Miserly-Patentee — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.32K

Unrealized P&L

+$80

Hit rate

79.0%

Resolved

Trades

254

lifetime

Volume

$43.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$171

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-03-25

last 05-25 01:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Politics

73% 45% -$923

Other

23% 37% -$271

Sports

2% 57% +$236

Tech

1% 0% -$174

Crypto

1% 50% -$190

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-25).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes		-201	-$102	11¢	$-22	+$80	05-09 05:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	20	$16.2K	11,216	11,216	+0	Yes	+$198	04-19 09:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	7	$5.0K	5,112	5,112	+0	No	+$98	04-22 08:26
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	11	$2.6K	31,185	169	+31,016	Yes	-$2,338	04-07 15:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	8	$2.3K	2,542	2,542	+0	No	+$361	04-28 22:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	21	$1.7K	1,671	1,671	+0	No	+$321	05-01 14:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	5	$1.6K	1,065	1,065	+0	No	+$343	04-29 13:51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	4	$1.1K	2,546	207	+2,339	Yes	-$886	05-08 18:57
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	29	$1.1K	0	4,072	-4,072	No	+$1,081	05-25 00:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$1.1K	870	870	+0	No	+$321	05-01 14:13
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	11	$961	1,091	1,045	+46	Yes	+$451	04-25 18:19
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$844	830	830	+0	No	+$15	05-08 18:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$766	1,600	0	+1,600	Yes	-$766	05-08 18:51
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	5	$706	680	680	+0	No	+$298	05-01 14:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 23 2026	5	$649	1,145	0	+1,145	No	+$496	04-21 17:35
James Comey arrested by April 29?	11	$576	3,136	590	+2,546	Yes	-$164	04-29 19:03
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	2	$522	415	415	+0	Yaroslav Amosov	-$8	05-09 05:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	8	$510	975	975	+0	Yes	-$14	05-09 05:29
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$506	317	317	+0	No	+$106	04-25 20:30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	1	$500	704	0	+704	No	+$204	04-21 16:46
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	3	$477	340	340	+0	Yes	+$201	05-03 16:32
James Comey arrested by May 15?	2	$360	2,476	0	+2,476	Yes	-$360	04-29 08:38
James Comey arrested by April 30?	4	$336	1,215	0	+1,215	Yes	-$336	04-29 17:41
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	5	$326	1,042	1,042	+0	No	-$174	05-24 16:29
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	5	$313	1,000	1,000	+0	No	-$187	05-09 05:30
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	10	$278	9,289	8,121	+1,168	Yes	-$169	04-30 21:42
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	2	$218	315	315	+0	No	+$138	05-06 11:30
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	3	$203	371	371	+0	Yes	-$35	05-09 05:13
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	7	$175	662	662	+0	Yes	-$172	05-01 18:27
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	2	$159	117	117	+0	No	+$63	05-06 20:57
Thunder vs. Spurs	3	$138	215	215	+0	Spurs	-$47	05-25 01:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-25 01:29:25	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	SELL	215	21¢	$45	0x7fa9ec…
05-25 00:59:54	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5	Over	SELL	81	5¢	$4	0x7feefc…
05-25 00:25:15	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	216	22¢	$47	0x5c7535…
05-24 22:34:45	Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5	Over	BUY	81	32¢	$26	0xdada57…
05-24 22:27:20	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	55	43¢	$23	0xf50d30…
05-24 22:24:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x7ddc57…
05-24 22:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	152	28¢	$43	0x4be134…
05-24 22:21:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x786b88…
05-24 22:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xc882a1…
05-24 22:19:47	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	160	43¢	$69	0xfb2e93…
05-24 21:44:43	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x1d3196…
05-24 21:44:43	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x172f10…
05-24 21:40:52	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x373857…
05-24 21:35:18	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x63632c…
05-24 21:33:49	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x9138c4…
05-24 21:13:34	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x414099…
05-24 20:50:09	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	89	22¢	$20	0x945c13…
05-24 20:48:22	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x146819…
05-24 20:45:45	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x61d5f9…
05-24 20:45:45	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	67	22¢	$15	0x09d474…
05-24 20:45:03	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	22¢	$2	0x7a745c…
05-24 16:29:21	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	923	7¢	$65	0x40cfaf…
05-24 04:14:40	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	72	10¢	$7	0xa2ffc9…
05-23 13:30:43	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	42¢	$19	0x77b158…
05-23 13:29:54	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x003b8b…
05-23 11:45:06	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15,000	1¢	$90	0x4d4836…
05-23 11:45:02	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	5¢	$102	0xbc085f…
05-23 11:15:44	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	15	10¢	$2	0x31d804…
05-23 08:27:42	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	42¢	$29	0x52a112…
05-23 07:43:27	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0xf88387…
05-23 07:33:37	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	42¢	$37	0x9d4522…
05-23 07:21:57	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	42¢	$23	0x3e1d54…
05-22 23:21:35	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	Yes	SELL	32	10¢	$3	0x49e13a…
05-22 14:25:33	Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs	Xtreme Gaming	BUY	3	44¢	$1	0x4abf09…
05-09 05:30:25	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Yaroslav Amosov	SELL	415	62¢	$257	0xac87f3…
05-09 05:30:10	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	2,000	1¢	$20	0x9a7987…
05-09 05:30:04	Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	878	4¢	$32	0x8eb8dd…
05-09 05:29:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	666	24¢	$158	0xc6d074…
05-09 05:15:59	Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	SELL	201	51¢	$102	0x39c153…
05-09 05:15:47	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,000	3¢	$102	0xcce8cb…
05-09 05:13:20	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	314	20¢	$64	0xdf0965…
05-09 05:13:08	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	49	65¢	$32	0x00542d…
05-09 05:13:01	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	SELL	97	10¢	$10	0xcf05cc…
05-09 05:12:54	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	SELL	851	2¢	$14	0x6c8442…
05-08 18:57:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	BUY	1,083	25¢	$267	0x129107…
05-08 18:51:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	400	41¢	$163	0x804b02…
05-08 18:48:47	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	660	44¢	$287	0xc1ddee…
05-08 18:46:27	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	57	35¢	$20	0x96f190…
05-08 18:26:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	294	58¢	$172	0xf3b24c…
05-08 18:26:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd12258…
05-08 18:26:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	241	59¢	$141	0x59be21…
05-08 18:25:01	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	SELL	611	9¢	$55	0xb71ce5…
05-08 18:24:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	520	51¢	$265	0xa871f7…
05-07 10:22:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x79d127…
05-07 10:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x33fcd9…
05-07 09:27:05	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	371	32¢	$119	0x15476d…
05-06 21:08:11	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Yaroslav Amosov	BUY	415	64¢	$265	0xa2805d…
05-06 20:57:44	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	No	SELL	117	95¢	$111	0x1db15c…
05-06 19:42:24	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	No	SELL	533	2¢	$9	0xd6c05b…
05-06 19:06:11	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	132	38¢	$50	0xbca1d3…
05-06 17:42:26	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?	No	BUY	117	41¢	$48	0x27bb76…
05-06 17:36:00	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	611	9¢	$55	0xded948…
05-06 15:15:58	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	210	45¢	$94	0x2305a0…
05-06 11:40:28	Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?	No	BUY	533	6¢	$32	0x727a34…
05-06 11:30:54	Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	315	57¢	$178	0xb6f245…
05-06 10:28:08	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	311	8¢	$25	0xc44b0d…
05-06 09:53:04	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0xfb4922…
05-06 09:47:26	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	94	5¢	$4	0x530c60…
05-06 08:36:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x041795…
05-06 08:33:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	295	53¢	$156	0x464255…
05-06 08:30:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	29¢	$5	0x34dee1…
05-06 08:29:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x3a02eb…
05-06 08:25:32	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	93	44¢	$41	0x59296c…
05-06 08:24:20	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	41	29¢	$12	0xdec6da…
05-06 08:24:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	24	29¢	$7	0x46d650…
05-06 08:24:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	29¢	$8	0x43a7bd…
05-06 08:22:50	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	375	2¢	$7	0x1f6751…
05-06 08:22:30	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	31¢	$51	0x564fe4…
05-06 08:10:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xda0076…
05-06 08:03:04	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	31¢	$31	0x9ba83a…
05-05 21:56:12	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xc3ea06…
05-03 19:30:34	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	SELL	244	1¢	$3	0x436d50…
05-03 17:10:44	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	244	43¢	$105	0xf90a8e…
05-03 16:53:24	Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs	Natus Vincere	BUY	133	21¢	$28	0xdf089a…
05-03 16:32:00	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	SELL	340	100¢	$339	0xdf8edb…
05-03 13:45:30	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	123	40¢	$49	0x869a8e…
05-03 13:23:14	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	BUY	217	41¢	$89	0xc34b97…
05-02 14:56:24	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	713	32¢	$229	0xbb585d…
05-02 12:38:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb18cf3…
05-01 18:27:14	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	662	0¢	$2	0x7b87dd…
05-01 14:59:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	59¢	$8	0x4bf991…
05-01 14:57:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xe2f815…
05-01 14:43:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0xac1f85…
05-01 14:37:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	59¢	$2	0xc1c594…
05-01 14:34:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	243	59¢	$143	0x28871a…
05-01 14:28:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xc870af…
05-01 14:25:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	59¢	$27	0xf0f941…
05-01 14:20:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x9b26c4…
05-01 14:18:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xeffc1d…
05-01 14:17:28	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0x4c66e3…