Triangular-Ruffle — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.67K

Unrealized P&L

+$361

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

129

lifetime

Volume

$69.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$538

Open exposure

$3.83K

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 10-28 21:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Politics

97% 86% +$2,304

Other

3% 100% +$369

Tech

0% 100% +$7

Crypto

0% 25% -$6

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+4,215	$3,327	88¢	$3.7K	+$361	10-28 21:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+413	$124	28¢	$114	-$10	09-21 09:44
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+29	$18	98¢	$29	+$10	10-22 10:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	25	$33.1K	22,354	22,352	+2	Yes	+$1,836	09-21 08:23
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	46	$29.3K	18,265	18,265	+0	No	+$440	09-21 05:53
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	28	$3.7K	5,165	950	+4,215	open	—	10-28 21:44
yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	3	$1.1K	684	684	+0	Yes	+$252	08-10 17:02
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	2	$700	725	0	+725	No	+$25	08-10 02:34
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	4	$382	215	186	+29	open	—	10-22 10:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	3	$364	276	276	+0	Yes	+$116	10-22 10:45
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$149	82	82	+0	open	—	10-21 11:21
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?	4	$144	151	0	+151	Yes	+$7	09-16 01:22
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	1	$124	413	0	+413	open	—	09-21 09:44
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	1	$119	122	0	+122	No	+$3	09-21 09:50
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	2	$40	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-24 23:50
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	1	$10	14	0	+14	No	+$4	04-28 09:40
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$6	1,500	0	+1,500	No	-$6	09-19 05:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	1	$4	7	0	+7	No	+$3	04-28 09:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 21:15 UTC	1	$4	133	0	+133	Up	-$4	08-16 21:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 21:40 UTC	2	$2	2	0	+2	Down	+$0	08-16 21:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 21:35 UTC	1	$1	12	0	+12	Down	-$1	08-16 21:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 21:25 UTC	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	-$1	08-16 21:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 21:44:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x0609c6…
10-22 10:46:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	157	80¢	$126	0xebcf91…
10-22 10:46:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	83	80¢	$66	0x8188df…
10-22 10:45:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	138	87¢	$120	0x06f576…
10-22 10:44:50	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	98¢	$77	0x48fb1e…
10-21 11:21:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	82	96¢	$79	0xd64cbf…
10-21 11:21:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$105	0x479a46…
10-21 11:20:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	138	87¢	$120	0xdb0682…
10-08 08:20:17	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	170	86¢	$146	0x875399…
10-05 18:21:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	84¢	$109	0xc1b2c3…
10-05 13:28:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x1b77a7…
10-05 13:15:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa88f8a…
10-05 09:52:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xde2c67…
10-04 08:15:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xb22627…
10-04 07:22:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$1	0xdc3452…
10-04 04:21:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0xbc016b…
10-03 19:03:48	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	192	84¢	$161	0x6cca2d…
10-02 04:05:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	73	84¢	$61	0xec5410…
10-02 03:59:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x8a813e…
10-01 18:42:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0x1324ed…
09-28 16:00:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xb9de4d…
09-28 12:43:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	434	79¢	$343	0xf61a25…
09-27 01:24:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	950	21¢	$199	0x21453b…
09-27 01:06:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	950	23¢	$216	0x12bb62…
09-24 17:06:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,047	77¢	$806	0x2f466b…
09-24 15:39:32	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	917	77¢	$706	0x237433…
09-24 14:02:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	34	77¢	$26	0x080778…
09-24 09:19:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	77¢	$31	0x4c7d2c…
09-24 09:17:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	406	77¢	$313	0x1d8690…
09-24 09:03:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x13bc65…
09-24 05:07:29	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$4	0x6fd4cd…
09-23 21:44:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xa69808…
09-21 09:50:18	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	No	BUY	122	98¢	$119	0x357982…
09-21 09:44:42	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	413	30¢	$124	0xbe6b9e…
09-21 09:41:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	276	45¢	$124	0xac56c9…
09-21 08:23:47	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xcaaea6…
09-21 05:53:00	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	250	99¢	$248	0x5a96f5…
09-20 18:43:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	112	95¢	$106	0x5c4ffb…
09-20 18:43:10	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x807a03…
09-20 18:42:53	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	28	95¢	$27	0x3be987…
09-20 18:42:11	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	344	95¢	$327	0x39aa4f…
09-20 12:21:31	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	500	86¢	$430	0xea33a1…
09-19 19:09:54	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	215	82¢	$176	0x362341…
09-19 19:09:54	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	255	82¢	$209	0x2e6c95…
09-19 19:09:50	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	40	82¢	$33	0x8588bf…
09-19 19:09:48	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x5bd514…
09-19 19:09:20	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0xabd295…
09-19 19:09:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	450	82¢	$369	0x2b8653…
09-19 19:04:50	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	818	81¢	$660	0x8416b8…
09-19 19:04:47	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1,960	81¢	$1,579	0xe3812f…
09-19 19:04:33	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0xf38d1a…
09-19 19:03:54	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	167	81¢	$134	0xebccec…
09-19 19:03:53	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xf43544…
09-19 19:03:53	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1,000	81¢	$806	0x8cbcf6…
09-19 19:03:53	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	550	81¢	$443	0x8a2254…
09-19 19:03:53	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	450	81¢	$363	0x4c47c2…
09-19 19:03:53	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	900	81¢	$725	0x1ee23a…
09-19 19:03:26	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	235	81¢	$189	0x55433f…
09-19 19:03:26	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	167	81¢	$134	0x1e9dcc…
09-19 19:03:24	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	450	81¢	$363	0xc4c1a1…
09-19 19:03:24	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x6c401e…
09-19 19:03:24	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	550	81¢	$443	0x00f571…
09-19 19:02:47	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	450	81¢	$363	0xecc4aa…
09-19 19:02:47	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	550	81¢	$443	0xb94349…
09-19 19:02:47	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x651099…
09-19 19:02:23	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	450	81¢	$363	0xba8610…
09-19 07:39:09	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0xc9013d…
09-19 05:31:03	Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,500	0¢	$6	0xdc9bbf…
09-18 18:39:48	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,354	81¢	$1,097	0xfe7fd4…
09-18 17:45:37	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	699	83¢	$580	0x70d3af…
09-18 17:30:40	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5,000	80¢	$4,000	0x8db4f8…
09-18 17:30:40	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1,301	83¢	$1,080	0x76acb5…
09-18 16:45:36	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	482	82¢	$395	0x4d2cc6…
09-18 16:45:36	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,100	79¢	$869	0x18b5fa…
09-18 16:45:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	13	82¢	$11	0xe27c10…
09-18 16:45:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	505	82¢	$414	0xe25116…
09-18 15:50:39	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,100	78¢	$858	0xeea0f8…
09-18 15:31:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0xf2c1b7…
09-18 15:31:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	970	81¢	$785	0x060810…
09-18 14:41:19	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	62	81¢	$50	0x44205b…
09-18 13:56:18	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xc4ac94…
09-18 13:56:06	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	68	81¢	$55	0x272803…
09-18 13:50:59	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1,850	81¢	$1,497	0xfc2acc…
09-18 13:10:38	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	4,000	77¢	$3,080	0x20b8f4…
09-18 10:10:49	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,100	77¢	$847	0x5b4947…
09-18 09:04:25	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,675	76¢	$1,273	0x228e65…
09-18 00:20:18	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	77¢	$770	0xd2299a…
09-17 20:27:27	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	119	80¢	$95	0xccd796…
09-17 20:20:34	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	294	80¢	$235	0x40c4cc…
09-17 20:03:28	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	31	80¢	$25	0xb22f0d…
09-17 20:02:01	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	556	80¢	$445	0xb2ce6e…
09-17 19:47:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,500	76¢	$1,140	0x1c3ce4…
09-17 19:26:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,000	76¢	$760	0x8968a1…
09-17 17:49:00	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,500	75¢	$1,125	0x1c76ed…
09-17 08:25:15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	500	74¢	$370	0x856dc4…
09-17 08:24:06	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	500	74¢	$370	0x2d38b0…
09-16 01:22:19	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xb81622…
09-15 03:03:28	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x2f789d…
09-14 10:27:19	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?	Yes	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x7a7c75…
09-14 10:22:07	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x2c98ff…