Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$537

Unrealized P&L

+$542

Hit rate

53.6%

Resolved

67,643

Trades

198,508

lifetime

Volume

$107.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$226

8 positions

First seen

2026-06-11

last 10-27 04:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 8% +$720

Other

11% 10% -$182

Politics

1% 0% -$1

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 6202 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+100	$86	88¢	$88	+$2	10-22 15:28
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+90	$49	68¢	$62	+$13	10-21 23:50
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+75	$54	74¢	$56	+$2	10-21 20:41
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	+50	$14	22¢	$11	-$3	10-26 15:18
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	+61	$14	17¢	$10	-$4	10-24 19:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$1	94¢	$0	+$1	10-22 16:46
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+0	$0	24¢	$0	+$0	10-26 18:10
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	-$530	6¢	$0	+$530	10-15 12:30

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$1.3K	2,028	2,028	+0	open	—	10-15 12:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	6	$851	461	461	+0	open	—	10-22 16:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	6	$190	270	180	+90	open	—	10-21 23:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	83	$150	320	0	+320	Down	+$33	09-22 12:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	12	$145	280	0	+280	Up	+$30	10-02 02:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:15 UTC	1	$142	150	0	+150	Down	+$8	10-16 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$142	152	0	+152	Down	-$142	10-19 00:13
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	3	$138	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	5	$124	150	68	+82	Down	-$56	10-08 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	8	$117	151	50	+101	Down	+$3	10-12 15:19
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$117	78	78	+0	Yes	-$1	08-28 13:35
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$115	120	0	+120	Down	+$5	10-21 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	46	$104	204	0	+204	Down	-$25	09-22 12:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	3	$103	125	0	+125	Up	+$22	10-16 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	17	$103	166	0	+166	Up	-$33	10-02 02:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 18:00 UTC	4	$100	100	50	+50	Up	-$25	10-14 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 11:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 21:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 09:05 UTC	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 09:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 21:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-19 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-19 05:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-19 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	3	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 22:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 22:10 UTC	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-17 22:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-19 01:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 19:10 UTC	1	$99	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-16 19:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 04:48:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x5b4d53…
10-27 03:42:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	16	84¢	$14	0xc87fea…
10-27 01:40:18	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0x9e42c7…
10-27 01:03:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0xe5c0a8…
10-26 23:16:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	59	22¢	$13	0x56542e…
10-26 19:22:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb7f881…
10-26 19:22:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x3bd4d1…
10-26 18:10:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xcdd656…
10-26 17:04:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	61	73¢	$45	0x95e6f2…
10-26 15:18:54	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x36fdc2…
10-26 15:18:39	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xbc8438…
10-26 14:17:59	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa24b21…
10-26 06:45:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x1cc70f…
10-25 23:14:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x65b110…
10-25 17:34:39	Will the New Jersey Devils record 100+ points?	Yes	SELL	19	48¢	$9	0x959e19…
10-25 15:37:54	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	34	35¢	$12	0xaac429…
10-25 12:44:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x4d344f…
10-25 12:31:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xd1c892…
10-25 12:14:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	25	41¢	$10	0xdf5b1e…
10-25 12:14:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	55	41¢	$23	0xbe5e62…
10-25 11:39:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	80	42¢	$34	0x6d2b31…
10-25 09:49:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x899f3f…
10-25 09:18:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x2140e9…
10-25 07:32:54	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x42f867…
10-25 07:14:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0xd274b2…
10-25 05:47:47	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x05b8f5…
10-25 05:07:12	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x815f5b…
10-25 03:45:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x22f425…
10-24 22:45:14	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x746880…
10-24 21:36:12	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x6f2949…
10-24 19:32:27	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xa187b5…
10-24 19:32:27	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9964c8…
10-24 19:24:11	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	61	23¢	$14	0x1c3ebb…
10-24 15:59:02	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	17¢	$8	0x0a81f5…
10-24 15:52:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	40	21¢	$8	0x3a03aa…
10-24 15:35:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xc57ae2…
10-24 15:35:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x045123…
10-24 15:18:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0xff6f82…
10-24 11:44:51	Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x7e593e…
10-24 11:32:32	Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$5	0x1d7cd3…
10-23 23:54:29	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x80763b…
10-23 23:27:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	41	78¢	$32	0x76bb40…
10-23 23:23:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x13f558…
10-23 23:20:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0xe3dce0…
10-23 23:11:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x8a8614…
10-23 23:06:51	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x974b46…
10-23 23:03:50	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe10d31…
10-23 23:02:42	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x101543…
10-23 21:14:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0xae7bc7…
10-23 21:08:56	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x2e3641…
10-23 20:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	75	98¢	$74	0x4a8ba6…
10-23 19:15:30	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x8a1b3d…
10-23 19:15:29	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xbead05…
10-23 19:14:56	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xfe3e3e…
10-23 15:39:39	Will the New Jersey Devils record 100+ points?	Yes	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xe5e8ef…
10-23 15:27:32	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x662bbd…
10-23 15:18:20	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x4178b6…
10-23 15:18:17	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x7faa1b…
10-23 11:04:02	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x9a8bef…
10-23 09:55:12	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x9c21b6…
10-23 08:53:59	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0xb64f19…
10-23 08:14:36	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	61	95¢	$58	0x3dbb3d…
10-23 08:03:30	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x14ecce…
10-23 08:03:26	BNB Up or Down - October 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x74a0c8…
10-23 02:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	65	97¢	$63	0x74725f…
10-23 02:32:45	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x4dc6a8…
10-23 02:32:32	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x3798de…
10-23 02:32:27	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x330aa9…
10-23 01:57:44	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x0ff414…
10-23 01:57:38	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0ba4d9…
10-23 01:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0xc64d53…
10-23 01:08:48	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x879a73…
10-23 01:08:21	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x95f307…
10-23 00:58:36	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x815648…
10-22 18:47:14	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	4	95¢	$3	0x8d9838…
10-22 18:21:48	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa94ee7…
10-22 18:13:56	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x9ead57…
10-22 17:28:53	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0x26f0aa…
10-22 17:28:15	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x41455e…
10-22 17:17:02	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x0777d6…
10-22 16:59:11	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xc665f9…
10-22 16:58:14	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x16f0d7…
10-22 16:57:53	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	SELL	90	41¢	$37	0x6ccea6…
10-22 16:57:08	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x050306…
10-22 16:57:06	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0xc30c17…
10-22 16:52:14	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	95¢	$3	0x61be96…
10-22 16:46:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	428	94¢	$402	0x1c67d6…
10-22 16:44:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	428	94¢	$402	0x24ceef…
10-22 16:33:35	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	49	96¢	$47	0xbcba03…
10-22 16:03:30	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xe74ede…
10-22 15:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x901b65…
10-22 15:55:00	Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	90	40¢	$36	0x352ccc…
10-22 15:37:39	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0xe59727…
10-22 15:33:48	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfdef9e…
10-22 15:32:56	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x05e4a8…
10-22 15:28:24	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x350abe…
10-22 15:14:39	Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x5dcd89…
10-22 15:13:53	XRP Up or Down - October 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x49f25d…
10-22 15:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	75	97¢	$73	0x7f65ae…
10-22 15:12:09	BNB Up or Down - October 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	97¢	$9	0x37d608…