Watchful-Sanity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$312

Unrealized P&L

-$205

Hit rate

20.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

$110

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 07-21 16:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

63% 50% -$133

Sports

35% 0% -$155

Other

2% 0% -$24

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+6,667	$200	1¢	$77	-$123	05-25 10:04
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	+552	$90	4¢	$25	-$66	07-21 16:39
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+2,500	$25	0¢	$9	-$16	07-05 01:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$200	6,667	0	+6,667	open	—	05-25 10:04
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	2	$192	290	290	+0	Max Holloway	-$8	05-25 10:33
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	1	$150	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$150	07-21 16:36
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$148	2,857	1,400	+1,457	No	-$52	07-05 01:59
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$141	3,030	3,030	+0	open	—	07-17 08:19
Trump declares election interference national emergency?	3	$90	552	0	+552	open	—	07-21 16:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$85	113	0	+113	No	+$28	05-25 10:24
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$81	89	0	+89	No	+$8	05-26 02:52
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$50	2,083	0	+2,083	No	-$50	07-05 01:50
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$44	676	0	+676	No	-$44	07-05 02:00
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	1	$25	2,500	0	+2,500	open	—	07-05 01:46
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	2	$20	633	0	+633	Yes	-$20	07-21 16:29
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$19	1,393	0	+1,393	No	-$19	05-26 02:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$5	833	0	+833	No	-$5	05-25 10:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 16:39:27	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x9ef345…
07-21 16:36:06	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x44b445…
07-21 16:29:06	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0xddf774…
07-21 16:27:28	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	321	3¢	$10	0xed6621…
07-17 08:23:49	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	BUY	268	14¢	$38	0xa38ebc…
07-17 08:19:25	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	3,030	1¢	$41	0x72c451…
07-17 08:15:43	Trump declares election interference national emergency?	Yes	BUY	164	14¢	$23	0xe72e8d…
07-05 02:00:08	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	338	6¢	$22	0xd642e3…
07-05 01:59:25	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,400	3¢	$48	0x85212a…
07-05 01:58:19	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	338	6¢	$22	0x4a31d4…
07-05 01:50:38	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,083	2¢	$50	0x81b875…
07-05 01:46:20	Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0xf50a01…
07-05 01:41:02	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,857	3¢	$100	0xf03425…
05-26 02:55:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	624	1¢	$9	0x31d974…
05-26 02:52:29	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	89	91¢	$81	0x38c034…
05-25 10:33:51	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	SELL	290	32¢	$92	0x2c7aed…
05-25 10:24:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	113	75¢	$85	0x93cd17…
05-25 10:16:10	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	769	1¢	$10	0x79b1cb…
05-25 10:15:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	833	1¢	$5	0x62f738…
05-25 10:06:01	UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Conor McGregor	BUY	290	35¢	$100	0x48ab66…
05-25 10:04:50	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	3,030	3¢	$100	0xcc652c…
05-25 10:04:18	Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	6,667	3¢	$200	0xcc0124…