Humiliating-Civilian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$482

Unrealized P&L

+$327

Hit rate

84.3%

Resolved

226

Trades

922

lifetime

Volume

$210.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$228

Open exposure

$8.34K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-30 17:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

49% 74% +$1,310

Politics

46% 79% -$251

Sports

2% 26% -$346

Crypto

2% 60% -$232

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 48 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		+9,075	$7,180	82¢	$7.5K	+$307	10-29 17:36
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes		+1,000	$834	85¢	$854	+$20	10-09 05:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	104	$57.9K	39,606	30,531	+9,075	open	—	10-29 17:36
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	19	$20.0K	10,781	10,781	+0	open	—	09-16 20:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	19	$11.6K	7,656	5,650	+2,006	No	+$21	08-28 02:17
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	9	$6.0K	3,564	2,562	+1,002	No	+$7	08-28 02:12
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	29	$4.9K	3,461	2,461	+1,000	open	—	10-09 05:59
Iran leadership change by August 31?	8	$4.6K	3,106	1,600	+1,506	No	+$31	08-28 09:26
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$4.4K	2,533	2,533	+0	No	+$348	07-04 04:15
Iran leadership change by October 31?	5	$3.5K	1,752	1,752	+0	open	—	10-30 17:15
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	5	$3.4K	3,028	933	+2,096	No	+$86	09-23 23:43
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	11	$3.2K	3,403	0	+3,403	No	+$163	07-23 20:12
Will LI.FI launch a token by September 30, 2026?	8	$3.2K	3,290	0	+3,290	No	+$70	09-23 20:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	3	$2.9K	2,000	1,000	+1,000	No	-$7	08-10 21:59
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	2	$2.7K	2,564	2,564	+0	Yes	+$0	04-08 10:46
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 total 3pt5	2	$2.7K	2,265	2,237	+28	Under	+$11	04-08 11:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	8	$2.5K	1,277	1,277	+0	No	+$35	07-04 19:12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	7	$2.3K	1,768	767	+1,001	No	+$127	08-28 02:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	8	$2.2K	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	07-23 13:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	10	$2.2K	1,550	1,550	+0	No	+$232	07-04 05:52
iran full airspace closure by august 15	6	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	No	+$48	08-10 20:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	3	$1.8K	1,850	0	+1,850	No	+$50	08-28 02:12
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	8	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-16 23:36
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?	7	$1.6K	1,330	1,330	+0	Yes	+$215	05-16 17:47
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	8	$1.6K	965	965	+0	Yes	+$21	07-07 16:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	18	$1.5K	1,135	1,135	+0	No	+$6	08-27 14:13
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in August?	4	$1.5K	1,001	453	+548	No	+$1	08-30 23:48
Will Ink launch a token by September 30, 2026?	9	$1.4K	1,625	0	+1,625	No	+$191	09-07 23:08
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	5	$1.4K	775	775	+0	open	—	10-24 14:07
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	7	$1.4K	747	747	+0	No	-$14	07-13 23:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	12	$1.3K	723	723	+0	No	+$31	05-29 23:20
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	7	$1.3K	682	682	+0	No	+$47	07-04 17:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 17:15:46	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	1,209	100¢	$1,204	0x23a01e…
10-29 17:36:14	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	400	78¢	$312	0xf0beca…
10-27 08:17:06	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x6ca6fd…
10-26 22:31:00	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	84¢	$42	0x22fcac…
10-25 23:49:08	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x9bbd7c…
10-25 23:48:56	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xf683f0…
10-25 23:48:47	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0x467542…
10-25 23:48:36	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	76¢	$76	0xd748b3…
10-25 23:48:24	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	75¢	$75	0xb8c836…
10-25 23:26:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	173	81¢	$140	0x7ba324…
10-25 23:24:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,591	9¢	$148	0x441328…
10-25 22:55:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	24¢	$9	0xdf088d…
10-25 22:55:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x182068…
10-25 22:54:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x4c9ca1…
10-25 22:54:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x666c1c…
10-25 22:54:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x3cc2b2…
10-25 22:46:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	49	40¢	$20	0x5dbfa9…
10-25 22:46:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x385c23…
10-25 22:45:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xbec891…
10-25 22:45:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x939d2e…
10-25 22:43:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	58	33¢	$19	0x6d5cdf…
10-25 22:42:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	81	31¢	$25	0x7e3497…
10-25 22:41:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xf7131f…
10-25 22:26:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	435	23¢	$100	0x403960…
10-25 22:21:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,002	79¢	$792	0x42cc7a…
10-25 10:01:18	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	SELL	543	98¢	$535	0x8e985c…
10-24 15:58:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,500	81¢	$2,025	0x582b8f…
10-24 14:07:54	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xe13db2…
10-24 14:07:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x0d8979…
10-24 14:07:35	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x19596c…
10-24 14:07:27	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	365	98¢	$357	0x9db63c…
10-24 14:07:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	211	97¢	$205	0xaae25b…
10-24 00:55:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	684	98¢	$672	0xc5e5ce…
10-22 00:17:15	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	1,252	98¢	$1,230	0x0fcd1d…
10-22 00:15:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	684	89¢	$612	0x0b2d33…
10-21 19:54:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0xbc0cc5…
10-21 09:18:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47	87¢	$41	0x18f0b4…
10-21 09:17:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	47	88¢	$41	0x6b1dfd…
10-20 18:52:30	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	549	91¢	$500	0x65aea6…
10-17 00:34:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	143	94¢	$135	0x3ad8cb…
10-17 00:33:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	73	94¢	$68	0xc841cd…
10-16 23:36:44	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	500	88¢	$440	0x272023…
10-16 21:23:56	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	500	88¢	$440	0xf66496…
10-16 15:14:58	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,204	75¢	$900	0xf58039…
10-16 01:42:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	85¢	$4,250	0x55c8a1…
10-14 15:10:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	86¢	$256	0xad8139…
10-13 05:34:06	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0x9becdd…
10-11 13:43:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0x691a61…
10-11 12:46:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	231	83¢	$192	0x7894f9…
10-11 12:46:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	57	83¢	$47	0x489305…
10-11 12:43:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xeab29b…
10-11 12:12:15	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	35	83¢	$29	0xcccccb…
10-11 12:00:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x2585f9…
10-11 11:54:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	28	83¢	$23	0x805ef2…
10-11 11:43:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$0	0x53c856…
10-11 11:43:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	0	83¢	$0	0xabef4e…
10-11 11:43:26	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	3,635	83¢	$3,017	0x6fe0af…
10-09 05:59:55	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xf5724e…
10-09 02:50:39	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	250	88¢	$220	0xe2b2de…
10-08 23:55:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x10bd90…
10-08 23:54:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x5df457…
10-08 23:54:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0x36ee64…
10-08 23:54:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xcbe72e…
10-08 23:54:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x38263f…
10-08 23:54:18	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	65	98¢	$64	0x9c5feb…
10-08 23:54:05	Iran leadership change by October 31?	No	BUY	435	98¢	$425	0x6a59fe…
10-08 23:53:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x560731…
10-08 23:51:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0xa2b44e…
10-08 23:48:09	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x486276…
10-08 23:46:47	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	281	89¢	$250	0xc7994d…
09-29 23:14:18	Will TownSquare launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x5c0e43…
09-29 23:12:42	Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	203	99¢	$200	0xa24337…
09-29 23:12:03	Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	141	99¢	$140	0x7c3b94…
09-29 23:11:17	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0xf113ca…
09-29 23:11:06	Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	253	99¢	$250	0x7d1ad7…
09-29 23:10:29	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x973830…
09-29 23:10:15	Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	201	99¢	$200	0x36ef82…
09-29 23:08:54	Will Fuse launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	99¢	$60	0xf948b9…
09-29 23:08:29	Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	109	98¢	$107	0x08ffbc…
09-29 23:08:12	Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	109	98¢	$107	0xcea615…
09-29 23:07:59	Will Nous Research launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	612	98¢	$600	0x50c110…
09-23 23:43:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	1,861	99¢	$1,850	0xa0df28…
09-23 21:13:07	Will Perpl launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	176	99¢	$175	0x36645a…
09-23 21:12:37	Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	113	98¢	$111	0x1214a4…
09-23 21:11:56	Will Hylo launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	224	99¢	$222	0xdd6fbc…
09-23 21:11:44	Will Exponent launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	224	99¢	$222	0x0f016a…
09-23 21:11:11	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	224	99¢	$222	0x162436…
09-23 21:10:50	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	112	99¢	$111	0xc35439…
09-23 21:10:17	Will Hibachi launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	114	98¢	$111	0xa39110…
09-23 21:09:14	Will Rho Labs launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	114	98¢	$111	0x661e72…
09-23 21:04:46	Will Puffpaw launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x8f4053…
09-23 21:02:32	Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x2597d0…
09-23 21:02:11	Will Oro launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x6886b6…
09-23 21:02:01	Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xfb3181…
09-23 21:01:49	Will Chaos Labs launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x0f5072…
09-23 21:01:32	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0xaf9f05…
09-23 21:01:14	Will Perpl launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0x1ee2f3…
09-23 21:00:35	Will Valantis launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0xf660b9…
09-23 21:00:07	Will Pluralis launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x9bbe39…
09-23 20:59:37	Will Catena launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x0ec07b…