Realized P&L
-$89
Unrealized P&L
+$8
Hit rate
59.7%
Resolved
628
Trades
4,315
lifetime
Volume
$15.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$73
22 positions
First seen
2026-02-22
last 10-26 14:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 138 days
Categories
Other
45% 63% +$34
Politics
34% 58% +$12
Crypto
17% 84% -$91
Sports
3% 62% -$43
Tech
1% 78% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +15 $12 92¢ $14 +$2 10-14 12:13
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +33 $2 26¢ $9 +$7 09-17 01:24
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +6 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 07-12 12:05
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 10-26 14:23
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-15 17:51
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +5 $4 95¢ $5 +$0 10-18 03:24
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? No +4 $4 99¢ $4 +$0 10-25 11:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +4 $3 93¢ $4 +$0 10-24 19:21
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +5 $4 66¢ $3 $0 10-18 02:10
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +5 $3 66¢ $3 +$0 10-26 12:44
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +5 $1 68¢ $3 +$2 10-06 12:11
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +3 $3 96¢ $3 +$0 06-07 12:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 $0 10-26 10:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 10-24 18:05
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +12 $3 18¢ $2 -$1 10-26 08:17
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +20 $1 7¢ $1 +$0 10-23 16:39
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes +1 $1 95¢ $1 $0 10-14 04:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1 $0 92¢ $0 +$0 10-26 07:34
us iran hormuz agreement by october 31 Yes +8 $1 5¢ $0 $0 10-15 05:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? No +5 $2 7¢ $0 -$1 10-14 10:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +4 $2 6¢ $0 -$1 10-15 20:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +1 $0 14¢ $0 $0 10-24 06:39