUY	366	100¢	$366	0x8d39c4…
01-04 16:38:21	tim walz charged by march 31	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0xac0663…