Frightening-Worth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$165

Unrealized P&L

+$38

Hit rate

31.3%

Resolved

318

Trades

398

lifetime

Volume

$1.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$257

25 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 11-09 23:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 95 days

Categories

Other

57% 15% -$95

Sports

35% 25% -$42

Politics

8% 27% -$24

Tech

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (25) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?	No	+100	$76	85¢	$85	+$9	11-09 20:36
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+50	$18	72¢	$36	+$18	08-20 11:01
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+30	$9	98¢	$29	+$20	10-24 08:08
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+100	$18	18¢	$18	+$0	10-21 22:26
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	+16	$10	98¢	$15	+$5	10-25 00:41
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+47	$10	30¢	$14	+$4	11-01 23:10
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+20	$5	64¢	$13	+$7	10-28 17:58
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+85	$5	6¢	$5	$0	11-09 20:40
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	-5	-$5	99¢	$-5	$0	10-17 12:48
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+30	$5	14¢	$4	-$1	11-02 14:57
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	+11	$5	38¢	$4	-$1	10-17 17:31
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+12	-$2	30¢	$4	+$5	11-06 12:56
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+20	$2	17¢	$3	+$2	11-01 12:31
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+312	$10	1¢	$3	-$7	08-13 10:01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	+40	$5	8¢	$3	-$2	07-24 12:50
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	Yes	+59	$10	5¢	$3	-$7	06-05 03:12
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+28	$5	10¢	$3	-$2	05-30 15:37
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	+38	$3	6¢	$2	-$1	11-09 20:33
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+32	$5	7¢	$2	-$3	10-18 08:20
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+79	$2	1¢	$1	-$1	11-05 16:14
Heat vs. Jazz	Jazz	+4	$1	20¢	$1	$0	11-09 20:30
Nuggets vs. Rockets	Nuggets	+5	$2	12¢	$1	-$1	11-09 20:30
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+83	$5	1¢	$1	-$4	10-14 07:17
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+50	$3	0¢	$0	-$3	08-23 09:12
Wizards vs. Pistons	Wizards	+5	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	11-09 20:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 23:27:55	Will Michael Carrick be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0x24eceb…
11-09 22:30:13	Sandro Mamukelashvili: Points O/U 14.5	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb3caa5…
11-09 20:40:09	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	85	6¢	$5	0x6417b2…
11-09 20:36:22	Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x39bbba…
11-09 20:35:12	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	161	94¢	$151	0x6680af…
11-09 20:33:09	Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?	Yes	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xd64985…
11-09 20:31:03	Wizards vs. Pistons	Wizards	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x53768a…
11-09 20:30:42	Heat vs. Jazz	Jazz	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x36114c…
11-09 20:30:10	Nuggets vs. Rockets	Nuggets	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xa4e91a…
11-08 00:21:01	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5208aa…
11-07 18:38:12	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x333fb1…
11-07 14:24:09	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 1 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x0bc32c…
11-07 14:24:03	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 2 Aston Villa FC?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x0dc149…
11-07 14:23:22	Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-11-07?	Yes	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x283ee1…
11-07 14:23:15	Will Arsenal FC vs. Hull City AFC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9190b8…
11-06 12:56:09	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xbf70a3…
11-05 16:14:42	Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	3¢	$2	0xfb243f…
11-04 16:45:51	Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-11-04?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x32a047…
11-03 22:33:37	Mavericks vs. Spurs	Mavericks	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb9e07c…
11-03 22:33:27	Lakers vs. Kings	Kings	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xfa36e1…
11-03 22:32:51	Timberwolves vs. Rockets	Timberwolves	BUY	15	28¢	$4	0x3d1a76…
11-03 22:32:01	Bulls vs. Knicks	Bulls	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf66d17…
11-03 22:31:49	Bucks vs. Celtics	Bucks	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x793cd1…
11-03 21:32:52	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xf4bd74…
11-03 21:30:54	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 2 - 3 AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x40501d…
11-03 18:00:27	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 2 AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9c90cf…
11-03 18:00:07	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 0 AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x510769…
11-03 18:00:00	Exact Score: Manchester United FC 0 - 1 AS Roma?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x7a845b…
11-03 17:59:40	Spread: AS Roma (-1.5)	AS Roma	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbef55f…
11-03 06:30:07	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0xa9d20e…
11-02 14:57:52	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	16¢	$5	0x5b0c93…
11-02 14:54:51	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x43d585…
11-01 23:11:18	Bulls vs. 76ers	Bulls	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x4612c4…
11-01 23:10:33	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xf2f8fe…
11-01 12:33:30	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe6fcd5…
11-01 12:33:18	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x5c0065…
11-01 12:33:06	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5bd973…
11-01 12:32:52	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 1 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x2c4357…
11-01 12:32:46	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x49172a…
11-01 12:31:54	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x230cc8…
11-01 10:08:46	Exact Score: Liverpool FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xea5ffd…
10-31 16:49:30	Will Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xdc76ca…
10-31 16:48:58	Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xef6145…
10-31 01:05:34	Pacers vs. Heat	Pacers	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0xe57294…
10-29 17:41:46	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x4d2650…
10-28 17:58:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xc6b1f1…
10-28 09:37:22	Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x5fac10…
10-28 09:35:20	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xeab30e…
10-26 20:40:30	Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x62cfb6…
10-25 21:59:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	22	45¢	$10	0x3eeb68…
10-25 21:17:26	Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	59	12¢	$7	0xf07b26…
10-25 19:55:59	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xda76ed…
10-25 08:14:00	Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xede5b6…
10-25 07:15:15	Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xcaa0c4…
10-25 01:11:09	Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xef7e1c…
10-25 00:42:24	Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0xb0bcf7…
10-25 00:41:54	Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 2-5%?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x50d6ca…
10-25 00:41:32	Will the Student List win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xa7b638…
10-25 00:41:05	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xc1f89b…
10-25 00:39:56	Clippers vs. Thunder	Clippers	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x76db3b…
10-25 00:39:39	Pelicans vs. Nuggets	Pelicans	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xda318d…
10-25 00:39:17	Warriors vs. Suns	Warriors	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x519254…
10-25 00:38:33	Spurs vs. Mavericks	Mavericks	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xfb6841…
10-24 08:33:35	Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xed6397…
10-24 08:28:53	Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x53382b…
10-24 08:08:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x7a2d7d…
10-24 00:54:39	Grizzlies vs. Warriors	Grizzlies	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x456ba0…
10-24 00:54:18	Rockets vs. Spurs	Rockets	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xf1e48e…
10-24 00:53:32	Knicks vs. Celtics	Knicks	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x2349e8…
10-21 22:26:24	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xd13822…
10-21 21:55:44	Nuggets vs. Thunder	Nuggets	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x88ba4e…
10-21 21:55:30	Warriors vs. Lakers	Warriors	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xe27d72…
10-21 21:55:17	Mavericks vs. Rockets	Mavericks	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd70adc…
10-21 20:19:38	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x192701…
10-21 07:13:39	Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0xffb629…
10-21 07:11:59	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xe6adff…
10-20 20:55:09	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 4 - 3 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd2d4f8…
10-20 20:48:57	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 4 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0x38f460…
10-20 20:46:26	Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbd42e0…
10-20 19:17:44	Manchester City FC vs. AEK: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xdbf665…
10-20 14:58:53	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xb23e9d…
10-20 14:58:20	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6cbc06…
10-20 14:58:09	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0bb31e…
10-20 14:57:47	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xdf2e61…
10-20 14:57:33	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x7dcacc…
10-20 14:53:30	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 1 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xaa6503…
10-20 14:53:15	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	74	3¢	$2	0x68d474…
10-20 14:53:02	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x3ee0df…
10-20 14:52:51	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 FC Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0xc1c412…
10-20 14:52:32	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: Neither team to score first?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x488457…
10-20 14:52:15	Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0xb175ab…
10-20 14:45:48	Will SSC Napoli vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xb32aa8…
10-20 14:45:29	Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-10-20?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xb8af95…
10-20 14:43:11	Will Manchester City FC vs. AEK end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	44	9¢	$4	0xb3948b…
10-20 14:42:32	Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Slavia Praha end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x3b69af…
10-18 15:28:06	Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x1e2e25…
10-18 15:27:05	AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5	Under	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x6edebe…
10-18 15:26:03	Will SS Lazio win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x21424c…
10-18 11:14:36	Will Udinese Calcio vs. US Lecce end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x32db6f…
10-18 08:20:51	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,250	0¢	$5	0x0c1728…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
No one announced as next James Bond?	3	$275	161	161	+0	open	—	11-09 20:35
Robert Pattinson announced as next James Bond?	1	$76	100	0	+100	open	—	11-09 20:36
ucl crv hbs 2026 08 11 team to advance	3	$46	38	38	+0	MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva	+$27	08-11 19:38
will trabzonspor qualify for the league phase of the 2026 27 uefa europa league 20260724202059080	1	$32	50	0	+50	No	-$32	08-20 09:24
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	3	$31	62	50	+12	open	—	11-06 12:56
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	2	$24	109	109	+0	No	+$14	06-09 02:45
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	2	$23	19	18	+0	Yes	+$14	04-07 21:00
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	1	$20	30	0	+30	Yes	+$10	06-23 23:09
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	2	$19	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	10-29 17:41
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	1	$18	100	0	+100	open	—	10-21 22:26
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	1	$18	50	0	+50	open	—	08-20 11:01
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?	2	$17	59	59	+0	open	—	10-25 21:17
Will Michael Carrick be the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026-27?	2	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	11-09 23:27
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$16	10	10	+0	Yes	+$3	04-12 20:13
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	1	$15	75	0	+75	Nuggets	-$15	04-27 16:37
nba den min 2026 04 23	2	$15	566	0	+566	Timberwolves	-$15	04-24 03:32
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	2	$15	312	5	+308	open	—	10-17 12:48
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$15	22	22	+0	Yes	+$5	10-25 21:59
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	2	$15	50	50	+0	No	-$13	10-28 09:35
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	1	$14	47	0	+47	No	-$14	08-25 08:01
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	2	$14	204	204	+0	Yes	-$6	05-03 00:40
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$12	25	8	+17	Yes	+$4	07-18 22:41
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	2	$11	28	28	+0	No	+$7	07-16 06:17
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	2	$11	18	18	+0	No	-$9	05-30 18:00
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5	1	$10	100	0	+100	Under	-$10	04-28 16:11
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 229.5	1	$10	40	0	+40	Under	-$10	04-26 02:21
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome?	2	$10	62	62	+0	No	+$0	06-14 03:18
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?	2	$10	903	0	+903	No	-$10	06-09 02:46
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	10-25 00:41
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5	1	$10	40	0	+40	Under	-$10	05-30 15:28