Realized P&L
+$23.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.13K
Hit rate
72.6%
Resolved
1,340
Trades
34,381
lifetime
Volume
$1.14M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$33
Open exposure
$5.54K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-09
last 11-04 13:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 229 days
Categories
Politics
57% 65% +$14,245
Other
34% 54% +$7,452
Tech
5% 60% +$995
Sports
4% 60% +$208
Crypto
0% 53% +$69
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 517 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? Yes +2,645 $1,316 67¢ $1.8K +$460 11-01 01:49
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No +2,645 $716 33¢ $869 +$152 10-20 02:54
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +655 $163 65¢ $426 +$263 10-26 22:36
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? Yes +390 -$572 88¢ $345 +$918 09-22 10:27
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -300 -$267 99¢ $-297 -$30 04-30 16:24
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +745 $325 35¢ $261 -$64 11-02 16:03
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No +270 $74 90¢ $242 +$168 08-17 03:12
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No -270 -$233 88¢ $-239 -$5 06-15 20:27
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No -240 -$208 73¢ $-175 +$34 06-16 04:36
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +207 $5 64¢ $133 +$128 10-26 22:37
will a hurricane make landfall in hawaii before 2027 20260721182828397 No +135 $98 96¢ $130 +$31 08-16 09:47
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No -100 -$75 96¢ $-96 -$21 07-31 03:01
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +85 -$63 92¢ $79 +$141 09-24 17:06
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +207 $82 36¢ $73 -$9 10-06 02:00
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes -240 -$43 27¢ $-65 -$22 06-19 21:16
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes -81 -$9 60¢ $-49 -$40 08-24 14:08
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? No +390 $156 12¢ $45 -$111 09-26 01:56
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No +50 $36 88¢ $44 +$9 09-06 13:47
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No -81 -$65 40¢ $-32 +$33 09-22 04:01
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes -270 -$39 12¢ $-31 +$8 06-27 01:51
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes +270 $854 11¢ $28 -$825 09-27 07:01
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No -28 -$25 99¢ $-27 -$2 08-27 04:47
Discord IPO before 2027? No -27 -$4 94¢ $-25 -$21 10-27 23:31
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? No +23 $19 98¢ $22 +$4 08-13 03:54
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -300 -$30 4¢ $-12 +$18 04-30 16:23
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +85 $50 8¢ $6 -$44 06-20 17:12
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? Yes +135 $46 4¢ $5 -$41 09-09 07:27
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes -100 -$37 4¢ $-4 +$33 07-31 03:00
Discord IPO before 2027? Yes +76 $39 6¢ $4 -$35 10-19 01:28
us x iran diplomatic meeting by december 31 2026 20260922 No +5 $3 58¢ $3 $0 10-14 15:46