Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

258

Trades (30d)

262

1,177 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$7.66K

$18.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-06-08

last 10-29 17:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 77 days

Categories

Politics

45% 100% +$30

Other

43% 99% +$77

Crypto

8% 54% -$58

Tech

3% 100% +$4

Sports

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 01:00 UTC	142	$230	530	0	+530	Down	-$5	06-10 01:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	102	$229	440	0	+440	Up	-$7	06-15 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 22:45 UTC	67	$144	281	0	+281	Down	-$4	07-26 22:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	41	$137	159	71	+89	Up	-$6	06-14 19:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-10 01:15 UTC	55	$121	246	0	+246	Up	-$15	06-10 01:21
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 23:00 UTC	38	$84	160	0	+160	Up	-$4	07-26 23:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 22:30 UTC	32	$70	131	0	+131	Up	-$4	07-26 22:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-26 20:15 UTC	30	$48	117	0	+117	Down	-$3	07-26 20:26
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-01 06:03
us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-15 20:30
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to BSW or Grüne?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Grüne	+$0	09-21 09:57
will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-04 19:31
Will Jonas Gahr Støre attend King Harald V's funeral?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-09 13:48
will trump say venezuela during hispanic heritage month celebration september 30	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-30 17:45
Will PepsiCo say "Consumer" during earnings call?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-08 12:25
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Uranium" this week?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-23 15:25
will blackrock say infrastructure during earnings call october 14	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-14 11:36
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	09-24 14:47
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-17 04:00
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-23 16:00
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-26 16:00
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by September 30?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-01 06:02
Will Leavitt say "Iran" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	09-01 04:00
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-01 18:18
US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by December 31, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	10-26 22:55
Will Chewy say "Customer" 20+ times during earnings call?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-09 12:14
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-01 04:00
Will Trump say "Merit" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	1	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-28 03:49
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-15 17:58
trump renames ai by september 30	1	$40	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	09-29 21:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 21:14:01	Will Amazon say "International" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x04eedc…
10-29 17:48:05	Will Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x4e1182…
10-29 17:32:01	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x6e3b7d…
10-29 11:30:32	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x10bb20…
10-29 11:28:52	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x8f35d0…
10-29 05:15:08	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa76a4d…
10-29 01:01:17	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xfa502a…
10-29 00:27:35	Will Trump say "Cleveland" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x1acc2f…
10-28 23:36:19	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xc08c5b…
10-28 21:48:07	Will Microsoft say "Gaming" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xb6dd68…
10-28 21:33:20	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x9348aa…
10-28 20:44:14	Will Google say "Youtube" 10+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x793a34…
10-28 20:39:19	Will Google say "Quantum" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x8a1a68…
10-28 19:55:32	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0x1ec1d8…
10-28 19:44:40	Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of October 26?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x06c12c…
10-28 19:22:28	Will Warsh say "Conflict" or "Middle East" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x653725…
10-28 19:17:26	Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x89c34d…
10-28 19:13:40	Will Warsh say "Price" 30+ times during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xc296cd…
10-28 18:30:47	Will no statement by Warsh happen during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbd6f0a…
10-28 08:51:43	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x21e895…
10-28 03:49:19	Will Trump say "Merit" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x48068f…
10-28 02:09:20	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x16329a…
10-28 00:42:51	Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	No	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xb0b806…
10-28 00:19:11	Will Trump say "Korea" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x1ee4e4…
10-27 22:48:38	Will Robinhood say "Weekend" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x22deba…
10-27 21:12:03	Will Robinhood say "Options" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x52d1e2…
10-27 19:41:38	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Corpus Christi, Texas not air?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x772bd0…
10-27 12:45:53	Will Coca-Cola say "Consumer" 15+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x807058…
10-27 12:42:36	Will Coca-Cola say "Growth" 15+ times during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa00332…
10-27 12:31:08	Will the earnings call not air?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xc971f3…
10-27 05:37:14	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x67db66…
10-27 00:47:20	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x8bacab…
10-27 00:36:39	Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x96df05…
10-27 00:33:12	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xe20022…
10-26 23:54:23	Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Mississippi?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc0902b…
10-26 23:18:06	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x7c8839…
10-26 22:55:09	US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x1a031e…
10-26 18:13:47	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xaa3ca3…
10-26 18:13:47	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x3e6478…
10-26 13:33:41	Will Verizon say "5G" during earnings call?	No	BUY	12	97¢	$12	0xcb59f2…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xc0ac9b…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "Marxist" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0xa7135b…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "China" or "Chinese" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x87e53a…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "Electric" or "Electricity" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x2fbd92…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "Canada" 4+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x2088cd…
10-25 21:47:33	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x0eab77…
10-25 21:37:24	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xf7c01d…
10-25 21:32:17	Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in Michigan?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x038b54…
10-25 21:01:53	Will Donald Trump visit Michigan before the midterms?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x68edb1…
10-25 19:34:39	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in Michigan not air?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x271c7d…
10-25 05:50:33	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x866b7f…
10-24 23:21:03	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xe75db9…
10-23 19:09:03	Will Trump say "Democrat" 5+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x79e3e3…
10-23 18:52:00	Will Trump say "Six Seven" in October?	Yes	BUY	33	99¢	$33	0xdf9be5…
10-23 16:00:03	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x3a3085…
10-23 16:00:03	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0d7c83…
10-23 16:00:02	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1420 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$38	0x47f11a…
10-23 15:25:15	Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Uranium" this week?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x6b1bb5…
10-23 15:02:53	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xd05b4e…
10-22 21:20:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x006100…
10-22 00:44:51	Will Trump say "Crime" or "Criminal" 12+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x856d4f…
10-22 00:44:51	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x050f16…
10-22 00:19:21	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0x280df6…
10-21 23:33:08	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x79056a…
10-21 23:10:00	Will Trump's Midterm Rally in South Carolina not air?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x38b456…
10-21 22:58:00	Will Tesla say "Flying Car" during earnings call?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x980704…
10-21 22:27:50	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 21?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x4419c4…
10-21 22:06:24	Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x1e027d…
10-21 20:01:15	Will no Lemonade Stand episode air?	No	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x1706fe…
10-21 16:46:33	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 65% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xac4585…
10-21 11:48:05	Will Andy Burnham say "NHS" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x33c3dc…
10-21 09:33:32	Will Trump say "Job" 18+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xeaa6a4…
10-21 05:01:50	Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x962594…
10-21 05:01:50	Another critical Cloudflare incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x781f62…
10-21 05:01:50	Another critical Cloudflare incident by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x2f16c7…
10-21 01:30:51	Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xe6400d…
10-21 01:30:51	Will Trump say "Two Percent" or "2%" during his Midterm Rally in North Carolina?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0x8c9bf0…
10-20 20:52:26	Will Netflix say "World Cup" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	22	99¢	$22	0x0bcfe7…
10-20 18:38:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x35b6fc…
10-20 01:40:27	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x7d025c…
10-20 00:30:03	Will Trump say "Biden" or "Kamala" or "Obama" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kansas?	Yes	BUY	21	99¢	$21	0x4f7a52…
10-20 00:18:47	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xb45374…
10-17 21:25:00	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 15?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x9f3482…
10-17 19:51:59	Will Trump say "KFC" or "Chicken" during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0xecea0d…
10-17 19:51:59	Will Trump say "Data Center" or "Electric" or "Electricity" during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x996931…
10-17 19:45:00	Will Trump say "Hell" 15+ times during his Midterm Rally in Kentucky?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x47f61a…
10-17 17:09:24	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xb028ac…
10-17 04:00:02	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x33d08d…
10-16 23:00:18	Will Trump say "Star" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	38	95¢	$36	0x4bf588…
10-16 02:00:55	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	Yes	BUY	39	98¢	$38	0xe0d96a…
10-16 01:12:54	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	39	88¢	$34	0xe90382…
10-15 20:30:56	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 15	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x45ccbe…
10-15 09:04:22	will anyone say cartman 5 times during south park e3 s29 20261014	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x5f39e0…
10-15 06:05:49	will tsmc say capex during earnings call october 15	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0xf37b42…
10-15 04:16:46	will trump say rural during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x0df7ad…
10-15 02:48:14	will trump say antifa during his midterm rally in montana october 14	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xcb2d56…
10-14 21:32:48	will trump say hell 14 times during his midterm rally in arizona	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x16e154…
10-14 19:23:43	will be said nordic be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast october 14 20261006222125574	No	BUY	24	74¢	$18	0xd5382e…
10-14 19:23:33	will be said legality be said during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast october 14 20261006222125574	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x88d88e…
10-14 19:20:36	will be said ai or artificial intelligence be said 15 times during the next episode of the lemonade stand podcast october 14 20261006222125574	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xe09c55…