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Realized P&L (30d)
-$175
Unrealized P&L
+$19
Hit rate
23.1%
Resolved (30d)
204
Trades (30d)
735
3,351 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$6.03K
$25.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$121
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 11-02 04:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 97 days
Categories
Other
73% 34% -$560
Politics
18% 30% -$105
Sports
4% 32% -$25
Tech
2% 50% +$4
Crypto
2% 50% +$1
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting? No +20 $16 95¢ $19 +$3 11-01 13:42
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? No +20 $17 80¢ $16 $0 10-01 21:56
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West? No +20 $6 58¢ $12 +$6 11-01 23:58
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026? No +10 $6 93¢ $9 +$3 10-19 20:47
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West? Yes +20 $14 42¢ $8 -$6 11-01 23:57
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? No +4 $2 100¢ $4 +$3 09-24 09:01
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +5 $2 88¢ $4 +$2 09-22 12:47
Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2027? No +5 $3 87¢ $4 +$1 10-31 16:54
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +4 $3 92¢ $4 +$1 10-22 15:06
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? No +4 $3 93¢ $4 +$1 10-10 16:26
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes +20 $3 20¢ $4 +$1 10-01 21:55
Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%? No +4 $3 78¢ $3 +$0 09-18 03:47
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes +5 $2 66¢ $3 +$1 09-27 14:23
Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the December meeting? No +3 $2 98¢ $3 +$1 10-31 11:33
Will Josh Allen have 13.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes +3 $2 74¢ $2 +$0 10-25 20:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +3 $1 92¢ $2 +$1 10-19 12:40
Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +3 $2 80¢ $2 +$0 10-26 14:51
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -1,000 -$4 0¢ $-2 +$2 07-07 14:22
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 10-30 15:43
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? No +3 $3 64¢ $2 -$1 10-19 13:07
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No +2 $1 80¢ $1 +$0 10-12 10:27
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026 No +2 $1 67¢ $1 +$0 10-16 20:32
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1 $1 92¢ $1 +$0 09-25 22:07
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027? No +1 $2 82¢ $1 -$1 10-30 00:01
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? No +2 $1 34¢ $1 $0 10-17 18:13
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes +1 $1 74¢ $1 $0 10-21 18:02
Will "Werwulf" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? No +1 $1 56¢ $1 +$0 10-15 12:01
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +1 $1 90¢ $1 +$0 10-20 21:02
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +2 $1 35¢ $1 $0 10-02 22:49
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy? No +1 $1 82¢ $1 +$0 10-28 04:40