Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$198

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

74.5%

Resolved (90d)

11,392

Trades (90d)

31,943

198,282 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$61.5K

$108.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$140

9 positions

First seen

2026-06-11

last 11-06 00:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Crypto

88% 8% +$728

Other

11% 10% +$327

Politics

1% 0% -$21

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 996 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	+90	$49	78¢	$70	+$21	10-21 23:50
Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	+75	$54	76¢	$57	+$3	10-21 20:41
Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?	No	+30	$11	29¢	$9	-$3	10-18 15:25
Will Mike Lee vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	Yes	+50	$5	6¢	$3	-$2	10-24 11:32
Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 96?	No	+5	$0	21¢	$1	+$1	10-31 23:19
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	$0	92¢	$0	+$0	10-25 05:07
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+50	$6	0¢	$0	-$6	10-22 15:14
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	+1	$2	13¢	$0	-$2	11-02 03:45
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	+0	$0	12¢	$0	+$0	10-26 18:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	5	$1.3K	2,028	2,028	+0	No	+$530	10-15 12:30
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	6	$851	461	461	+0	Yes	+$1	10-22 16:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	6	$190	270	180	+90	open	—	10-21 23:50
Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$154	100	100	+0	open	—	11-04 17:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	83	$150	320	0	+320	Down	+$33	09-22 12:33
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?	1	$149	157	0	+157	Yes	+$8	10-29 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	12	$145	280	0	+280	Up	+$30	10-02 02:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 23:15 UTC	1	$142	150	0	+150	Down	+$8	10-16 23:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	1	$142	152	0	+152	Down	-$142	10-19 00:13
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -3.00 to -1.01 ft by November 30?	3	$138	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	5	$124	150	68	+82	Down	-$56	10-08 16:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	8	$117	151	50	+101	Down	+$3	10-12 15:19
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$117	78	78	+0	Yes	-$1	08-28 13:35
XRP Up or Down - October 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	1	$115	120	0	+120	Down	+$5	10-21 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	46	$104	204	0	+204	Down	-$25	09-22 12:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-16 15:40 UTC	3	$103	125	0	+125	Up	+$22	10-16 15:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	17	$103	166	0	+166	Up	-$33	10-02 02:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-14 18:00 UTC	4	$100	100	50	+50	Up	-$25	10-14 18:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 19:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 11:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-18 08:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 21:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-18 09:05 UTC	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 09:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 21:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-19 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	2	$100	100	0	+100	Down	+$0	10-19 05:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$1	10-19 00:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 20:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	3	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-18 22:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-17 22:10 UTC	1	$100	100	0	+100	Up	+$0	10-17 22:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 00:48:03	Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x5791d4…
11-05 23:20:19	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	No	SELL	41	51¢	$21	0x8f1312…
11-05 15:19:24	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	SELL	36	7¢	$2	0x3af805…
11-04 22:06:16	Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x0723d9…
11-04 17:34:52	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	100	78¢	$78	0xd1bcc2…
11-04 11:01:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xd37c0e…
11-04 07:41:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	38	81¢	$31	0xe65492…
11-03 18:10:04	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x7bd5e6…
11-03 18:01:15	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-28 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xf7acfc…
11-03 15:29:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0xdc44f8…
11-03 04:38:09	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	60	22¢	$13	0x715fe3…
11-02 07:34:21	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	70	20¢	$14	0xe5b8b8…
11-02 03:45:03	Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	9¢	$3	0x636626…
11-02 01:34:15	Will Anthropic be the #3 AI Lab at the end of November 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0xf68a9f…
11-01 17:21:00	Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0xbae873…
11-01 12:42:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x96d349…
11-01 11:19:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xeb1967…
11-01 03:14:28	Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	16¢	$5	0x036fc3…
11-01 01:44:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x5f8385…
10-31 23:19:06	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 96?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xe3ecf7…
10-31 22:01:30	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	BUY	70	20¢	$14	0x722e10…
10-31 16:37:54	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0x9eb8df…
10-31 11:14:25	Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x9c14b5…
10-31 00:56:24	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xcbe427…
10-31 00:45:06	Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x73b95b…
10-30 23:52:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x362317…
10-30 20:24:33	NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?	Yes	BUY	36	13¢	$5	0xf640ac…
10-30 19:15:31	Will Avengers: Doomsday rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xad85ac…
10-30 18:19:12	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x52099d…
10-30 14:32:03	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?	Yes	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x822c0e…
10-30 12:16:16	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	24¢	$19	0x658da9…
10-30 12:10:24	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	31¢	$25	0xb2e120…
10-30 10:35:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-02 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x84a0fc…
10-30 05:14:07	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 20%-30%?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x71709a…
10-30 01:40:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 20%-30%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xc9b582…
10-30 00:26:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-28 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	0	32¢	$0	0x0d2146…
10-29 23:15:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-28 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x1b3518…
10-29 23:14:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-02 House election by 30%-35%?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x836601…
10-29 22:29:22	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x98c946…
10-29 21:56:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 GA-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xb8cd46…
10-29 20:43:16	Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	157	95¢	$149	0x99d59f…
10-29 17:46:40	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x4d0698…
10-29 17:41:31	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0x2748e5…
10-29 16:20:14	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	50	22¢	$11	0x0b82e4…
10-29 15:14:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 55%-60%?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x4b2c0a…
10-29 15:14:55	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election by 4%-8%?	Yes	BUY	14	19¢	$3	0x26b075…
10-29 11:55:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	16	75¢	$12	0xa0dd77…
10-29 08:01:44	Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0xa00a56…
10-29 03:34:10	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0x923f4c…
10-29 03:15:19	Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x63ac73…
10-28 22:57:31	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xfa9867…
10-28 21:06:22	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xba0c9a…
10-28 20:02:22	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	Yes	SELL	61	19¢	$12	0x6b2312…
10-28 19:22:20	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	SELL	70	18¢	$13	0xeb48c5…
10-28 17:38:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	40	82¢	$33	0xa491e1…
10-28 15:44:13	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Wyoming gubernatorial election by 50% or more?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x1a701a…
10-28 14:38:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	40	15¢	$6	0xe034fc…
10-28 07:16:34	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 12%-15%?	Yes	BUY	70	20¢	$14	0xd98e8a…
10-28 05:39:25	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	23¢	$8	0xbccddf…
10-28 03:25:52	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x5c31f3…
10-28 02:19:56	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	21¢	$10	0x4a3f5f…
10-27 23:21:15	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0xdb7cd3…
10-27 18:06:17	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$3	0xcd88d4…
10-27 16:25:06	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xc5a688…
10-27 15:26:11	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0xb976e7…
10-27 14:46:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	59	23¢	$14	0x04b363…
10-27 11:14:56	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0xa4bc1a…
10-27 10:58:45	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Yes	BUY	36	21¢	$8	0xef7e78…
10-27 04:48:32	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-13 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x5b4d53…
10-27 03:42:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 CO-05 House election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	16	84¢	$14	0xc87fea…
10-27 01:40:18	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0x9e42c7…
10-27 01:03:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0xe5c0a8…
10-26 23:16:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	59	22¢	$13	0x56542e…
10-26 19:22:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xb7f881…
10-26 19:22:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-01 House election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x3bd4d1…
10-26 18:10:57	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xcdd656…
10-26 17:04:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	61	73¢	$45	0x95e6f2…
10-26 15:18:54	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	62¢	$6	0x36fdc2…
10-26 15:18:39	Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	28¢	$14	0xbc8438…
10-26 14:17:59	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xa24b21…
10-26 06:45:26	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	14	22¢	$3	0x1cc70f…
10-25 23:14:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	60	22¢	$13	0x65b110…
10-25 17:34:39	Will the New Jersey Devils record 100+ points?	Yes	SELL	19	48¢	$9	0x959e19…
10-25 15:37:54	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	Yes	BUY	34	35¢	$12	0xaac429…
10-25 12:44:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x4d344f…
10-25 12:31:05	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xd1c892…
10-25 12:14:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	25	41¢	$10	0xdf5b1e…
10-25 12:14:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	SELL	55	41¢	$23	0xbe5e62…
10-25 11:39:35	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-05 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	80	42¢	$34	0x6d2b31…
10-25 09:49:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x899f3f…
10-25 09:18:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-02 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x2140e9…
10-25 07:32:54	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x42f867…
10-25 07:14:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MI-13 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	14	27¢	$4	0xd274b2…
10-25 05:47:47	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	7	40¢	$3	0x05b8f5…
10-25 05:07:12	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x815f5b…
10-25 03:45:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x22f425…
10-24 22:45:14	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x746880…
10-24 21:36:12	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x6f2949…
10-24 19:32:27	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0xa187b5…
10-24 19:32:27	Will Indiana have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x9964c8…