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Realized P&L (7d)
-$93
Unrealized P&L
-$6
Hit rate
21.8%
Resolved (7d)
110
Trades (7d)
67
3,351 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$483
$25.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$68
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-21
last 11-02 04:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 91 days
Categories
Other
73% 34% -$550
Politics
18% 30% -$100
Sports
4% 32% -$25
Tech
2% 62% +$9
Crypto
2% 50% +$1
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
67 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? No +20 $17 81¢ $16 $0 10-01 21:56
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat? No +4 $2 99¢ $4 +$3 09-24 09:01
Will Roma reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal? Yes +40 $19 11¢ $4 -$14 09-10 03:44
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +5 $2 82¢ $4 +$2 09-22 12:47
Will the US federal government take a stake in Anduril Industries, Inc.? No +4 $3 89¢ $4 +$1 10-10 16:26
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? Yes +20 $3 19¢ $4 +$1 10-01 21:55
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +4 $3 81¢ $4 +$0 10-22 15:06
Will Oklahoma State have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season? No +4 $3 81¢ $3 $0 10-04 18:25
Will exactly 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? Yes +5 $2 62¢ $3 +$1 09-27 14:23
Will Layne Riggs win the 2026 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series championship? No +4 $3 64¢ $3 $0 10-24 15:18
Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election? No +3 $2 80¢ $2 +$0 10-26 14:51
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +3 $1 78¢ $2 +$1 10-19 12:40
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026? No +3 $3 62¢ $2 -$1 10-19 13:07
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes -1,000 -$4 0¢ $-2 +$2 07-07 14:22
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026 No +2 $1 70¢ $1 +$0 10-16 20:32
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No +2 $1 76¢ $1 +$0 10-12 10:27
elon musk of tweets october 30 november 6 2026 300 319 Yes +4 $1 26¢ $1 +$1 10-27 07:21
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1 $1 82¢ $1 +$0 09-25 22:07
Will You Can See Everything win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? No +2 $1 38¢ $1 $0 10-17 18:13
Brazil's top courts strike down oil export tax by December 31, 2027? No +1 $2 85¢ $1 -$1 10-30 00:01
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027? Yes +1 $1 74¢ $1 $0 10-21 18:02
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026? Yes +2 $1 36¢ $1 $0 10-02 22:49
Next Muse Wonder (1.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $1 78¢ $1 +$0 10-30 04:26
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +1 $1 79¢ $1 +$0 10-20 21:02
Will Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy? No +1 $1 76¢ $1 +$0 10-28 04:40
Will Export-control chip security become law this year? No +1 $1 57¢ $0 $0 10-24 04:06
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +0 $0 88¢ $0 +$0 10-19 09:59
will missouri enact a data center moratorium by december 31 2027 Yes +1 $0 20¢ $0 $0 09-29 18:14
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +1 $0 29¢ $0 $0 10-04 08:32
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +1 $0 15¢ $0 $0 10-19 23:10